Member Info for extrader

Hi adoubleuk,

Interesting spot !

What scenarios for hanging around do you have in mind, please, since I'd have thought getting the AM to 'home waters' without incident would be a worthwhile de-blackswanner…;->

ATB

Hi tomshare,

Thanks for this extra straw in the wind...and that MM now accepts that formal port news will be an RNSable event.

Get drafting, AT !

ATB

Hi Mitch984,

Thanks for this.

I agree EPP is likely to be the next positive price-mover and is more within ZIOP's control Hopefully the presentation due late Sept/early Oct will provide some meat.

EPP seems to be a 2-parter : an interim measure to prove up the cold polymerisation technology, using pre-new port workarounds; and then a great way of juicing returns post new port as we progress to Stage 1.

The economics of the first part aren't likely to be great, because of the lack of economies of scale and the inefficiencies of any work-around - trucking up to the Gabon railhead or whatever.

From a lender's perspective, this and the possibility of the 'interim' becoming open-ended if there's a delay to the new port will be seen as increasing risk, esp. given the new technology.

One way of addressing these issues at a stroke would be for GLEN to sign a 'take or pay' agreement re EPP production. Or it could be the European steel mill. If GLEN, apart from confidence in the technology, it would be a relatively inexpensive signal to potential predators of their 'skin in the game'....and play to their marketing strengths.

ATB

Hi shaun86,

Look at AIM Rules for Companies - Disclosure http://www.lseg.com/sites/default/files/content/documents/aim/AIM_Rules_for_Companies_July16.pdf

(d) Information that would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities includes but is not limited to information which is of a kind which a reasonable investor would be likely to use as part of the basis of his or her investment decisions.

QED

Hi guys,

I've now found this http://www.crbc.com/site/crbcEN/77953/info/2016/46841231.html which gives the specs I was looking for.

It's dated back in Feb 2018 and at first glance looks like a 'done deal'. The commentary refers back to the genesis in 2013 and confirms a 4 1 /2 year construction period when they break ground, no date given, tho Jan 2019 has been mentioned elsewhere.

Four months after the event, late June 2018 , ZIOC tells us that they're helping CRBC (with the LoI's) progress the financing.

Mid Sept 2018, post FOCAC , ZIOC apparently don't yet feel things are sufficiently advanced to make any kind of comment on what we're all agreed is the key to unlocking value.

They're the experts on mining and Africa, and know what they're doing (or why are you invested ?). So let's be guided by them ...and leave it at that.

What difference do day-to-day shareprice movements make - unless you're a trader ?

As Benjmin Graham has said "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine"

Value will out here - in the fullness of time.

ATB

Hi Riskisgood,

I'm not sure we can ...and please don't co-opt me by misrepresenting my position.

Quoting from your same source, here's what ZIOC say :

.."ZIOC notes that there is still discussion between the RoC Government, China EXIM Bank and China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) on the financing and development plan for the NEW BULK MATERIALS PORT DEVELOPMENT north of Pointe Noire

§ Advancement of the new port development COULD PROVIDE A KEY CATALYST in allowing the Zanaga 12Mtpa Stage One development project to derisk and proceed towards seeking finance."

ZIOC refer to the bit they're interested in - the port. They haven't even 'noted' the recent SEZ news.

Your quote shows CRBC is - sensibly - gathering evidence (the LoI's) that the demand ie commercial viability is there, making the case to EXIMBank why it should bankroll the port development , for all 5 exporters, incl. presumably Cominco and SAPRO.

None of ZIOC ,COMINCO nor (Congolese) SAPRO Mayoko have RNS'd or commented anywhere in the press AFAIAA on a deal material to all of them, nor can I find any reference to contract signature for port development using google.

Don't you find this a bit odd ? I'd expect banner headlines, with lots of detail re project specifications and capacity, amount and tenor of EXIMBank financing, local C-B involvement (if any) etc etc. Plus all the political mileage to milk.

So far ? Nothing. Zilch. Nada.

This is a black swan issue : I only need to see 1 black swan to agree your point of view.
Maybe we'll see one tomorrow - and I'm not posting from Perth ;->

Hope this clarifies and ATB

Hi Riskisgood,

Thanks for that. Cominco's graphic shows 'proposed port facilities' and 'proposed jetty and shiploader' , which seems to be the bit that they intend using. Their graphic also shows a proposed power plant south of existing PN, so clearly not part of the SEZ.

On that score - and also from Hopton/twitter - is the ref to the PROPOSED power plant I mentioned : …"
Thursday, August 30, 2018

The Chinese company Yunnan Linkun will carry out, in partnership with the government, two major projects for the construction of a multifunctional economic zone in the capital and a gas-fired combined cycle gas station from 1100 to 2200 MW in Pointe-Noire.

The two projects, together with others, were presented on August 29 in Brazzaville, in the presence of the Minister of State for Economy and Industry, Gilbert Ondongo, the CEO of the company of the same name, Yuan Linkun , and other personalities.

"Linkun's combined cycle gas plant is a support project for the Pointe-Noire Special Economic Zone," Yuan Linkun said, adding that Congolese debt to China has little impact on the feasibility of this project. .

http://www.adiac-congo.com/content/developpement-une-zone-economique-multifonctionnelle-construire-brazzaville-88293

We need the power as well as the port, at least we now have a name to put to the SEZpower plant, although it's early days - as the range of output (between 1100MW and 2200MW) and the article's conclusion : ("The Congo and the Chinese society have already signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation of these projects, the feasibility studies of which have been completed. ") suggest

Note : MoU, not contract.

ATB

Hi Riskisgood,

Looking again at the list of facilities inside the SEZ (..a power station, storage areas, a potash treatment plant, a smelter, a refinery (the 2nd of the country), a shopping center, etc ), this looks more like a wishlist , maybe from back in 2014.

Hasn't there been some news recently about a 1,000- 2,000 MW power station by the Chinese (can't find a link atm), which would suggest a piece-meal approach ?

ATB

Hi NewKotB,

Your link is the same as mine and doesn't show land acquisition, just the various areas that different parties have proposed be included inside the SEZ. The 4th of which - Jurong - is what I pointed out when we were getting excited about Everitt being both a new shareholder's surname and the name of a subsidiary of Temasek, indicating some possible Singapore SWF interest.

ATB

Hi sandcrab,

I think you can square the circle by saying that PointeNoire SEZ isn't (confusingly) at Pointe Noire (existing port) but a few miles up the coast at/near Pointe Indienne......

What's your handle on advfn, btw ?

ATB

Me again,

looking at it another way, the 'zone portuaire' IS indeed part of the SEZ (maybe that's where that list of proposed facilities will be located), the business end ie the PORT itself, wharves, jetties , cranes etc isn't.

It would be helpful to see what's on the plan that the Chinese were discussing a few months back....

ATB

Hi Riskisgood,

Thanks for engaging. If you look at the map on the same link http://zes.gouv.cg/sites/default/files/carte_zes_pn3.jpg, it would seem that the new port is NOT part of the SEZ, since it clearly lies outside its boundaries.

The list of things described as in it ." a power station, storage areas, a potash treatment plant, a smelter, a refinery (the 2nd of the country), a shopping center, etc" also doesn't seem appropriate for (unstable ?) reclaimed land....

Maybe they've just not updated the website/drawings.

If there's a civil engineer out there, maybe they'd comment ?

Sooty : I think AT was saying that they'd use/tweak something in the existing port for EPP as an interim measure.

I'm sure ZIOC will update the market as soon as there's something concrete to report (boom ! boom !).

ATB

Hi gods,

Too subtle...;->

ATB

Hi Maffy

…"no announcement of the PN SEZ at FOCAC! Unfortunately for them it came to light the very next day .."

Actually, it's the NEW PORT that matters to ZIOP (so ZIOC itself has told us) it's the cornerstone of their business plan ….and so far they haven't RNS'd anything on the matter. DYOC.

People used to leave a decent interval before attempting to rewrite history...

ATB

Hi all,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXaLu7bvke8

ATB

Hi Mitch984,

Thanks for your measured post, your views on likely timeframe and potential shareprice as we go forward is one I share, FWLIW.

A 60p+ sp for EPP would be more than enough to trigger my 49p limit sell order - and hence derisk the balance 90% of my holding - leaving me more relaxed about the timing of the end-game.

Bring it on !

ATB

Hi all,

Amidst all the bunfighting and hand-bag swinging, I'd like to echo the question somebody posted earlier : what would anybody chancing on this board think of the current goings-on ?

This board USED to have a good signal-to-noise ratio and sensible interaction.

We've only recently been joined by dspp and hopefully some of the other more thoughtful posters from The Lemon Fool will follow....

I wouldn't be surprised if he / they are reconsidering whether they should bother to look in (and, hopefully, post ) ....which would be our collective loss.

"Is your journey really necessary ? " was a famous wartime slogan.

Maybe we should all ask ourselves the same question re our posting, before hitting the 'send' button....

Have a great weekend, everybody.

ATB

…"Dave - it's Tomshares…"

Nah ! It's ex-tom...

Hi tomshare,

…"You seem to think you are some authoritative figure on this messgeboard whereby every post needs to have your blessing...."

Not at all. If somebody posts something interesting that I already know/have separately checked, that's useful confirmation. If I don't know it, I ask for their source/the basis on which they make the comment. If what they say is demonstrably untrue, I call them on it. What do you do ?

Some people on BB's are 'economical' with the actualite, so that seems just (un)common sense.

If you can't or won't support your recent statement, that's fair enough. It tends to devalue the rest of your postings, which is a pity, because you obviously know a lot of stuff I don't. So probably my loss. How you interpret my approach as 'patronising' escapes me.

As to your invitation that I prove the little statement that "no one from Glencore is on the operational team of Jumelles" , you must be confusing me with someone else : the starting point of our exchange was my asking you for the source of YOUR info re Jumelles' structure BECAUSE I DIDN'T KNOW IT.

If this board weren't so dysfunctional, some kind person would have chipped in with the info by now...and we'd all be that little bit wiser.

Have a good weekend.
ATB

Hi tomshare,

…"He is wrong about the make up and workings of Jummelles."

Thanks for the intervention. Unfortunately, just saying 'you're wrong' isn't adding value, it's a dialogue of the deaf.

I'm happy to get more information , regardless of source - it helps to "turn heat into light".

In that spirit, could you share with us what the facts of the matter are : I assume the composition of the Jumelles (sp) board is a matter of record somewhere (I haven't seen it, so grateful if you would share), but the workings....?

ATB