Member Info for Elsol

Marik why do you expect the AZ Oxford vaccine not to proceed to approval and launch. Its an odd assumption. I think its 95%+ probability by January.....Note- All those injected with the actual vaccine in the phase III trial in the UK and Brazil did NOT develop any serious Covid symptoms and / or death unlike the placebo group. That seems pretty effective a vaccine to me or am I missing something?? If you are wrong with your assumption as I suspect that means there will be many more cheap vax shots available by year end 2021 in the world. And don't forget the vax will be given first to the aged and high risk people so the residual population will be less at risk of serious infection..

If we reach 3 squid ill be putting on my fish nets and wearing high eels!!

Its over for people that wanted to make a massive profit in a very very short time...now they are selling at a loss. But you need to wait until mid 2021 for all the intrinsic options to play out with this technology ??.

I'm only guessing why there was a much lower response rate for the full shot v's the half short for the initial injection. Seems very odd in my mind. It is either: (1) some immune biological reason/early immune priming OR (2) whether there was some actual bias in the way the vaccine was allocated v's placebo - e.g. if the full dose was randomised with placebo and given to people at "most immediate risk" say in hospitals and the half dose was randomised against placebo in the "least immediate risk" segment e.g. members of the public shielding themselves. This could show a very unusual response when you look at the trial since the high risk subset would have a higher probability of actual infection BEFORE their injections are able to provide proper immunity. I also think Brazil is a place where there could have been this sort of focus segmentation but still with a placebo in each sub segment - what do others think? We will see the full results but dont forget that nobody given the vaccine had severe disease and the product can be shipped world wide unlike the RNA based products and its a tried and tested vaccine platform at low cost.

Maybe crossed wires? SNG001 has shown in a small but statistically significant trial in phase II to very much reduce the severity and progress of the viral disease and of course the probability of death in the most susceptible patients. But it costs alot per course relative to vaccines which are preventative treatments. So I'm saying that SNG001 will be reserved for the non vaccinated sub segment which over time will shrink . When I say high end I meant high price thats all. Presumably it would be still a higher price for home use too but if you could vaccinate before infection then this has got to be the best option since it may only cost a few quid relative to a few thousand quid.

This product is in a big global market niche remember. Vaccines will take most therapeutic space for covid its clear at a modest price point eg. AZ vaccine...but SNG001 is positioned in the high price life saver segment. If you think about it it doesn't take much at all to generate £1bn global revenue at a price tag if say very conservatively 1500GBP per treatment. So work it out, SP is definitely well undervalued..Will rise for sure ??

Some of the value based estimates on here look excessive and possibly reflect people wishing for these outcomes. If you bear in mind;
1. Hail of much cheaper vaccines that will largely put covid to bed during 2021.
2. SNG0001 Cost of goods likely much higher due to buying in INF and need for a medical device too. Say 20% to 25% PBIT margin . Only a prudent guess / mark in the sand but would not assume more at this point .
3. Possible price pressure re: very competitive vaccines and its not easy to become a monopolistic excess pricing monster in the context of a humanitarian crisis.
4. Lots of complex variables yet to be pinned down hence large volatility in the SP you have seen. Nobody really knows exactly the. SP trend over time and not easy to predict all the emerging market and patient access challenges.
5. If SNG do an out- licensing deal they will probably leach away 50% of the economic profit to big pharma.

But on the plus side possible emergency authorisation pre 2021 and probability of launch is better assuming at least 85% and could be as high as 95%. I'm expecting c90% people will eventually get vaccinated leaving 10% naked of antibody protection hence available for SNG001 treatment if misfortunate to catch it.

Longer term. Great partnership prospects for holistic antiviral treatment and broader COPD etc.

Value guide;
Given the high uncertainty I think the recent professional fund raise $$$ investors are seeking to at least double their money in the medium term to end of 2022. They have good inside information to the extent it was made available. That's my lower case outcome given the facts to date.
Upside; YES definitely thats why I've invested.

Hi blue. I think we are all awaiting trading updates and news on new contracts to provide more endorsement of the technology...we all know its looking good though for 2022. This is my second heaviest investment in my portfolio of about 10 stocks but you should all make up your own minds where this minnow is headed and the market opportunities.

My buy went through as a sell...these MMs really need to get their act in order.

Ive topped up today..vaccine news coming very soon and SP will push up 10% at least.

Just picked up another 1/4 mil shares @2p. Couldn't resist it...there is alot going on behind the scenes IMO that will feed year-end 2020 results and thro. 2021 and not all new client adds will ever get RNS'ed. The Biden win related US initiatives and increased "green voice" will drive this stock quite hard for the next year too. All we need is an 'A' and we will have growth drivers from A, B & C (Biden and Covid being the latter two). :-)

My based case assumption is that this will get emergency approval before year end for CV19 prior to final phase III readout. Stay invested is my advice through mid 2021 to see what upside options come through. Now I'm sounding like mystic meg. Sorry!

Doc you are making BIG assumptions AGAIN about me. I was a European valuations specialist covering pharma and biotech for big 4 accounting firms for 20 years so I am right to use the word professional. I have a MBA and MA BIOCHEM from Oxford University so go and shove off you pathetic moaner! I've valued and evaluated many hundreds of life science companies and IP/innovation assets in my time....enough said good nite xx.

Hi everyone. The probability of success is higher in my professional opinion. The figures thrown out here eg70% probability of success POS is an AVERAGE and that's all it is.
But SNG001 is much better due to;
1. This is a natural protein in normal cells so less chance of side effects and we know it works via millions of years of mans evolution
2. Its not going through the blood stream and direct to lung tissue at site of infection
3. Its mode of action is well understood in the immune response of humans
4. I understand there are loads of studies over the years playing with these INF molecules showing good safety profile of non invasive drug delivery via inhalation.
5. The signal response on the phase II was MASSIVE compared to other treatments currently available.
6. The nebulizer technology appears fairly basic in the big picture sense and the solution INF is dissolved in seems basic.

So I estimate POS at between 85% to 95% not 70%.
Why do you think the CEO is so relaxed and smiling all the time. Doesn't seem to have any worries at all, especially since this therapy is so pivotal an anchor to defeating the virus. If it was only 70% POS the CEO would be much more cautious than presently is the case.

Actually Doc. I'm heavily invested in ODX OXB SNG and AZN and ITX. I get your point but I'm just making the point that SNG is way under valued at this point. No-one is in control of this bl**dy virus but there will be a way forwards. SNG WILL SAVE ALOT OF LIVES. perhaps more so than any other human therapeutic or preventative innovation. I will take care with my !!!! in future though thank you for pointing it out but don't make assumptions.

This is on the. OXB thread: Implication is that SNG001 market is possibly more extended in duration than people may think...

Said this might happen, mink are mustelids as are ferrets. Ferrets have been known to contract covid for some time. Badgers, Otters, Stoats, Weasels, Pine Marten and Polecat are all mustelids.

From the SHA thread.

"This could be very serious if the virus is mutating into animals. I am surprised not on main news.

Denmark, the world's biggest producer of mink fur, said Wednesday it would cull all of the country's minks after a mutated version of the new coronavirus was detected at mink farms and had spread to people.

The mutation "could pose a risk that future (coronavirus) vaccines won't work the way they should," Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference. "It is necessary to cull all the minks."

Denmark's police chief said they would start the culling as "soon as possible," but conceded that with 15 million to 17 million minks spread over 1,080 farms it was "a very large undertaking".

The novel coronavirus has been detected at 207 mink farms, including some cases with a mutated version that has been confirmed to spread back to humans."

In the FT it seems.

IMO Boris refers to SNG for early new year....its not detailed...its a better treatment together with a vaccine.

Treatments are coming

"And we definitely will get through this. There is light at the end of the tunnel. I believe we can be in a much stronger position in early 2021. In the new year, I’m confident we’ll have turned a corner on preventing and treating the infection caused by this virus. Our responsibility now as a country is to support these measures, keep the virus under control and make sure as few people as possible suffer until then."

In my experience you need critical mass of client side facing people and technical experience so this looks a great but predicable move now ITX have some investment funds. You don't employ someone like this unless there is payback on new commercial projects in the future..bring on 2021 sales increases from low hanging fruit in a very large global GREEN orchard.

So whats the relevance of this please? Parts sub-assembly in China and reimportantion to UK for complete product? Wtf is going on?

Just as an aside, I wonder whether the famous business school "Porters 5 Forces " business / market model should now be 6 forces! Adding Darwinian biological evolutionary forces to the model?