Member Info for elcobbledore

Interesting article on spod price forecast guys…

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/latest-lithium-market-views-and-price-forecasts-plus-asx-lithium-top-picks

I’m investing a new word. It’s called the kodal curve and is basically an inverted lassonde curve! Hopefully we will see some movement upwards once license is transferred and production quantity is up towards 10k per month….here is hoping!!

Https://www.mining.com/sqm-expands-into-africa-with-namibian-lithium-deal/

Another major in Africa…

Https://resourcesreview.com.au/bnf/lithium-market-fundamentals-remain-strong-despite-price-volatility-says-pantera-minerals/

Yep agree Lav, being low cost with a decent quality product is the best of both worlds, many can’t operate sub $900 pt. And you’re right, many spod refiners just want a consistent high volume of product guaranteed for years.

So if kod gets to 10k per month spod that will be v roughly £1.6m profit per month based on c$200 pt profit shared between mali government and KMUK. Not bad and only the start of production, looking forward to the big floatation in a few years 👍

The way I am looking at this is the upside outweighs the downside as it stands. They clearly know their stuff as managed to tweak things to get 5.5 per cent spod out swiftly at 50 per cent. I’m confident they can increase to 100 per cent. It may take a bit of time to optimise but they have the required know how. Samples have all be lab tested and shows this isn’t poor quality concentrate. We all know they’re sitting on a decent quantity. Not long left until we all know. Worst case, they are struggling to produce the required quantity at speed. But I have no doubt if they need to fix it, they will. Both kodal and Hainan have invested so much time and money they will work extremely hard to get a decent chunk of spod out at a good quality. Let’s remember KMUK can operate in these low cost environments and make a profit whereas so many others can’t. That’s a huge plus for me…

What are thoughts post rat? Surely as assore have a chunk ie 28 per cent I think, they will make another bid? If they don’t does anyone think financing will be a major hurdle as Piedmont seem to be happy sitting out until spod prices tick up? Tempted to go back in heavily post rat that’s all…

Although Bernie has stated the below…so clearly aiming for end March to be at proper production quantity. Also coincides with the outstanding $7.5m payment, ie will it be kodal or KMUK. Let’s not forget Hainan have invested loads in their processing plant. They absolutely need this spod so I’m confident (and damn well hope) within a month KMUK will pay the $7.5m (they paid the first tranche) and we get the license transferred. Hainan won’t want to delay getting their hands on the spod. Extremely good news to get to the required concentrate early doors plus have 3 months of ore stockpiled.

“The first lithium spodumene product milestone was achieved, and onsite laboratory testing has confirmed a 5.53% Li2O spodumene concentrate grade from the first run, which is line with Kodal's target for the operation. With further optimisation planned over the coming weeks, Kodal expects to achieve steady state production and confirm arrangements for its first shipment of product to China by the end of March 2025.”

Https://stockhead.com.au/resources/allens-says-expect-more-lithium-mas-on-the-cards-next-year/?amp

Haha only king yeah that would be pretty rubbish. Ta Lav, yep not sure when it’s required to release an RNS on %. We will have to wait and see…

Anyone know at what % holding an RNS has to be triggered eg for SC selling (think last time was 10.99 per cent)? Ta

Yep not great words for Atlantic there. But assore could well make another bid post rat. If they do any ideas what level? Surely has to be 20p plus? But previous bid of 33p wasn’t even presented to shareholders…

Ps any idea when an RNS is required for Suay Chin’s percentage holding being reduced?

Yep agree Lav with your points. I do also think it’s in Hainan’s interest to get the sp as low as they can until they offer a buyout, if they do of course, and when they said that kodal should pay the $15m fee that for me was a way to get the share price moving down. Fundamentals extremely strong here, 1 in 5000 junior miners only get to this stage and being fully funded is amazing

Https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Kodal-Presentation-Feb-2025-FINAL-1.pdf

Here it is, think they have 2 uploads of the pres, one has floor price in other doesn’t

Just fyi the pres has been amended online and does state the floor price on page 6.

Also I think for me this is all power play.

Hainan decided to state that $15m payment should be made by kodal not KMUK. Why would they do this? To sow a seed of doubt in investor’s minds and force the share price down. Coupled with Suay chin they know will be selling a load of shares, think it is 2bn in total.

Kodal has a decent power in resource upgrade info.

Mali govt have power in license transfer but clearly won’t transfer this until the remaining $7.5m has been paid. Due date 31st March so not long to go.

Surely the $7.5m has to come out of KMUK especially as the initial $7.5m came out of KMUK? I think it’s Hainan showing a bit of power as I’m not sure if kodal not KMUK has this readily available?

Ultimately I see it that if remaining $7.5m is paid by KMUK, license transfer will follow. Hainan would be silly forcing kodal to pay up, they need this spod for their plant so really wouldn’t want to delay further.

I think it’s a simple case of a major showing their power, playing games to push the share price down so that they can make a lowball buyout offer. I see this happening when license is transferred and resource upgrade is released. I can’t see a buyout offer being accepted sub 1p though. All my own thoughts so Dyor.

True i would be disappointed if it doesn’t hit at least 2p this year…

Anyone expecting to receive a dividend or potential share buy back in 2025? We should get news on something soon I hope…

Just a point on broker price valuations. They are probably the most pointless thing ever to pay attention to. Just do your own research and if you think it’s worth a punt, buy…if not, don’t.