Member Info for expatbrat

Really? Final investment decision for Immingham is probably 2 years away, so i doubt they have that much left in the kitty?

Does anyone know what the cash burn rate is for VLS? Im looking to work out when the next share issue might happen.

indeed. Mostly through carbon offsets.

On many of these topics, I base my comments on experience. Ive been working in the waste-to-energy industry for many years and know how these things work. Planning always takes longer than well, planned, funding is a continual challenge even with known technology.
On project funding, you will not be anywhere close to getting project funding in place at such an early stage. You have a huge list of items to box off before a bank will even agree to discuss it seriously - including PP. There is an element of punting going on with getting PP in place as there is no guarantee you'll get your project funded.

On the F4C, you'll note there are several winners. It was previously suggested by TG that the latest round of F4C could be driven by VLS planning app. This would be unfair on others, who could be further ahead, so is unlikely to be the cause.

There are more F4C winners that just VLS. It would be terribly unfair to leave all other winners hanging by a thread, in order to wait for VLS to secure Planning. In reality, VLS dont need the tax payer money anyway - they have BA and Shell ready with the readies right?
Planning costs around 400K. This would have been funded by the previous F4C round handout. Getting Planning approval wont change big picture matters in the slightest. Planning is not the main risk here - its the ability of VLS to go and secure project equity and bank funding, something which they struggle with on a good day, lets be honest.

Ill try not to gloat, but Ive been saying this for some time - things aren't quite what they seem with the F4C. My take on this is that the timescales put on the 'winners' are too tight and the F4C are giving them a chance to progress. Don't forgot round 2 of the hand-out is for construction and we are years away from that.
Also, the DFT is probably very mindful of the high risks of VLS going bust and taking all the tax-payer money with them, so they might want to see more 3rd party investment coming VLS's way before Johnny tax payer funds more development work.

Dont expect the planning to be approved by end of Nov. They'll be a whole raft of issues to sort out, that will only come out at the last minute, which is typical of such projects. I think early 2020 is more likely for Full Approval. We'll most likely see another share issue to get us there.

read the post by Loosley. More eloquent than I.
To add more colour here, Fulchrum have onboarded a whole bucket full of blue chip investors -VLS have a ABRM and a few others. No airlines, no oil companies, no strategics. To me, that's a clear indicator of market readiness that VLS cannot match.
The Shell and BA involvement is a couple of million pounds which is firmly in the punt category. They have already reaped the PR reward from this small investment.

The Wood group wouldn't touch this with a barge pole. Ive worked with them on other waste related projects and their engagement criteria is very strict whilst pricing is high. They woold risk their reputation on a project managed by an outfit that had only been developing for 18 months.

Loosely, agree with you on the gasificaiton part. This does not look to have been decided, which brings into question the accuracy of the planning submission itself. Thats a whole other can of worms, which i'll save this board from for the time being.

I dont think you can really compare Fulchrum and Velocys. Fulchrum have been developing projects for 12 years, whereas VLS have been at it for 18 months.
Flcrm have managed to fully finance their own plant, wheras VLS struggle to raise funds for the payroll. BP clearly knew what they ere doing when they invested. To me, it looks like Shell are merely copying what BP have done in the US, and looking to do the same in the UK with VLS, as Fulcrm at not present there.
As for ENVIA, that was merely a demo of the VLS FT cataysts, running off nice a clean natural gas (with a bit of methane). This demo plant is not a full 'waste to fuel', end to end process. VLS have not made any jet fuel from waste.

VLS have no experience in developing projects like this - BA and Shell are merely seeing this as a huge punt and wont be funding it by any means.

However.........thanks to Miss Thunberg, corporates are desperate to clear their name on Climate issues, so VLS might just get the support they need.

This is great messaging. However, the overwhelming issue with this project is that its never been done before and you cant just rock up to a bank and ask for half a billion pounds to build a 'first of its type' plant. It doesn't matter who's behind it - unless its proven at a smaller scale (which VLS have not done and probably don't have the money to do), it'll never be financed. The only way this will ever get built is if Shell or BA stump up the lions share of the capital needed (>60%) but their respective shareholders wont allow it. People get so carried away about the positive messaging associated with the project (of which there are many), but ignore the facts on how such projects get built.

So the end of the month has come and gone and we don't have an update on the millions up for grabs from the F4C contest. Looks like the tax payer funded cheque wont be arriving anytime soon!
But thats OK as we have Shell and BA pumping money in - for now.

is that a significant reduction?

How low will this go before a rebound?

Getting planning permission in place wont affect the sp whatsoever - you can see that getting that wont be an issue. Evidence of successful project financing will be what gets the sp moving. This is the biggest hurdle - our plant will be north of 500 million, and assuming a 70/30 d.e ratio, we'll need 150million in cash just to get going - the reality of how much this project costs, puts it all into perspective imho.

don't we need something to celebrate first?

Some bloke called Corbyn. I'm not sure who he is to be fair.

This month Ive been told.

They've already put their hands in their pockets so Government help now, by way of cheques, is a moot point. Shell will know far more about the viability of the project than the Government ever will, so the true test will be if Shell/BA pay for the next big ticket item or decide not to.

youre probably right. BA may stand behind Shell and take their lead on funding, now that its becoming an expensive proposition.
I'm losing faith the in the F4C. If I was the Dept for Transport, seeing BA and Shell pump in a few million each, Id be asking myself if Velocys actually need the grant money now. Other F4C finalist are less fortunate when it comes to partners and probably need the money more than ever.

250k should cover it. I was involved in an large gasification/incinerator project some time ago and it cost us 200k all in to submit. It was unable to achieve financial close due to lack of confidence in the technology. So a small amount of money, in the grand scheme of things.
The advanced engineering work is the expensive part, but that will come later once BA have wrote us another cheque.

normally half full.

but like to be fully informed of all the facts.