Member Info for Elsol

In addition. I'm heavily invested into Synairgen aswell as ITX. SYN0001 is Synairgen's new antiviral inhaled interferon product which has been used for years as injectable for MS treatment. In final phase 3 trials now across global geographies. Should minimum of x2 in 3 months with preliminary data readout with 90%+ probability of launch then sky's the limit within covid therapy space to complement vaccines then onto other respiratory viruses and respiratory COPD etc. Product reduces disease progression to severe covid with reduced hospitalisations. Slightly higher risk than ITX as its less diverse and many unknowns for pricing and market uptake.

I'm sorry Tiger but its a complete no brainer that this asset is going to at least double bag in under 3 months. So its not a p*ssing competition that anyone can claim any special sixth sense for where the price is heading from the -3 floor of the Empire State building I think we are guaranteed if you buy at 175p you will at least be able to take 2 bags out into the ground floor level and go party in NYC. For the proper long term investors who wait a bit longer, what you will get is well north of 2x from here - period. Wow I'm turning into Mystic Megs Cat again...

Basically the iclaprim asset is a bit like owning a financial option. RTO newco could benefit from a great piece of value in the future if it gets picked up and developed by a third party then we (the Royal we as in RTO NEWCO) get the lions share of upfront and development milestones and a mid digit royalty on sales in all liklihood. I still think its 30 to 40% probable over next few years. So I'm hoping that the combination negotiation recognises what MTFB is bringing to the party other than avoided costs for a listing and the tax loss related asset on the BS.

I expect the sale of motif inc. May have been contractually linked to the RTO transaction going ahead so expect news very soon to formalise the RTO via shareholder vote.

The only positive here is that this transaction increases the liklihood of THE RTO...clearly the RTO candidate had no strategic ambition in iclaprim and was not prepared to invest further peanuts to continue the marketing of the asset to potential third parties, so the only option was to offload it and pay someone 10% of any revenue upside and 250kUSD milestone if successful. All the new owner has to do is to hold tight a few years and make an occasional informed telephone call. Seems like he got a good deal here. Free option upside with minimal investment ( 1USD + minimal costs for keeping patents going and a bit of time for telephone calls! BUT. It means some upside may comeback to Newco however the benefit (if any ) will be diluted to the RTO party probably materially rather than legacy MTFB. It remains to be seen how much hope value was allocated to this iclaprim upside by the RTO party in respect to our relative value...im not convinced its much im afraid. Let's hope the RTO once launched attracts a good investor ground swell to compensate us poor shareholders and hope for good value added in coming years

I think the value observed in the share price at the moment is exceedingly low.. it kind of suggests that there will be very minimal launch probability, low uptake of SNG001 for C19 and variants and that the SNG001 price point will be way below what has been talked about on these threads. Too many negative assumptions in aggregate to equate to a realistic SP given the current facts as we know them. When the trials readout in headline (success @90%+POS ) then its firework time from this very low value base.

Tatty. Just for interest did you sell any shares recently at below their intrinsic economic value or are you a long term holder (e.g. with a scientific valuation rationale) ?

AZ says it could take 8-9 months to update its #covid19 vaccine to new variants, which it's already working on for P1 (Brazil) and B.1.351 (South Africa): "it is likely the process from start to finished product would take 8 to 9 months to complete."
HTTPS://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1363994011380367362?s=20

major global vaccine manufacturers have begun researching and planning to combat the new virus strains.

HTTPS://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-02-18/covid-19-vaccines-csl-mrna-adenovirus-astrazeneca-pfizer-tga/13160404

But as the coronavirus inevitably changes its genetic make-up and starts to evade the protection bestowed by vaccines, new versions of vaccines will need to be made too.

See below paste from OXB thread. The virus mutates slightly quicker than 8 months right, plus delay say 1 to 2 months to identify, characterise variants if mutations occur in non Genomics savvy countries... SO who's going to fill that potential market niche then? YES its yours truly SNG001?

"Long term investors and greedy MMS soak up excess shares from the fists of nervous SNG short term holders and AIM gambling types"...that's the headline on tomorrow's UK mainstream press...never sell before pivotal news coming in bound just buy more if you've done your research!

The single most important factor for me is the small current market cap of SNG in the context of the broader global antiviral market including Covid and secondary mutation variants. Its peanuts. So if P3 and Home trials are good as we and the company expect then the SP will be multiple times todays price its that simple.

I agree, think they are v. busy and prioritising their time on significant business matters at the moment. I have had no response yet on an interesting shareholder related question within a recent email to senior management. Last year they were responsive within around a few days to mutually beneficial dialogue with long term minority shareholders.

I'm sorry to disagree but its at least 90% + probable. SNG001 IS NOT AN AVERAGE RESPIRATORY ASSET SO WHY USE AN AVERAGE INDUSTRY PROBABILITY...please all move your thinking to a more intelligent level please ??

Look at all my prior messages as I've posted a few times already. We are at very low side of industry risk threshold. I'm assuming its 95% at the moment.

Couldn't agree more Citytrader.
Acquirer short term benefit, 1. help save the residual world population from acute disease that do not have immediate access to best current variant vaccines from, say, 01 may 2021 indicative value £1.0-1.5bn. (95% probable). 2. Short to medium term- protection against new variants (potentially total global market) indicative value £1.5-2.0bn (90% probable), long term; 3. Other respiratory viral protection strategies together with concomitant lung diseases prevention £3bn ( 85% probable) Total = £5.0 bn -£6.0bn. Less licensing economic value sharing of between 35% to 50% value leakage to big pharma partners. Net value capture by SYN shareholders = £2.5-£4.0bn. So SP as at Dec 2021 equates to around £12 to £20/share.

Ditto Flowkey, I'm in the same boat; I may top slice a bit above say around 10p but depends on my cash needs at the time etc so roll on company growth and development....good luck to all long termers here! I think our intrinsic enterprise value (EV) range for ITX is between, say, £20m-£40m currently based on adopting high growth revenue multiples (5.0x-8.0x) for full year FY 2021 out-turn (prospective - anticipated number estimates). Multiple EV/Revenue range supported as a very early market innovator with extremely high near term growth rate, strong customer diversification, good IP protection and strong ECO market demand pull (market disruption) observations. Note: Indicative EV could double (with a 100% bid premium due to scarcity value, IP position and synergy for market access) should a larger acquirer want to take out ITX.

Very good observation flowkey41. I think wololol will eventually see the error of his ways....the scientific chemistry analysis market that Deep Matter focuses on is highly competitive and life cycles of new innovations can easily be leapfrogged or out invested by the big incumbent players. In addition the world of life science R&D is trending from small molecule intervention to macromolecular interventions which i believe is not great for DeepMatter in that segment. The long term growth of ITX will definitely trump that stock IMO. They are both approx £20m mkt cap at the moment but I'm confident we will grow more over 11 months....that's why I'm a long term holder here.

It goes without saying if you have customers that are very actively selling features of your product like this then 2021 could be very interesting.....

Aiiacare, cosmetics firm based Scandinavia appear to be making a big selling feature of ITXs sodium polyitaconate ingredient.  Have a read below about their ingredient focus of the week;

https://www.aiiacare.com/pages/sodium-polyitaconate?lang=en

This week's focus is on the ingredient sodium polyitaconate, which is found in our Day Care Serum, Anti Wrinkle Care Serum and Body Care Serum.

What is it?
Sodium polyitaconate is a polyitaconic acid which is partially neutralised with sodium salt. It has a raw white color, is fragrant free and easily soluble in water. In addition, it is biodegradable and 100% biobasated.

One manufactures sodium polyitaconate, which the ingredient is also known by name of, by creating itakonic acid through the fermentation of carbohydrates such as corn.

What does it do?
This ingredient helps with the stabilisation of the product, by stabilising the surfactants. This allows for gentler formulations with caring properties.

Ingredients like this are essential because they give the active, caring ingredients the right conditions to be effective, while the formulation remains mild and gentle to the skin.

Sodium polyitaconate is used in many different care products, including in shampoos and conditioners, body wash, hand soap and creams, and is very mild to eyes and skin. Therefore, it does not result in blistrable eyes or irritated skin. The ingredient is even so mild that it is accepted for use in the food industry.

How safe is it?
This ingredient is neither allergenic nor endocrine disrupting, nor is it suspected to be. The allergy of the ingredient allows both children and adults to use products with sodium polyitaconate without being nervous about getting Allergic reactions or a heightened likelihood of developing contact allergies.

The composition of ingredients 
To conclude, however, it is important to remember that the composition of ingredients in care products is as important as the ingredients are separately. It is therefore necessary to look at the whole composition of the product and not just the individual ingredients each To determine how well the product is and how safe and allergy-friendly it is.

In addition, we as human beings are different, and our skin reacts differently to ingredients. Although an ingredient is generally not considered allergenic, you can still develop allergies to it. Therefore, be aware of your skin's own reactions.

If the candidate is OBT then better than my prior guess of Spirea. Greater value here with good partnerships already in place. Good luck all.