Member Info for EinbertAlstein

>5% acquisition. Price rise early next week ?

Should I be more worried about Miliband (Ed of the variety) banning bacon rolls than not allowing North Sea oil and gas production 🥓🥪 and , perhaps just as importantly, might he ban ( or tax ) brown sauce?

I’ve just listened to the PM’s speech. I noted that he mentioned ‘energy’ twice. He didn’t once mention ‘climate change’ or ‘net zero’. That makes me optimistic for a potentially helpful component of the King’s speech, helpful towards the North Sea and hence the development of Buchan. Maybe Ed Miliband should be worried about his tenure?. I hope so.

As far as I might understand it . Simple explanation of the recent TR-1s

UBS isn’t a new long-term shareholder. What you’re seeing is them briefly going above 5% and then back to zero — twice. That’s typical trading book / block facilitation. They temporarily hold stock while placing it, then distribute it.

The more meaningful bit is the appearance of Tejara / Stylus at ~5.7%. That’s a real investor, not a broker.

Put together, it suggests that a sizeable chunk of stock (~10%) has moved through the market recently and been absorbed, rather than dumped.

At this stage it lookslike a change in ownership / new money coming in.

Key thing to watch now is whether any new names appear in further TR-1s.

Looks like fairly normal behaviour after a sharp run. The move to ~140 was quick and that level had become an obvious profit-taking point. Once early buyers started locking in gains it likely triggered a chain reaction — momentum traders exiting and stop-losses being hit — which can look like a “waterfall” in a thin AIM stock.

Worth noting the price is still well above the old 90–100 range, so this may simply be consolidation after a strong move rather than anything fundamentally changing.

Not yet

Dick, I suspect that you are right about the investments not being institutional in the strict sense; probably 1 investor split between two holdings? But it shows that someone is hopeful. For that is all it can be; hope. There is no news and the recent buyer can have no information.

Reeves meeting oil industry representatives tomorrow might provide the Government with a way of modifying the EPL without drawing too much attention to it. At least I hope so. A sort of Sir Humphrey fudge that can be accommodated by Milliband under the auspices of a bit of growth and saving unionised jobs ( and gaining some tax revenue)

And this brings me round to how and where I think I disagree with your solution ( proposed in an earlier post) to the NS oil problem - that the oil companies should threaten or actually make production cuts ( if I understand you correctly . I did read it rather quickly ). This sort of industrial action works for unionised industries; public sector : schools, hospitals, fire service , doctors , nurses. These are all significant part of the Labour voting constituency and , importantly, public sympathy can be drummed up in their support., so the government concedes or gives in ( they are giving away taxpayer money) . If oil companies were to take action they would be seen as ‘ nasty capitalists’. ‘ holding the country to ransom’ . Please correct me if I have misunderstood your suggestion.

I remain optimistic ( I have to) that a ‘ compromise’ solution will be found for EPL which can be beneficially used by oil companies to invest without the Labour government losing face to its ‘environ Mental’ wing.

I wouldn’t give her a squirt of Red X

2 institutional holdings in 1 day…

And La Reeves did say that she is meeting representatives of the oil and gas industry tomorrow…

🛢️ JOG RNS decoded:

Still carried. Still cashed up. Still waiting.

FPSO might be swapped, EPL lasts till 2030, OGPM makes CapEx timing sexy again. Partners now include a giant with very deep pockets. Buchan’s still the bridesmaid—but now at a better wedding.

Call it progress… with a side of waffle. 🧇

Has the government just played a blinder — and the market totally missed it?

The new OGPM gives the North Sea what it needs: fiscal certainty, a sunset clause, and investment incentives — without political backlash. It could be the green light for Buchan FID.

JOG has proven reserves, a full carry, and now clarity on taxation thus providing a possible path to development and production.

Quietly, and without fuss, the game may just have changed.

It’s what the late Lord Lawson was saying 20 years ago.

Where’s the Sage of Buckfastleigh when we need him?

With the UK Autumn Statement approaching, JOG is starting to look a bit like a classic pre-drill oil stock — except this time, the oil is already there.

Let’s be clear: Buchan is not a punt on a discovery. It’s a redevelopment project with ~100 million barrels already proven. JOG holds a 20% carried interest — meaning they’re not paying for the development, but still get the upside.

What’s holding things back? Tax. The 78% EPL (Energy Profits Levy) is a major obstacle to Field Development Plan (FDP) approval. But the government is currently reviewing this regime, and many in the industry expect movement in the Autumn Statement. If the EPL is rolled back or replaced with a less punitive threshold mechanism (as hinted), the Buchan partners — NEO, Serica and JOG — may finally move to FID in 2026.

So what happens to the share price? JOG is currently trading around 150p, while broker targets remain in the £6–7 range based on full development value. That’s a discount of over 75%, driven by timing and tax uncertainty.

If you believe there’s even a 50:50 chance of the fiscal regime improving, and FDP progressing soon after, then JOG starts to look like a deep-value speculative play with asymmetric upside.

📈 Any signs of tax reform or an accelerated pathway to FDP could lead to a sharp rerating — long before first oil. As with all oil stocks, sentiment and timing matter. But unlike many, this one is not a geological gamble.

Just something to think about as we head toward Budget Day

Blah, blah , blah . No news is no news…

It’s either £34 or £43?. At 34 I’d sell one of my shares and wait to sell the other at 43

Psychology would be my guess. A magic threshold of 100 has been past so this might encourage people to sell? More sellers than buyers , price goes down. No news.

Https://www.offshore-europe.co.uk/en-gb/spe-conference/conference-programme/session-details.4426.242241.strategic-panel-session-1-what-is-the-oil-and-gas-future-for-the-north-sea.html

Maybe there will be some words of comfort (hope?) to be gleaned from this conference presentation?

Not me. I still have both of my shares.