Member Info for eegbvi

Tuggy you need to keep an eye on the IMF meeting due 20 Oct. If as expected the Yuan becomes a reserve currency OPEC is free to change its oil contracts into petroyuan and the US dollar may be in freefall if investors start dumping trillions of US $. If that should happen despite intense US pressure in Riyadh the US will be in recession for many years to come. What price oil then. ?? At best Uncle Sam will have to stop printing money. All food for thought. !!

Sorry $2 not $2%.

Falklandinvestor. I knew you'd get there in the end. Thank you. Its all in the one word 'revenue' ie pre tax and depreciation. So at say $85 per bbl Argos gets about 5% on $40 net or so. $2% per bbl is about right !! Now you can do the maths again.

I agree the SP should move higher as the drill time for Rhea approaches but the Royalties situation is far from clear from the RNS. Eg 5% on what. ?? This can be well head cost price, landed storage cost price, or on net profit per bbl which is the most likely, or on simple selling price. There will be substantial differences between these. Doubtless ARG BoD did their best but on the other hand so would Noble etc. For example my own company did something recently where we get a $600k closing fee plus $2.8mln cash on first oil production plus 22% of the annual net profit of production thereafter which is not that dis-similar and as ARG will know, its all in the contract but so far the BoD has not quite clarified it properly. I'm sure it will all work out but I am surprised at some of the wild calculations made here.

Keep an eye on the October 20 IMF meeting which could well include the Chinese Yuan as reserve currency. If it is this will mean OPEC can issue Yuan oil contracts. If they do so trillions of dollars may be dumped and the dollar goes into freefall. There will be pressure on the dollar from September in any event due to the opening of the new Chinese International bank which is a major threat to the US led World Bank. If any of this happens you could well have oil at $250 per bbl but in heavily devalued dollars. The US would be in for 2-3 years deep financial problems then hence the on-going US delicate negotiations with Riyadh

Try doing your maths again based on oil cos average recovery at just 25% of OIP. E G if Rhea has 400mln bbls, which I doubt, you should recover about 100mln bbls which in such case Argos gets 5% royalty on the net selling profit per bbl over 20 years. I suspect that with the advent of GTL from 2018/19 the net 5% will be worth a lot less than you think. But then who knows over that time. By then the world could well be into Thorium reactors as being built now in India.

The 250 buy was actually a sell and buyback.

Think you will find that if either Isobel and/or Humpback are successful FOGL will have no difficulty in raising the $150mln then needed unless of course oil crashes to $45 again albeit this is unlikely as the Saudis are already pushing up the Saudi blend price to Asia on the back of a heavy increase in demand for crude there. Saudi heavy crude exports to US are also increasing at the expense of Venezuela while US sweet light shale crude production is finally decreasing.

Rhea one small point COS 38% ?? This is an 8 stack one I recall and only one of them is COS 30%+ with the rest of the stacks being less than 10%. That is the reason RKH and FOGL both previously said no to it. Of course though Noble & Edison could be correct but equally well FOGL/RKH could be correct. Only the drill will prove but meanwhile Mother Nature is keeping quiet. Hope this clarifies.

Wraith, only one problem with that. Argos won't be the only company applying for open acreage. !! And others have an advantage of already having proven acreage there whereas Argos is last to drill plus even with Noble etc cash won't have a lot to play with. It may be of course if the area gets very interesting some oil majors may dump the Argies despite their threats.

Can't help too much with any pre listing investment as name and details are subject to Exchange and Investment Banks c/as plus legal embargos even now. Our partners are a private oil major plus a Norwegian one. Private oil major which dwarfs Noble is the Arabian Gulf operator as you need to be acceptable to Gulf State Oil cos plus the oil Ministries there. Our operator had oil sales of in excess of $325 bln in 2014 so is acceptable to Gulf/OPEC. If anything changes I will let you know.

The average is 1 in 3 success rate & I should know as I own 33.33% of an oil co which should list in Frankfurt or London next year. We have P90 in the Arabian Gulf plus P20 in Kenya but we will only list when in daily production so its fully transparent to any investors.

Tuggy where do you get that idea. ?? Its just the usual speculation from people who have nothing better to do. No such hard evidence of any Isobel trouble so far so unless you have such evidence may I suggest you ignore it. At present things seem quite normal albeit there is no statement one way or the other by operator PMO.

The CPR referred to includes an awful lot of small pocketed oil deposits of less than 50mln bbls each. They are most unlikely to be drilled, unless ARG wants to do so. There will likely only be 3 or 4 targets including Rhea, so you need to allow for this. All the 'leads' are just that, not oil to be produced.

Given that almost all oil cos work on a likely recovery rate of 20%-25% (with the occasional exception) I suspect your 1bln bbls recoverable may well be a bit optimistic. But you're welcome to your opinion.

Pompeydazz there are only 3 or 4 that will likely be drilled inc Rhea. The others are all too small to bother with. A lot of small pockets of 50mln bbls each or less. If they are drilled it would have to be at the expense of ARG

Argos got well screwed with this one. Just enough coming in to keep the Directors' pay going for a few years. Nothing much for the shareholders of Argos.

The BoD is probably trying to engineer a higher price to sell off a few hundred million more shares for cash either to keep up with the cost of living or maybe through the BoD connection they will bid for GKP. Also pigs may fly. !!

I suspect will hover between 0.5 and 0.7p at least until 88E can announce they have signed up the block lease in April as until then technically they have nothing other than a bid allotment letter. As to the guy asking about drill dates my you are well ahead of the game. As a guess probably Q3 at earliest. If they are smart they will not put pen to lease paper until they have an inkling how GB went on as if its not as good as expected they may be able to renegotiate the block price. But if as expected or better just sign without worry.

Closed @ 1ct AUD on the ASX up 11% on the day. If you want to follow just go to 88 Energy Ltd through the FT System. The AIM price will always follow the ASX on this one so there's not much point in getting excited over small up & down AIM prices. Its a long long way from its previous highs and not a lot will happen until the block lease agreement is paid for and signed in April. That is what the $7mln is for.