Member Info for EinbertAlstein

Https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/exploration-and-production/area-plans/central-north-sea/

and we shouldn’t forget the sage of buckfastleigh’s ‘forecast’ of £43 or was it £34? these numbers are about as useful/ meaningful/ reliable as the brokers’ various numbers in the absence of the requisite modeling parameters.

personally, i would prefer £43 rather that the *****rdly guesstimates +/- £9 .

if i sell one of my 2 shares at £43 , i could buy quite a few bottles of buckie.

We do need institutional buy-in to support a higher price for this share. It is very good news that an FPSO has been secured for production and also that a second farm in is near.

For institutional investors to buy in they will need some more information in order to value the stock: percentage share, reserves, production rate (BOPD), cost of production, startup date, projected life of field etc. These parameters can then be modeled, taking into account forecast oil price and tax rates etc. Discount the calculated value divided by number of shares to determine current value per share.

Some of this information may be made available when the next farmin is announced, or at FDP ( by year-end) .

The point is that investors should not need to wait for start-up for significant price uplift.

At least, that’s what I’m hoping for with both of my shares.

Whenever the data are announced which enable institutional investors to properly value the stock, then we can hope for, or expect, buy-in and price uplift.

But looking forward, now, to more than 1 mince pie with my Buckfast Tonic Wine together with The Sage of Buckfastleigh AKA Dickupham.

What I’m waiting for is the Buckfast Tonic Wine party to celebrate £34. Forget Bourdough and Bergundie. I had a good crop of elderberries and parsnips this year and I’m rather partial to a drop of E&P wine. It’s bubbling away nicely. Should be ready for Christmas -it’ll be well matured by then.

Agreed. A new licence would be a liability: cost of exploration -3D and wells. Not what JOG needs. besides, they have good exploration potential in the Verbier licence.

I particularly like the bit that goes: MTMwNjE2ZTMxNjJkY2ZjM2JkMjQwNGVjNGYxOWUxYjA4NmNlZDk0NTlkYWQ4NjYxNzRjNDA3Njk0ODU5NWJmMGYwZGZkMjk4NTFkNGM2ZTY1ZGJkMWU3ZmQ2NWM1YTg4Y2E5MmY4ZjkyNTUyODU1OTcxNjQsMSwx

I think it has a certain poetry about it.

Yes , indeed , thanks Jim. A useful update. We await institutional buy-in…..

They can have some of mine at £7.OO. I’ll save some for £34… and a few for £43

Yes, I think so.

“ or wash the dead bugs” etc

Not like it was in the olden days when I had to say ‘ can I check your oil and Tyres and would you like me “to was the dead bugs of the windshield?’ Or was that my part in The Blues Brothers?

I can see this both ways: a farminee might want to ‘lock up’ the opportunity as soon as possible. The farminee would be made aware of the status of the FPSO negotiations and necessary approvals of the authorities. A farmin could , therefore, be executed, with conditions precedent prior to announcement of the FPSO.

Alternatively, it might make it easier for the farminee to wait for the announcement of the FPSO prior to finalizing the farmin….

Or… maybe the next RNS from JOG will be the two announcements together?

Down on the forecourt, pumping gas, on a quiet Thursday morning, I have a bit of time to prognosticate. I’ll go and wipe my dip-stick….

In the interims Benitz states

“the GBA development solution locked down and the licences covering the area extended, we now have a clear pathway to monetising the resource base we have built up over recent years.”

Why have we not been advised about the “locked down” nature of the development solution and clarity on “clear pathway to monetizing the resources”.

Or is there a contradiction in the Interims where in one bullet point states that an FPSO is the preferred development solution and in his statement Benitz says it’s locked down?

If this information is available and was made public, as we as shareholders might believe should happen, maybe this would provide some impetus to the currently languishing share price.

Good morning CHF. You didn’t mention £34.

You pose some interesting questions.

As many have posited on this board, until we have some solid institutional buy-in and support this stock will probably drift around. For institutional buy-in they will need numbers which will enable them to model future value and revenue; reserves, start-up date, production profile, (debt), retained equity percentage, field life etc. Announcement of the expected FPSO might be expected to be accompanied by some of the required parameters and other farmout(s) may solve the financing question or at least help define the residual funding requirement, if any. After these announcements JOG will be ‘mature’ as an investment opportunity and institutions and others would be able to make their own risk assessment and discount the expected value at startup to present day accordingly.

The risk/opportunity is that JOG will be taken out , sooner rather than later.

Investors may now realize that if they want to invest in a North Sea oil company with significant growth potential from proven reserves, there are not many alternatives to JOG.

As I have said before, we need a bit more information: in order to properly value the stock.

I’m aiming for a sort of mid point of the analysts’ valuations +/- £7 .

Dick, thanks for that stark reminder of ‘the good old days’.

Can that really be the same Marcus Stanton who has survived all this time?

Interims say nothing. Not good for share price

Does AB really exist?

Good morning Dick. Interesting reading. More your line of business (Been Counting) than my experience pumping gas and wiping dead bugs off the windshields.

However…

Even a second-hand vessel will require a few quids worth of modifications, several tens of millions? and the expenditure on subsurface work: drilling, wells, down-hole pumps, Christmas trees , risers, mooring systems, mid-water arch etc.etc.( lots of $$$ hundreds of millions?) will, I can only imagine, be Qualifying Expenditure.

So, the acquisition of the vessel my be excluded but I would suggest that there is still a significant chunk of expenditure that would qualify.

“Harbour Energy will increase spending in the North Sea this year and potentially next”

Dot, dot,dot…

Well, I’ve just woken up with a bit of a hangover after a couple of Buckies. It looks like the monk’s secret elixir is doing the magic.

I’ve heard from a friend who knows a man in the brown habit that sales of the tonic wine have been higher than usual this week. Could be related to the uptick in share price?

9 days at 8% per day would double the share price.

So we might only be a couple of weeks away from breakfast at Buckfastleigh…..

Dick, maybe you should make a non-binding reservation?