Member Info for EinbertAlstein

NPV = £364.5 million

(Using £500 million off recent slide 3 with a 10% discount rate for 3 years.)

= £11/ share

A bit lower than the £34 I need but it would buy breakfast at Buckfastleigh if I sell both of my shares.

Dick , me old mate, I know I’m only a pump attendant and you are/were a clever accountant, so please correct my simplistic calculations.

WADR, G101.

Recent share purchases might only confirm the respective directors’ appetite for both known and unknown risks. I can’t see how it can or would confirm that there are no unknown unknowns. But what do I know from a chilly and windswept forecourt?

A timely update.

£34

It’s only just occurred to me that while there can only be reasons relating to a company for wanting to invest in a company, there can, of course be a myriad of external and totally unrelated reasons for selling apart from the obvious, that the company has not delivered on its expectations etc.

It’s January. Just sit back and think of all those bills that follow the ‘Festive Season’. It’s the longest gap between pay checks, the kids’ school fees need paying, the deposit on the summer flights must be paid, tax bill, car insurance, mortgage repayment, alimony, hungry family to feed, new puppy needs vet treatment, gambling debts to pay off, huge dentist bill, storm damage not covered by insurance, wedding to pay for, … please add to my list.

My point is that sometimes people need to sell and despite the lurking and hoped for upside in a particular stock, they are obliged to realize capital sometimes even at a loss. We are in the realm of loads of small investors in JOG. With just a few of them needing to raise a bit of cash and there being more sellers than buyers, the price will go down. Bailiffs knocking at door , sorry gotta go!

I don’t think it’s up to ST of IC to do anything. In my opinion what is needed is some good, solid investor relations; the Board needs to get out there and convince some institutional investors that now is the time to invest in JOG.

If the current CEO, who has done a commendable job (if slow) on the farmouts cannot do this, maybe it’s time for a new CEO to take the Company forward into the next phase of its development.

I too hope that the price will go up. I would be pleased if you could enlarge on how or why random number generation has anything to do with share price (or the price of eggs?)?

Firmly agree on the director purchases.

Benitz has done a reasonable job on the 2 farmouts. Not really Landsell’s domain: he was more of a rock doctor, I recall.

I can’t see the heavyweights on the Board approving expensive late life assets.

The execs will continue to be busy and in my opinion be earning their salaries up to and through FID. There’s a lot of work to do, even as a junior and carried partner in a JV.

They should also be making encouraging advances to potential institutional investors : we all believe there’s a good investment story waiting to be taken up. IR needs a considerable amount of effort.

I agree with your assessment of political risk, hence the need for the JV to work hard and fast to secure FDP approval and the take FID in a timely manner.

Personally, I’m not a sell at £4 person. I’m still optimistic on the £7+ hypothesized by 3 brokers.

No, I don't think I'm saying that. My crystal ball, Taro cards, palm reading , tales and runes all indicate that there are risks to FDP and FID. That is what, as Mystic JOG sees it, the same risks pertain to investors or a corporate takeover - same thing really.

If I put on my “Mystic JOG” glasses I can see very clearly into the future.

Unlikely that JOG will ever operate anything - (except for a coffee under parental guidance, photocopier, ditto).

Now the difficult bit, forecasting share price: however, the runes are lined up for ‘reasonable’ price stability due to the know facts of the 2 farmins.

Unlikely (improbable) drift to 50p.

Management buyout unlikely.

Buyer for company not impossible, particularly if share price does dip significantly: any buyer of the company has the same risks as current shareholders- when and will FDP and FID be secured. Will politics /economics get in the way of these milestones ?

At FID we can expect significant share price appreciation.

Post FID, mid 2024, hopefully before a North Sea-destroying ‘government’ is elected in Westminster we would expect to see, in Q3, RNS for contracts for FPSO modifications, a drilling rig and long-lead items. At this point, the market and in particular institutional investors will be presented with a very low risk investment and the share price will react accordingly.

At this point, my crystal ball (Amazon- genuine “crystaloflex” , £5.99 Made in China (of course)) runs out of batteries and and error message appears - something to the effect of DYOFR……

Thanks Dick for finding this.

This AI generated ‘information’ is pre farmouts. This makes me wonder whether, if the farmouts are taken into account, the ‘fair value’ would be 25% of or 2.5X the number stated?

I think it can be calculated to be £92.34 - the AI chat bot’s number in reverse. This is near enough to the Moonwalk projection of £100 based on JOG’s share of production/cash flow at startup with an oil price of $92.34.

DYOAIR

My mate Bazz reckons rocket science is really quite easy:

Build a metal tube (lightweight preferably) with fins on the side for stability

Fill it with propellant

Add some electronics for guidance etc.

Light ‘blue touch paper’

Whooosh!

Maybe there’s a bit more to takeovers and tax losses than might be implied here?

Wait till you see my Moonwalk after a few schooners of Buckie. Line them up, I’m on the bus…

No stopping it now; the chart is showing defini on the bus to Buckfastleigh.

Ah, the mystical dance of stocks! You see, in the whimsical realm of AIM oil stocks good news often triggers an unexpected game of hide-and-seek. The stocks, much like mischievous pixies, temporarily retreat to their hiding spots, only to reemerge later with newfound confidence, ready to dazzle investors once more. It's a quirky phenomenon we chartists like to call "The Bullish Moonwalk."

🙈🤦‍♀️🤷‍♂️💬💭📚🚫🧠📢📉

Literally?

Backtesting?

Recovery?

My pump-attendant’s guide to investments must have different meanings to what I think you are suggesting M279

Why not add nuclear war, bubonic plague or the horsemen of the apocalypse?

50p might be a bit too optimistic- I’d reckon nearer .05 p

Bingo!

Sorry Kids!

Actually Dick, I was hoping that the JOG logo with a few simple words 'Industry led etc' on the NSTA webpage entitled Buchan Area might help some to see the light.

My main source of literature is The Beano and they use words like "Pow" and 'Biff" to get the message across. The JOG logo on the Regulator's web page is, to me, kind of analogous.

BTW, what's a farmout? Does it include cow pies for Desperate Dan?