Member Info for Elsol

CG77, good luck with the cash but you will very much kick yourself in the nuts when the phase III readouts and deals feed through...its so nearly here. Sorry to say this but not sure you understand this stock and its volatility and risk reward dynamics. Unless you need your cashback urgently for some other life spending decisions of course then I apologise unreservedly.

I was always the one sounding off about over heating of the ITX share price as it went up since I was trying to bring some balance to our BB but now it's turned the other way and its definitely over sold IMO. So anyone with spare cash is going to roughly double bag on ITX in a short period is my guess. Its the expanding IP position (not just patents but backbone chemistry knowhow and technical relationships with collaborators) and strong green customer interest that will eventually pull this back, not necessarily the short term sales numbers which do not reflect the significant investment in the technology and market development over quite a few years now. All you need is one good customer announcement which will probably come in H2.

Should say major not amazon!!!

I still believe the ITX powerhouse products are detergents and think customers over ordered supply H2 last year to avoid stock out risks. So what you probably see here is a supply chain related short term effect that will correct in H2. I'm a LTH so just wait and will bounce bsck is my guess, especially if amazon client is unblinded..

Hi Alan. I have sent you an email.
Thx

I have about 4m shares I think bit lost in the mist....but I'm certainly in. There is still residual value for a low cost shell with not many overheads to maintain patents and wait for possible iclaprim to commercialise or someone that wants to pay 50 to 60 % of the tax loss npv. Without our current BODS of course...let's go restructure

I would vote to get rid of existing BODS certainly. Rubbish!!

My view is the BODS selected a really bad candidate here....not even any near term cashflows from r&d assets.....rubbish and pants. They did not leverage the tax losses asset card at all and therefore gave away the Trump card for some value for us all. Plain and simple awful BOD group and utterly crap decision to proceed with this RTO offer in the first place!!

Ajp. I would say the new investors are hoping for at least 10% growth per year. Double a typical equity risk premium. Again massive sums are invested in all sorts of stocks so you cannot say risk is mitigated by new money coming in, but it's good IP Group are participating with someone else obviously.

Smartinvestor. The capital raise will never "future proof" the risk of the share price falling below 12p?? Whilst it gives confidence in trajectory, it could quite easily go south of 12p in the future so please don't kid yourself otherwise and give other investors the wrong message. This stock will continue to be volatile and could in principle go down as well as up!

My take on the RNS and its timing;
1. Probably ITX Management and Broker felt the SP was getting a bit frothy of late, to the extent it was not keeping track with economic reality of 2021 performance to date, clearly driven by overly optimistic investor sentiment;
2. A 50mGBP market cap seems more supportable than a 70mGbp one until the revenue line grows some what more;
3. Message around growing channel / client diversification was good to hear again
4. The business has to grow in its own time and holding long will payback.
5. Very unlikely that the Board is in dialogue with M&A suitors or considering a JV. If it was, they would not have derailed the frothy share price trajectory since the ITX share price strength would have given greater leverage in pricing of ITX's equity relative to the counter-party.
6. Likewise equity / debt financing. I don't think it's close by at the moment.

What's the headline?

Very funny Woody, don't know whether you a complete lunt or losser but you are right completely. I agree.

Doc you seem to be on overdrive and / or on speed on this particular thread and I'm pleased to say your comments are absolutely 110% spot on and well written. In mind I think the wall of global economic / reactive innovation capital coupled with strong medical needs for emerging covid type viruses (particularly preventing risk of death and severe disease) will drive mankind to develop and use EVERY TOOL in the scientific and innovation box to manage this new infection and yes that includes SNG. It's a constant battle against mother nature's evolutionary drive of the survival of the fittest via gradual pathogen mutation as we try to increase human population globally with our ingenuity to conquer evolutionary forces. Remember for every action there is a reaction..and that includes R&D innovation progression which is ratcheted up by basic human need to survive and all financial capital will be made available to this end.

Man flu is a genetic male reality using real world evidence....at last we can quote this to our wives for additional looking after services at home when sick. ;-)

I agree with EoB. Let's not get over excited. Normally Enterprise Value will track in certain ratios of revenues and expected profits, so whilst we hope for something more you could easily be fooling ourselves and others creating undue peaks and troughs in the SP that doesn't do long term holders any favours. The revenue multiple currently is large you will agree as we transition through breakeven. Yes, we could have a big event happen but it could be an outright sale and then I would argue you've missed out on your 10 years of hockey stick growth. The business has to manage this good growth too which has many risks and uncertainties of expansion and change, not to mention competitive reaction to replicate our key ingredients and to try to get around our patents so it's not a given that you will be driving your Bentley around in 2025...baaa humbug!!

This is my worst case expectation; Looking at the 10 month period to 17 May there has been a 182% SP growth from the pre news "low" on 17 July 20 so my guess is by 1 September the stars will align to 175p just prior to Phase III readout. I think we are now at the bottom of the oversold zone and should trace gradually upwards from here towards the original II investor case pricing hypothesis. ??. Thereafter , data is king on how far we go from there upwards. The coiled spring of sp highs and lows is getting more compressed as we go forwards but with a positive gradient to the pivotal readout date.

If bumbling Boris promised to stop the tide coming up Brighton beach I'm sure most of the UK would believe this fella. In actual fact it's a real shame he is an Arts type graduate ?? and semi narcissistic resulting in him making these late flip flop decisions and taking massive risks in our name. I don't trust his need to maintain HIS Ego to the detriment of other poor souls that have to be hospitalised or die because of it...

Hi Tommy,
In my mind the current SP value of SNG is fully covered and supported by the use of SNG001 in a small market niche of the people in the world that have a genetic defect in normal immune system INF production and those with anti self auto-antibodies to INF. Thus, I believe there is Nil downside risk at the current share price if you hold for 6 months or so. Its literally a free carry of an upside option that could pay off handsomely well above that simple base case assumption. Hope that makes you sleep a bit easier with the volatility. Good luck!

Oakleaf yes that's fine re: reddit