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I was clear that I expect a minimum 5x share price growth.....so whether it tturns out to be a 5-fold gain or a 50-fold gain is both immaterial to the investment decision and a rather pointless guessing game. The outcome will depend on trial results and (unpredictable) competitive tensions.

Not sure of the source of this video, but the general message is clear....

https://www.threads.net/@tinylabcoat/post/C_IdsdfuPxP/?xmt=AQGz-6fb6nyiHGiKAwdfdx_u7wuClBd9QoGhk_sOYJm-mQ

I’m not really interested in playing this, though have always thought the right price will be in the billions.

What I am certain of, however, is that the current share price is derisory - and investing at current levels will soon be seen to be a total steal.

Precisely my point, P123. 👍

Ideally I'd like to see the company announce strong trial results, swiftly followed by an RNS that says the company is assessing multiple bids and deals for all or substantially all of the company.

Tempus fugit from many points of view and cancer sufferers and governments will be demanding rapid progress.

“Let's see how the cohort with the double checkpoint and also also the neoadjuvant cohorts fare. We may be in for fireworks when results for these two cohorts are announced.“

Well, the one that interests me is the one where tumours are being removed and analysed after six weeks of treatment. They must have a good deal of data on that by now, since the first patient was dosed nearly a year ago. I wonder if that has contributed to the recent confidence?

Why has the basis of allocations not been announced?

I have fewer shares AND less cash in my account than expected. Where is it?

The “results” change and could be updated every single day!

Unless they hit a pre-defined end point, they will not make an announcement during August.

It has ALWAYS been the case, even in the 1970s, that “events” have to be promptly reported. But ongoing processes and investigations are a different matter entirely!

Chillpill is completely correct and Matt is completely wrong on timing of announcements. Unless there is an unexpected event (as with Hiscox this week) you minimise announcements in August, just as you minimise announcements on Fridays (as Kwasi Kwarteng should have known!!).

Every single PR in the City and every company board knows this!

It is also for this reason that you have the old market adages about selling in May and not buying until the start of September.

BBC, Guardian and others today trumpeting the start of a new mRNA trial re non small cell lung cancer:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/aug/23/world-first-lung-cancer-vaccine-trials-launched-across-seven-countries

“ It’s simple to deliver, and you can select specific antigens in the cancer cell, and then you target them. This technology is the next big phase of cancer treatment.”

I follow that - but some people, at some times, literally cannot wait.

A year ago I needed to liquidate a bunch of shares to help my son buy a flat. Those I sold are merely up 25% or so…….🙄😬

I don’t think many “mugs” have ever owned Scancell. Therefore, by definition, the sellers aren’t “mugs”. People die, move house, need to raise money for a range of purposes etc - and indeed the purpose of investing is to store money for future use.

So one cannot blame those who sell, especially with no knowledge of circumstances. Even some of the funds, like Calculus, need to raise money to pay their own investors from time to time.

But I would definitely say that the rewards from holding over then next 6 to 12 months are definitely asymmetric in favour of those who continue to hold, because the upside could be 5x the downside. Or more.

Don’t forget Italy.

Companies get approaches all the time, WTP. They only reach the trigger for an RNS when Heads of Terms (as a minimum!) have been agreed and the financing has been established to be in place.

I’d be amazed if Scancell hadn’t been “sounded out” at least half a dozen times in the last year……and probably told that there was no interest in selling anywhere near current prices nor at this point in time.

But 2025 may be a somewhat different story…….

Rigga,

That is a “how long is a piece of string?” question. But in this case we can be certain that there would be detailed discussions with the Board before shareholders were given any clue. And we can almost be certain that any deal would be fully agreed before we saw it.

So my guess is that it would take 3-4 months to complete from that point. Typically there would be about a dozen conditions precedent to be worked through before completion.

Note the late reported 500,000 trade at 16.84, made at 16.32pm……

….oh yes…..and getting the theoretical price “right” at 15.30 is key to getting blocks done that won’t need reporting until after the close….(and same for the close itself).

Its a holiday period and a two-tier market. There are buyers and sellers for blocks at negotiated prices, but the smaller size deals will just bob around and find their own level.

Market makers in touch with size buyers and/or sellers will have an active axe, but those who don’t will have the B team holiday relief traders who are just looking to stay flat.

IMO.

The share price is totally irrelevant to the terms of any offer!

The “standard” approach is only relevant for widely-held shares which have a majority of investors who have no idea of the real commercial value. In this case, Redmile and Vulpes have a very clear idea of value - and, along with the rest of the board, can be relied upon to reject anything too low.

In my view, any bid would need to be an absolute minimum of 70p a share - and that minimum is rising all the time.

Where? How large?