Member Info for Elsol

Please can someone provide a quick overview on where the concensus thinking is right now of this BB . The share price implies some additional confidence in progress of trials and the Kansas Dr comment obviously corroborates, but how much of this chatter and observational evidence from web pages gives 95% confidence in knowing the actual truth. Short comments please from clinical trials savvy folks put there is very welcome to get all or most of us on the same page. Why wouldn't Synairgen have to RNS some news if it was released into the public domain even by a market commentator say the Kansas Dr investigator very close to the trial?

Utter vollocks that any share price change needs an RNS!!

The consumer impact of climate warnings and the opportunities for investors. Short Extract below but message is clear to me for businesses like ITX which is a STRONG BUY in the Green ECO sector. Huge market pressures continue to build to convert existing carbon based product consituents to sustainable ones.

"A ‘Code Red’ for humanity. That’s how the UN phrased its stark warning on climate change and a quick glance at news websites highlight heatwave induced wildfires in California, Greece, and Italy; events that used to happen once."..etc etc

The biological role of interferon biomolecules have evolved within various species over millions of years to combat viral replication of pathogens. All SNG001 has done is to take this natural human protein and retask it into a new breathable formulation to assist in down regulation of pathogen RNA replication or supporting immune disorders of INF synthesis. So it's a no brainer really that the risk and rewards of this innovation are going to play in a very wide therapeutic context over quite a few years to come. So is 300m GBP market cap enough to describe such a patent protected (hopefully without challenge) innovation is the key question. Given the risk of lower therapeutic effect, side effects or other competing therapies it's definitely hugely compelling as a value risk reward investment. Its up to you if you find a better asset to invest in. If you do please let me and this BB know and we will consider it's merits .. :-)

Welcome Norfolkian, expect some high volatility with ITX driven by news flows and high expectations of many then derampers doing their best to buy at a bargain price but certainly the long run trend is very much upwards from here. At 25 to 30m mkt cap ITX is still a small fry but acres of space to grow and very minimal downsides given current modest price tag.

To be honest, I just visited the ADVFN BB yesterday. The key take away for me is that there are quite a few very vocal posters that don't really understand R&D innovation driven businesses and risk adjusted future cashflows supporting market values for non profitable high growth businesses like ITX. So wait until the coin drops...just hold its going to bounce up at some point again soon because the business characteristics and fundamentals are so strong, notwithstanding the ECO green force drivers for many years to come...we are not going back to fossil fuels any tme. Period

Irrespective of any further nervous short term sellers I'm still expecting 12p again by year end so I'm waiting for the positive news flows that's a given in my opinion during H2 Sept onwards. Nevertheless, I think its currently a great entry price for people given the upsides in this stock to mean revert back to the recent professional investor price point at 12p which could happen at any time. I'm fully invested here otherwise would be adding more.

Dumbpunter insider trading is about making profit from inside information..if you sell at a low price point knowing the intrinsic price suggests a higher price then thats negative insider trading IMO or stupidity. or in fact it could be charitable donation or true shareholder fiduciary concern....trot on and get some education on the matter since you are spouting absolute rubbish.

I'm still expecting 12p+ by year end. We don't live on the Blue planet anymore its turned Green! It's an overwhelming market force in my opinion. Just wait.

Bob 128. Hi. The directors had to exercise the share options otherwise they expire in September. No brainer. They have an immediate income tax charge so had to sell a chunk to pay income tax. No brainer. Timing. They had to do this now because they would have lost the shares. There is no subliminal messaging within this transaction to suggest news is forthcoming or not. They only sold the proportion to raise capital to pay the immediate taxes as I would have done. Hence they now have free carry.

I'm not a tax specialist but think this is to do with the personal tax that crystallises during acceptance of the shares in the option grant. So tax may be due quite quickly after the options are taken and possibly all the profit on the sold shares today goes to pay the tax exposure created. In effect the 3 directors now have a free carry of the remaining shares with no further income tax to pay. Thus, they had to use the option grant before they expired then had to pay their tax bills for the shares received, leaving a share tranche able to be sold in future at higher prices....

So if phase III replicates the earlier phase II data then 2k to 3kGBP a treatment of SNG001 is a no brainer pharmaco-economic decision if targeted to patients with high risk of hospitalisation. Simple maths for a specialist care medical intervention me thinks ??

Phillip Morris International is about to acquire Vectura PLC for £1bn to set up the core of its new inhalation pharma/biotechnology division. If ITX phase III goes well as we all believe they must be a very hot contender to buy SNG to bulk out and extend their new venture. Matches perfectly with PMI ambition to replace a significant chunk of their global cigarette empire which they see as decaying over time. What better way than a non specific anti viral for acute and chronic lung disorders....re marketing their franchise as western world s significant killers....to world's rescuers. Enjoy it chaps its not far to go now.

I think we picked up a significant number of speculative investors dragged along with the euphoric rise above 7p during March. Much of those investors, being short term opportunists I believe got burned and have hopped off at a loss. Therefore, I think now again the majority of investors are once again the old faithful long term investors , so as others have said already, the new green conversion share buyers coming in should fuel the SP recovery aligned to long term business growth and diversification upsides in new markets. I think the CEO probably did not anticipate the SP movement with the 5 and 6 month announcements. I'm sure he will be looking for the earliest opportunity to reinforce again the upside here for ITX. So I'm expecting that anytime from now onwards...

For me, volatility is my friend as a long term investor. I'm confident of making a good return with ITX but you all need to decide the long run SP trend its that simple. If you believe it's going up you buy.....and vice versa.

Massive endorsement of the value we will generate with this company...

It's the nearest professional investor yardstick on value on the share eg 12p. Most of us here probably don't have the management expectations insights and possible view on the customer pipeline as do IP Group. That's my point!

The historic investment in terms of the prior cash invested in the business and R&D for one thing!

Don't forget that a professional intellectual property specialist investor, the IP Group, invested very recently again at about 12p.    They will have had additional forecast cashflow and commercial insights into ITX than an average minority private investor..so that's the nearest solid benchmark on value of a minority shareholding in my opinion.  IP Group are no mugs so they will be expecting a decent risk weighted 20% low end VC return per year at least over the next 2 to 3 years.   Also bear in mind the historic cost of ITX investments in R&D and market development /access must be more than GBP60m right now which probably aligns at least to the 12p investment price.   Hence 12p+ by end of the year looks where we are headed in the short term is my expectation, albeit some investors clearly don't like the oscillations in SP they get freaked out but you don't crystallise until you sell....remember it's never a good time to sell your house at the bottom of the market but here the SP upsides come much more frequently!  

If there is a buyout looming then it will have to be well-above 12p of the recent fund raise. I'm guessing at least 16p aligned to somewhere around historic R&D and market development expenditure.....