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Exactly my point Thurg. They have not done the small scale testing (MSW to fuels). This is the issue they will have when it comes to getting the banks technical advisors happy.

The aforementioned can afford it, however shareholders wont allow it at such an early stage. Until more progress is made on engineering to further de-risk the project, substantial funds will not be forthcoming. As I say repeatedly on here, Velocys are miles away from commercial activity. There simply has not been enough water under the bridge to attract funding of this magnitude.
As for the stalwarts 'jumping ship', why would they? The SP is so depressed, the funds theyd release from doing so would barely cover the legal costs of doing so. Whats needed is a large investment by an AI and these funds should go directly toward the demonstrating the fundamentals of the waste to fuel process and paying for the project engineering. These are the pieces of the pie that at lacking at this time - but such funding has a high risk of not providing a return, so its a tough gig to find n outfit prepared to spend.

the Project is years away from being 'fully funded'. Fully funded means someone has committed 150m cash and arranged debt to the tune of 300m GBP, both of which are extremely unlikely at this stage. The best case, should PP be granted and followed with an announcement, is that a few more million GBP has been pumped in to finish all the engineering.

Getting PP doesn't affect the fundamentals - its a box ticking milestone. The next one is the engineering which is this area the banks will scrutinise. The biggest challenge for VLS on this front is a lack of demo scale 'MSW to Fuel' experience. Yes, their FT works, but they've not tested the entire process.

Nachez project is woody biomass, not MSW. I dont think that project is going anywhere either, now you mention it.
I refer to 'we' out of habit. I did have a significant holding in VLS, however I'm now firmly on the sidelines until i see a blue chip investor turn up.

Anyone know if Fulcrum is planning to build in the UK? Looking at this video, their waste to jet fuel project is imminent. Shame we aren't as advanced as these guys, we'd be instantly out of business if they decided to build something here!

https://youtu.be/2IR4l3aI2z4

Of course they want it to go ahead. What they want and what they may nessesarily get, could differ...

wrong. In the waste to energy space, there are countless projects that go for PP without a plan for subsequent financing. They do it to sell-on the project - but normally these projects are proven technologies costing in the order of 150-200m. We are talking new tech in our case, costing 500m+. Aint gonna happen.
The ability to get a planning application does not affect the financial or technical viability of the company or project. The investors (the real ones, not the PR hunters, pumping in a few million), know this. No investment house will risk hundreds of millions of pounds worth of pension money on a company with no track record and for a project that has not been done before, even at a small scale (VLS have not completed a MSWel process at small scale).

You also don't appreciate the funding needed to actually get to the point of financing. We are probably talking 10-20m of more work to get to the point of FID, then you'll need 150m of captial Only then can you get financier air time, and there's no guarantee you'll get that loan.
Its a great concept - but its being done too big, too fast and by a company that should be sticking with technology development, not project development.

I have plenty of experience in the waste to energy sector, that relates directly to this. Its hard enough trying to introduce new technology to an existing market, but trying to do the same with a new market simultaneously (fuels) will be nigh on impossible unless your pockets are bottomless, or you have blue chips on you BOD. VLS leadership changes too much, which says alot. If the track record is anything to go by, I suspect more departures of key staff in the near future.

Granting of Planning permission has nothing to do with financial viability of the applicants business.
The VLS application is a good one (Ive seen some terrible ones), but falls a little short on required detail to get a clear affirmative and this can be seen from the EA responses.

Thug, you're being a touch delusional. VLS will be out of funds in about 3 months and I doubt a raise will happen any time soon. IMHO, VLS will not get this project funded - its first of type, waaay too expensive there's no capital available (at least 150million pounds needed). Shell are only in this for a punt, whilst BA are getting great PR. If VLS goes belly up, either party can wash their hands of us quite easily and switch to something with better legs. Investors will 'get out' of the project by way of not investing any more funds. F4C wont be forthcoming, if atall, with all that's going on in UKGov.

Planning permission wont happen next week - quite a few outstanding issues on the application, particularity around the water cleaning. I think end of year at best.

Looks like Shell is expanding their scope and partnering with more projects. As usual, no real commitments - just technical and commercial support...

https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3083791/shell-supports-europes-first-sustainable-aviation-fuel-plant

it does work. But their ability to design, finance and build a full scale plant is the main question. They will be out of money by February at this burn rate.

no mans land is an adept description of the current situation. What this means in practice is that VLS need a bundle of cash to get them from now until 2024 and an operational plant - ie, pay for all the engineering (6m), consulting (1m), permitting (500k), payroll (19m) and project capital (150m). So we need about 180m to get the plant engineered, built and pay people in the interim.
Quite sobering when you look at the bigger picture.
If Fulcrum and Enerkem can do it, there at least some proof it can be done. VLS just need to know the key ingredient in Enerkems sauce, that's enabled them to get the money.

Agreed. It does however show the ability of Fulcrum and Enerkem to get things financed; his is an area VLS seem to struggle with. I also agree with you about VLS looking for the right place to participate. IMHO, this should be the FT tech that they are proud of. Leave the building of big and expensive plants to the seasoned developers,and hopefully, enable them to use the VLS reactors.

Fulcum have already built 2 projects. The waste processing plant and the refinery itself. In this respec, I dont think you can compare VLS and Fuclum. The latter are leagues ahead.
http://fulcrum-bioenergy.com/facilities/

It appears BP were first to the plate on this a few years ago and Shell are playing catch-up. If anything, it'll be BP ensurng Shell dont get a march on them and will probably support Fulcum to ensure this doenst happen. If Fulcrum arrive in the UK and announce a project, Im not sure how this will affect VLS. It could finish them or help them - not sure.

To further add (if i can without being shot at). Aside from the technology readiness, there's the seemingly lack of ability for VLS to raise funding and im talking proper funding, not 400k from Japan and a few million from BA. Comparing Fulcrum again, they seem to able to keep getting investors on board and finding $300m of funding to build a plant. Clearly they have something VLS dont. I dont know what that is, but i suspect the leadership turnover of VLS might have something to do with it. It just doesn't give the right impression.
Once the Fuklcrum plant is built, VLS can point at that as the first commercial, but then the focus will be on VLS to deliver as a developer and they don't have that credibility yet.
VLS need to hunker down, concentrate on engineering, stop spinning PR and mix in the right circles. Then they will have a good chance of being successful. I also think a return to making good FT units rather than project developing might be a good idea. Stick to what you're good at imho.

This must be BP's partnership with Fulcrum, being alluded to. Looks to me that the Shell/VLS partnership is a copy-past of the BP/Fulcrum partnership. Seems like the BP version is a better bet though, given they are actually building a plant already.
BP/Fulrum should come to the UK and give some lessons to VLS!

Sorry, but the technology is far from proven. Yes, the VLS FT reactors may have some running time, but not on synags from waste. Neither has anyone ran a waste to fuel plant at this scale. Remember the FT section is a small part of a big machine. BA and Shell will need to bring to the table a substantial amount of money, if VLS stand any chance of getting bank finance. They simply wont back a project of this scale and cost, with no prior experience.

Im trying to work out an entry point. Until I see something positive and realistic to bet on, I'll be on the sidelines. All I see is marketing and PR; the banks see right through it. When material progress arrives, and the project goes from 'puntable' to 'investable', I'll be in.

in addtion, Henrik has stated a 2024 time frame for operations. Assuming a 2 year construction period, that takes us back to 2022. Give another 6 months or so for admin and EPC selection, we are then mid 2021 - so about 2 years from now to FID....

thanks both. So aside from the conditional funding (F4C etc), and a White knight that could show up, we are looking at March next year for a raise.

2 years until FID on a good day. Going off the PP submission, VLS have alot of engineering and feasibility work to do before then. Again and as stated, my views are based on a waste to energy background.