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Meanwhile, on Modi-2, this conference in Philadelphia is only a couple of weeks away…..

https://www.immuno-oncologysummit.com/cancer-vaccines

There is a synergy in PR terms between the different trials, because successes in one trial will breed confidence in the science thinking behind the others.

I’d be quite surprised if there is no update on anything in the next couple of weeks.

The patent life on iSCIB1+ also extends to 2040……so the success case would make it very valuable if early approval can be expedited. What is the best way to do that, I wonder?

….+…..obviously 🙄

Suppose, for a moment, that the early iSCIB1 patients were all showing complete responses. At what point would an early announcement of such a fact be justified?

I come back to three bits of evidence:

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TodDgfpBjjA ……in May Sath said 10 patients were already recruited for iSCIB1 and it was recruiting 3 to 4 times as fast

2. The written comments on Scancell’s upcoming big decisions, which stated that Scancell were already leaning to developing iSCIB1

3. Lindy’s comments at the end of her recent Proactive interview.

…..all of it is pointing to strong confidence. But based on what?

Sadly we know that. I personally blame systemic risk avoidance in the public markets following the regulatory excesses after the 2008 banking crisis…..and the bureaucratic woke box-ticking from self-appointed risk guardians whose activities chill institutional investor risk-taking.

C.18p I think….

About time Vulpes updated their view?🤔

“ What I'm looking forward to is the day a decent RNS is released and the share price doubles and from there continues to climb.”

Precisely, Ruck. Not very long to wait now ;-)

I doubt it.

It is just the clock ticking for those who don’t have a holding…..because by the time they get back from holidays, they may find news has taken the price materially higher.

Would be happy to get news, though…..

Unlikely…..its a Friday.

Nobody releases important news on a Friday.

But it is worth watching early next week, ahead of the low liquidity in the school holiday season.

I’d like to see some revenue forecasts. And I’d like management to say by how much these RNS statements move the needle.

Unless they do, I don’t think the share price will move much. Remember the share price was briefly over 24p a while ago. We’re down 70% since then but (other than political delays) I don’t think much in the story has changed.

Looks like Bryant’s ideas are watered down or buried in the obfuscating comment that the government will “pursue sustainable growth by encouraging investment in industry, skills and new technologies.”

I guess we’ll see what that means in due course…..

A quick heads up - Chris Bryant just indicated there will be measures to promote “very important scientific innovations”. He’s the minister responsible.

We should know the facts for sure in the next 30 minutes…..but……

The other factor in the share price recently has been the placing at 11p done to certain institutions and a few others in December. There has been no major price-changing news since then.

Crusty,

Calculus has launched sub-funds over the years that make discrete investments in growth companies, including Scancell. When they wind up one of these sub-funds they sell shares to repay holders, as happened a year or two ago with some of their earlier funds. Until and unless they need to close a particular fund tranche, they don’t trade the shares much.

No surprise that supply is tight. The institutions, private equity and directors etc are very sticky holders who will not be sellers anywhere near this level. That is about half the shares outstanding. I’d guess there are quite a few private holders who have 1%-2% stakes and they will also be sticky. So perhaps 10-20% are potentially tradeable - not a lot for institutions…..

Value? Basically the value of the data - and the potential to drill an early well.

All academic unless someone is actually interested in the assets.

….though, that said, I’ve been thinking that for years 🙄

Company sale most likely. It has always been a cheap option for larger companies looking for play analogues in the region.

My principal thought would be a sale of the company. Possible that there could be a farm-in that preserves the upside potential but it has always been the case (even from much higher prices) that acquisition oF GBP represents a cheap option for a larger company.

There are also the Italian blocks, for which some sort of deal might also be possible.

That is my point. The loan is cash collateralised by the shareholder. So if not repaid the collateral is likely to be lost. Why would anyone do that for a short-term loan - unless they were expecting news imminently that would produce cash?