Member Info for emptyend

…..does that include when the shares are held in an ISA wrapper and therefore registered in the name of the nominee for the ISA provider?

What evidence is needed to prove two years?

Nb……the very annoying asterisks put there by LSE should read:

www.

research-

tree.com

…..but without the line breaks 🙄🙄

….appear to have put a research piece out today. does anyone have access?

https://*********************/companies/uk/biotechnology/scancell-holdings-plc/research/panmure-liberum/panmure-liberum-scancell-holdings-scope-ing-the-opportunity/1_1022666

In the last ten trading days, the share price has risen from 9.75 to 14.5. Volumes on the LSE have totalled around 17.5 million shares, though it seems as if volumes will remain high.

But the question arises: how much volume has been traded over the same period in other trading venues? It could be much more?

Good deduction there, Bermuda. I think we can assume that iSCIB1+ is no worse than c.85% response rate and that the wider addressable market coupled with the longer patent life to 2040 would make it a no-brainer decision.

It also begs the interesting question as to how many complete responses have been seen in the 22.

I would say that 31 responders are the target (70% of 43, rounding up) and, if an 85% response rate is maintained, that would need 37 patients assessed to get 31 responders. If is better than 85% then they may hit the target after 34/35/36…… so, basically, an earlier than expected announcement would be strongly positive, but the guidance is for Q4.

Dodgy maths there, chester, but the substance is correct. They may well need only to enrol/treat only a small number more to hit the 70%ORR for a 43 patient trial in Q4. Whether that is at the beginning or end of Q4 depends on both the actual response rate and the path to getting the remaining recruits.

WTP,

The RNSable bit is the trial recruitment update. 32 recruited puts us on the cusp of potential further news as a 70% ORR requires only 31 responses.

Also 22 on iSBIB1+ is a useful confirmation.

…….and then there is also the question of what is happening with the Moditope trial, which could have an even larger share price impact as it is derisked…..

The Trinity Delta valuation in January estimated the company as having a risked (undiluted) value of 32.8p per share. That included a 10% chance of success for iSCIB1/SCIB1. Each 10% increase in that chance of success is worth 5.7p per share……..so, if the chances of success are now more like 30%(say) that would make Trinity’s valuation 44.2p currently.

The RNS itself is not the most important piece of news. What IS the most important piece of news is that one or more people on the panel (or whom were spoken to after the poster) seem likely to have mentioned their opinions on the SCOPE trial to funds with some real money. And they have been acting.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett

…….the impatient and those who trade short-term ranges are in the process of being separated from their stock, I suspect.

Very many here are far from being impatient, and have held for many years, but I suspect more serious patient money is in the process of arriving……

And yet, in another sense, they are far from being patient - because they seem to see a need for urgency in building their position. We may soon see the share price getting to a level that will tempt many.

Quite. The chance of any pharma trying to buy a material stake in the market is precisely zero!

Don’t be in any rush to take a quick profit. The upside here is almost unbounded - and 10x-20x returns are perfectly possible within a couple of years. Perhaps even more?

Unlikely, KonarA, but doubtless a factor in the initial recruitment being very rapid.

“off the charts” is as far as I could get, too…..

Sorry. 😬

By the way, I’ve just noticed the abstract on the cover of the Vulpes report last year. It reads:

“ Scancell is an early-stage bio-technology company that is well positioned with 4 distinct technology platforms, in the high-growth immuno-oncology space. If all 4 platforms were successful, the company could generate around $12bn in peak aggregate revenues by the early to mid-2030s.”

That isn’t a long time to wait, given that there seems plenty of success so far and management sounding increasingly-confident that they are “nearly there”…..

Perhaps it is the buyer that is “the size” and the sellers who are numerous? Only the marketmakers know the truth.

……absolutely nowhere near a “bull run” at present. I’ve seen proper bull runs that have taken share prices tens of times higher…..and that could easily happen here…..but it hasn’t yet started.

Watch what happens when there is game-changing news and no stock available…..😏

We haven’t looked at this for quite some while, but it is worth reviewing the last stab that Trinity Delta had - which dates from January.

The Moditope platform was given a 12.5% chance of being commecially successful, with 2% for Avidimab and 10% for Immunobody incl iSCIB1+.

2-5% for antibodies.

The unrisked value is given as £4.8bn…..so all depends on the chances of success.

By how much might those chances have changed since January?