RE: Aim share holders2 Sep 2025 20:21
Very little chance that Gold drops back materially from here if we get past Friday's US non-farm payrolls without a positive surprise (i.e. jobs numbers comprehensively beating expectations). The key resistance at $3,430 and then $3,500 looks like it has been well broken, so the only other things beyond the job numbers that will cause a material correction are highly unlikely. These would include:
1) World peace / end to Ukraine war - would be lovely, but is unlikely
2) The US Federal Government balancing its books - they tried that with Elon / DOGE, how did it work out?
3) The US Federal Reserve proving that they are independent and will prioritise controlling inflation - highly unlikely with everyone afraid of Trump, Governor Cook being fired, Trump appointing his yes men to the Board and Powell being replaced by May at the latest
4) The BRICS falling out with each other and deciding to move back to trading in US$ and increasing holdings in US treasuries - doesn't look likely based on the Modi / Ji / Putin love-in
5) An end to US tariffs - yeh, nah...
Of course I'm being a little facetious, but you catch the drift. The Gold price is being driven by a lot of macro factors (many of them linked to the US dollar / de-dollarisation / loss of $ purchasing power), and none of them look like they are going to change course any time soon. So, get through Friday unscathed and $3,750-$4,000 is most likely in the near future.