Member Info for Elsol

Great results. big growth and major client diversification coming on fast. a few mentions of waited big brands switches as I mentioned through the year - its coming in 2021 since the big brands wont like the tiddler first movers nibbling market share off their franchises and stealing first mover ECO credentials market space :-)

Yes the answer is in fact B for BOOM! on approval of SYN0000000001

Multiple choice question in the period Jan to Mar 2021 global cases of covid infection have risen by;
A. -15%
B. +110%
C. +34%
Answers please on a postcard to Synairgen Soton

Good Question Douger. Im really looking forward to the webinar that's for sure. FOMO could kick in this PM!

Its because the whole SNG team are HIGHLY FOCUSED on maximising shareholder value for you all and NOT wasting scarce resource to pander to the whims of needy short term investors .. .. sorry to be so blunt. The red buses will be along soon together but we don't need to know how many people are on board at every stop along the way in the weeks before they arrive!!!. Trust and Wait.

Welcome Cidu. I don't think you are too late to the party by any means my friend. I'll update my own value analysis after the full detailed 2020 financials and Q1 outlook is delivered by Mr Shaw and possibly update you all but in any case I think 6p equates roughly to the fair value/NPV of historic tax loss shield anyway to a profitable acquirer so that means the prospect of losing money here at 6p is akin to the probability of predicting correctly that a supertanker would wedge itself sideways in the suez canal!! Conservatively I'm at least expecting 12p by year end easy.
PS. Enteleon. Good to hear you have a good slice if the pie. I have a similar number of shares so great minds think alike.

This is my current working assumption for 2022 revenue and an indicative enterprise valuation for SYN. 

Firstly, I don't believe SNG001s optimal market is to be used as a broad based anti-viral prophylactic for all potential patients.  

Due to SNG001s relatively high price point there will be a risk based scale adopted for those most seriously at risk of severe viral respiratory disease (SVRD) whether Covid or a myriad of other viral pathogens.  On that basis, SYN could easily justify their early estimate of £2k per patient to prevent progression to severe or life threatening viral disease in general otherwise this may require other current costly medical interventions (and especially hospitalisation).  The global market is still quite large; mostly over 60s age group with possible co-morbidities (eg many) or those with genetic immune response deficiencies as already highlighted on various threads here over many weeks.  

MARKET SIZE
On market size, my guess would be to take 25% x world population x say, 20% over 60 + genetically at risk population x  prevalence of severe or moderately severe viral disease on any given year, guess, say 3.0%  x  70% diagnosed percentage then THERAPY market share of SNG001 say, only 10% x 2k GBP price per therapy =  £1.7bn revenue per year. 

ENTERPRISE VALUATION
I would place a stand alone conservative revenue multiple of 2.0x on this 2022 revenue that equates to an enterprise value (EV) of, say £3.4bn .  In the event of a big pharma out licensing deal or bid I suspect the pharma(s) would be able to extend the access of the technology somewhat (market access synergy).  I think this is the end game for SYN and therefore would suggest the value of SYN today (assuming launch) of around £2.0bn to £3.0bn GBP after some value sharing/erosion with big pharma partners.   This is my mid point analysis although a finger in the air I note that clearly there are quite a few assumptions that may cross compensate for inaccuracy when doing rule of thumb summary estimates.  Hence I'm pretty with the above as my value based decision for investing. I suspect launch probability is near to 95% before some clever person mentions its absence above.

I don't think it's a leak or bid. ITX is still just very cheap for what you are getting. I'm waiting to see the 2020 full financial data and management's Q1 2021 comments but suspect even at 6p a share the market cap has only just reached the fair value or net present value (NPV) of the historical tax loss shield to any profitable acquirer..

Roche HQ is located in SWITZERLAND not Austria isn't it. Few holes in this rumour? But I like the fact that Friday meetings are usually reserved for the final deal agreement, long lunch and goodbye hand shakes.

To be fair I think 12p by Jan 2022 is a reasonable expectation stand alone. Its only 9 months away. Higher revenue base and continued client diversification and derisking of cashflows, breakeven prospect, 1 large pivotal new customer acquisition that's all it takes. The share price must also include some prospect of a takeover offer at a healthy premium near term, notwithstanding a valuable tax loss shield opportunity for any profitable acquirer.

Have you heard of the saying "a trend is your friend" bit simplistic but in common use for example in market share analysis. The SP moves under forces created by buyers and seller ebbs and flows usually. So they can partly be useful but as ever historical trends and preferences can and will change.

If I understood correctly does that mean you would sell regardless once you had x2 or x3 return? If you invested in Amazon in or around yr2000 you would be kicking yourself for that return?

Back in the good old 1990s I went for an interview for a chemicals / biomedical sector fund management role in the City. I always recall the main secret of success for an A rated investment analyst that was communicated to me by a senior investment manager interviewer that day, he said ; "Steve, there are very few secrets to being a successful fund manager, but identifying innovation and growth companies early on in their development and staying with them is a key factor to success". Ring any bells??

I think its no: 2 Thorndon. 95% chance and the residual 5% is no: 1.

By the way I think if your under 70 and vaccinated I think there is very very low probability of death via covid disease. There is no such thing as dying of nothing..

Dont mean to be oldist but....possibly its old age effect since people frequently die in the winter with lower uv exposure, less vitamin quality and feeling psychologically down due to seasonal effective disorder (Sad)? But we know it only takes a small infection to push people over the edge when you're old.

I also agree with Dougersboy's comments. Let the company focus primarily on outperforming then tell us the shareholders in their own time when they can fit it in around the important day job. Unless a major RNS is needed of course.

Most of last year the company appeared to be pushing quite hard with shareholder related comms. stuff. Why? because they had plenty of free time after running the business on the early growth phase . Now it's different. The demand pull on this tiny company is very large as a proportion of their available headcount and resources . So for one I'm really pleased we don't get regular "superficial chats" from the management team anymore. It shows the business is in the storming growth groove and doing really well. .they don't need to pretend anymore that they are doing ok. ;-) . That's my view, jump off if you want to with other more negative assumptions on what's actually going on behind the scenes. Its your choice .

Thank you for your joint comments both of you. There are very few trades at the moment so its easy for the MMs to manipulate and massage the price both up and down in the very short term to create the illusion of volatility but I'm certainly not selling a bean here until its well above £75m market cap and then I'm only going to skim off/top slice minor pieces as it continues upwards. Happy investing in ITX. CHEERS. Steve

MMs trying to scare some folks into selling....? Think most investors are long terrmers so must be hard for them. No doubt in my mind where this is going with next news coming at year end announcement and Web cast.