Member Info for esduk

You're a real laugh aren't you mate... No more UT chat from me, I'll just focus on the ATH POG instead.

A big decision yesterday, should prove to be a great decision by the end of the year, as you say.

The delayed reported trades so far look like a mix of c.50k buys and sells and not sufficient to drop the SP that way. We got over 550k in sells in two trades reported post close yesterday. I'd be looking for at least the same amount today to justify the crash in share price. Let's see what turns up.

I've added a few times in the 34's and low 35's.

Lots of PI top ups down here and the bid has risen to 34.5p, interesting to see whether we get any large scale buying.

Will be very interested to see the delayed trades reported post close.

There you go, 34p on the bid, looks like decent support based on Fibonacci levels and acting as resistance previously. Someone is in a hurry to drop this in a major way.

Definitely in a precious metals and precious metals shares super cycle, and one for the ages giving the way things are stacking up in macro terms. If NFP data on Friday comes in as expected there is no looking back. If it comes in worse than expected, watch POG do $100 in a day. The 50bp cut last September was one of the main catalysts for the drive north (along with Trump), and we could have a repeat.

Miners have been so beaten down for years, that the recovery in the last year has just been to get back on their feet. Once general retail and institutional investors rotate into precious mining stocks in any numbers, all bets are off. They are likely to do this as the tech bubble deflates and they start to worry about inflation. This is obviously more of a case for US, Canadian and UK listed mining shares. The Aussie general and institutional investor are already well invested in miners, but there will be plenty of US money flowing the way of Aussie listed stocks.

Yep, all looking pretty easy at the moment on the POG front. On the UT, just pointing out the facts mate. Closing auction UT is used as closing price, but is largely irrelevant and often obscures true rise or fall in SP on the day.

Must be another big off load like yesterday, otherwise they are taking the p1ss. We'll see after close.

Bought at 35.225p

Wow, they really have dropped the arse out of this on very little reported selling (so far). 35p on the bid, you may have your buy-in LockerRoom, fair play. I need to sell some gold stocks and add here.

We aren't really down today, rather we are even. Closing mid price yesterday was £2.925 (bid of £2.90 and ask of £2.95), current mid price is £2.925 (bid of £2.90 and ask of £2.95). There was just an uncrossing trade (UT) at £2.948 at the end of day closing auction, which was then used as the official closing price. Most ignore the UT unless it's for a massive amount, and it doesn't tend to impact where the MM's start the bid and ask in the next trading session.

Couple of big drops in the bid, first to 37p, just before 12pm and then to 36p just after 1pm. Must have been a few large sells in the background.

Yep, glad I bought some more Britannias a couple of weeks ago.

Thanks Speedy, some more things/people for me to follow up on. I follow Matthew Piepenburg closely, after being really impressed with an interview he did a while back. I have also listened to a few interviews with Pierre. Good to know I'm looking in some of the right places. I try and listen to a range of sources, including bearish ones, in order to avoid group think.

Yes, articles in the mainstream, including the BBC today, are always a good sign. Most of the general macro and investment commentators I follow on LinkedIn have also started talking about Gold recently. I think the 0.5% allocation that general US investors are currently giving to Gold and gold miners in their portfolios is set to change quite substantially (and revert to a much higher long term mean, or above), and when that does we will know about it. As you say, in Asia it's already a larger portion of investors' portfolios, they don't rely on the same debt fuelled stock market bubble and are ahead of the curve.

I should have explained the reasons that a steep yield curve is good for Gold. A steep yield curve means lower yields on short term bonds and T-bills in the near term, which is good for Gold on a relative basis as a non-interest bearing/yielding asset. This leads to some rotation from short term bonds / t-bills to Gold.

Higher yields on long term bonds reflect the higher inflation premium demanded by investors due to high inflation expectations. High inflation in the long term and the destruction of $ purchasing power means that investors turn from long term bonds to Gold as a wealth preservation tool. We win both ways. Negative real interest rates, if they come, will be spectacular for Gold.

GLR, from what I've heard them say, I think they have applied for multiple grants, so the chances of them being successful on one increases a fair bit. Great find on a specific grant that they can apply for. I'm sure they will be applying for it if they have not already been successful by the 13th October deadline. JT said in early August that they had become aware of new / different pots of US government money (I think they found out at the Peter Navarro meeting), and this may be one of those. Great to have multiple shots at the target.

Nice £40k delayed reported buy there.

Continued

and will get them to keep cutting rates. He wants a weak dollar, low interest rates and high inflation (negative real rates) to deal with the debt mountain.

Based on COT reports traders and banks have been defending $3,430. The closing of their shorts if we keep travelling north, should provide a virtuous circle of buying pressure. Almost feel sorry for the American shorters coming back from their long weekend to find gold at nearly $3,500!

Speedy, I am not a talented chartist like yourself, so apologies if I gave that impression. Since my first investment in Greatland in early February I have been watching and reading a lot about the fundamentals and technicals driving the gold price. So when I say we are headed for $4,000, I am basing this prediction on both.

Based on most of the technical chartists I follow, a breakout and hold above $3,430, and then a hold above ATH of $3,500 after four months in consolidation range is extremely bullish, with first target of c.$3,750 and then on to $4k. The August monthly close at c. $3,450 was also important given traders had kept the four previous monthly closes in the $3,300 area.

On the fundamentals side, it is clear that we are in a period of US fiscal dominance, meaning that high and persistent government deficits and debt levels dictate monetary policy, forcing the central bank to prioritise financing the government over its primary mandate of controlling inflation. If Powell cuts in September, with core PCE at 2.9%, then this confirms to the market that they are no longer prioritising inflation, and will likely lose control of inflation. This steepens the yield curve as buyers of US Treasuries demand a higher inflation premium over the long term i.e. widens the margin between 2 year Treasuries and 10 or 30 year Treasuries. This is very bullish for gold. It also leads to individual, institutional and central bankers looking to protect against inflation and rotating more assets out of Treasuries and into gold.

A September rate cut of 25bps seems to be 85% priced into market expectations. Powell's Jackson Hole speech, where he was unexpectedly dovish, was the catalyst for this march north in Gold price from the low $3,300's to $3,480 now, which is evident from the chart.

The Core PCE came in in line with expectations at 2.9% on Friday, so provided no reason for him to change his mind, hence the breakout of Gold above the $3,340 resistance that it had previously failed to beat four times. The last major economic reading before the September FOMC meeting that could cause him to change his mind is the Non-farm payrolls data this Friday. Many analysts are predicting it to continue to show weakness. If it instead shows strength, that would probably be the only thing that can bring Gold back down. On the other hand, if it shows greater weakness than expected, including downward revisions to previous periods (which happened last month and seems to have prompted Powell's dovish tilt at Jackson Hole), then the market is probably going to start pricing in a 50bp cut in September by the Fed. This would likely sky rocket Gold.

Add to this the fact that Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Cook, is getting Stephen Mirren (his own pick for the Fed Board) confirmed by Congress in time for September meeting and that he gets to replace Jay Powell in May, and you see that he will have effective control of the Fed, and will get them to keep c