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I've recently triangulated a high level indicative value mid-point for SNG from multiple valuation approaches and benchmarks like the Merck SP uplift on news announcement and things like share of respiratory market days of therapy etc. The values generally cluster around a mid value of between £2.0bn to 3.0bnGBP market cap. using what I believe were balanced and prudent assumptions. Probability of around 90%+ of major value uplift with reasonable success of phase 3 readout as we all or mostly anticipate. There were some outliers, but generally my guide is there for now.

That's my prediction where we are right now given the critical mass of information we know to date on SNG001 as a very broad anti infective therapeutic targeting a massive respiratory global market (with covid as the near term catalyst) :-) good luck all.

Take care of yourself woody. Hope to hear from you again soon.

And the smallest the most vocal..

Just to add some more meat on the bones to provide insight to my calcs. I don't think this represents a classical normal option distribution . It appears flatter and covers a huge range of value outcomes each impacted by an array of different factors and hence why the market cap has historically been quite risk averse and also why no early acquisitions or deals to date and also why so much pessimism/optimism related volatility as shown by the wonderful graph ?? of SP history. The lower case positive outcomes are impacted by possible strong cheaper pill and other advanced vaccines style competition coming on stream, the global government pricing debate/control to put pressure on the price for SNG's treatment impacting profitability and if the BOD approve a less optimal exit transaction and also our delivery device issues. The upper end is very broad and encompasses a better management of shareholder value by RM and his team, especially dealing with the line extensions into the other respiratory viral indications and asthma and COPD. The tail of the option is very long and will provide some very low probability options of a very large diamond like returns not just a pot of gold. Good luck all. My expectation is the SP will trend north as a wider non technical audience works out that this has a 1010% better risk reward characteristics to the national lottery. Smart professional investor money is over weight now with Polygon with all the big Pharma/Bio circling with great interest. I think Polygon have a similar option model running on this stock and that's why they have put so much cash on the line.

This is a fantastic real option on display with illustrated probabilities something like this:
15% very worst case = nil value ( I think its less than 10% personally)
Then the upside :
5% chance money back
10% 250p
10% 400p
10% 600p
10% 800p
10% 1200p
10% 1500p
10% 2500p
5% 5000p
5% 7500p
So looks pretty good doesn't she!

Hi Axe, please keep me on the list. Shares safe with me, hold and be bold until they get to be sold at a premium of X5 to x10. Good luck all .

I think the cross corroboration of the US ACTIV independent trial II to III transition has de-risked the original Synairgen clinical data from its own phase II trial which in my mind also was statistically significant, but now I guess it is fairly improbable that that original clinical data was a "fluke" occurrence. Caveat that we have not seen the US data yet but PII to PIII there must have been a statistical signal of efficacy and low safety profile.

Comment to Mike, the current market value implied by the share price today equates to poor or even "dog " like results being achieved in the future. The SP today is overly risk adjusted and suggests a relative failure or large pessimism in the mid point cashflows to be generated from the SNG entity well below the £1.5bn I referenced as a fairly conservative example. That's why there is at least a 90% chance of over performance against current perceived value even if your 85% is correct for launch . For example the 1.5bn market cap I quoted was my low end of the likely range and there is large upside beyond due to all the extension possibilities. If you want to be more conservative that's fine but I still believe the economic value as implied by the facts around the probability of launch success and in the context of all the facts today regarding efficacy and safety mean there is a large mismatch between the SP now and the intrinsic value implied by all the facts.

thanks david i totally agree.

That's already in my probability adjustment on this calculation..its certainly not below 90% success rate for this outcome.Im assuming 95% plus in my base case.

Running the maths on this is so interesting: A baseline analysis:
1/ at least 90-95% of future outcomes are positive generating at least £1.5bn+ market cap for investors.
2/ max 5%-10% of outcomes are negative or low value of nil to £100m.
So you do the maths yourselves....the price should be much much higher right now. Its the not knowing the upside uncertainty that's the key uncertainty, but dont forget uncertainty is your friend when investing wisely and alot of the probability game here seems already painted for us and defined in the facts of this company and market environment.

owl totally agree with your last point

I would say that they now know that they are on the very cusp of turning dedicated research and development into a massive commercial reality. If there was even a slight prospect of getting twitter abuse in the event of clinical failure or more delays, they would not have done this right now they would have waited until January 2022.

Exactly right scoresagain... its a very cheap entry price for investors at 6p reflecting a low end of the range market cap which fails to fully reflect as yet the global green / ECO market disruption opportunity and growth potential. I think many investors do not fully understand the nature of R&D businesses and the fact that the "current off-Balance Sheet (BS)" Intangible Assets IAs (e.g. patents, tradesecrets, manufacturing knowhow, polymer chemistry formulations, highly embedded 'blue chip' type customer relationships and of course technology trademarks). These would only appear typically on a BS in the event of a future acquisition of ITX, which IMV would likely be well in excess of the existing £30m market cap since it has cost c.£60m+ I believe to create them and get them to where the company is today.

What's been overlooked here is the TIMING of the award. If SYN waits a few months and the sp rockets on phase 3 readout then as we very strongly suspect, the options are almost useless to the owner because the day 1 market fair value as measured for immediate income tax charge purposes on the incumbents would be excessive . It makes real sense given the facts on value ratcheting of the SP upward to give some of these guys a very small piece of our forthcominhg massive corporate valuation expected in early 2022.

This US independent trial approval and pivotal progression may be the straw that broke the camels back of the resistance against SNG. After all the current price is pathetic right now for a possible multi billion seller therapeutic against all covid variants. Not sure the downside risk adjustment historically to its share price makes sense any longer and particularly our friendly US investors may conclude this relatively quickly.

Fantastic the UK news teams are now on board to kick the Government into action and drive grass roots support from the public.

i agree. another £10k in for me- couldn't resist.

X violet if you want to ponder about possible polygon strategy maybe connect with some chatter on ADVN about GSK new pharma strategy and how SNG could feed their needs: Strategic focus to prevent and treat disease, with R&D leveraging science of the immune system, human genetics and advanced technologies
Strengthened balance sheet post separation supports investment in growth. Apparently GSK are hiring respiratory reps in all US states at the moment although that's not my research so needs validating..