Member Info for eegbvi

Pains me to say it but looks like they're both maybe wrong this time around. I do like to see winners such as them but turns out their soothsaying is just the usual dross from so called experts. Oh well back to the crystal ball for another quick polish.

Probably a tip sheet or brokers note.

Delete UK

You should be easily able to cover your losses in some oil stocks over the next few months but keep well away from the AFRs and perhaps GKPs of the FTSE/AIM. Dollar is starting to weaken plus Saudi will drain off 300k-350k bpd oil UK in Sept and OPEC may drain off more in Dec when the US shale bankruptcy numbers are known. But be careful to buy stocks where there is successful drilling in more stable parts of the world. Keep well clear also of anything in Morocco or off shore Ireland. I can think of two or three but I never do share tips.

It was the bit about repaying the broker that was bothering me as it could take a long time to get your money through bankruptcy. Then there is also the matter of being blacklisted by the Exchange (I know someone who was for exactly that) but if you make enough profit eventually I suppose you really don't care with human nature being what it is. Thank you anyway.

I have a little problem with your hypothesis. If you can't buy the shares due to the small matter of bankruptcy how can you complete the other side of the deal ??

Essel knows almost zero re oil just has an oil projects company in Dubai, which has been totally rebuffed by Gulf producers. Good luck to them, they'll need it.

He's totally paranoid re me. But there are two of them on the IOF ADVFN bb - the butler plus escapetohome, who has now turned up on here. Don't have much time today as am negotiating a producing oil co purchase which should fit with what we are doing.

The US formula does not include exploration costs but operational costs. Exploration costs come in the 'cost of oil'. If you haven't seen the contract (or have you. ??) then how do you know. ?? I certainly haven't seen it but I have seen quite a few US ones. And I'm not in any way knocking ARG either. Operational wells may quite likely be excluded as they usually are but exploration that would be most unusual.

Let us agree that neither of us has seen the ARG/Noble contract so I am only going on what I see usually in the oil industry and that I assume is what Noble would accept. You may be lucky that FOGL does not want any payment for any more slots being given away to Noble (apart from the one single one re Rhea) but I really expect that depends very much on how successful Humpy is. If its a duster (and we all hope not) then FOGL presumably will be amenable to giving up more slots but if it turns out that Humpy is a success then FOGL will probably want to keep those slots it has, subject to funding. There could be a bit of FOGL/NBL quid pro quo re that so have to see what happens. Also it seems PMO has taken on another rig presumably somewhat cheaper than ER and if so it will want to use the new rig instead of the more expensive ER. Finally re the 5% royalty its not exactly clear (in the absence of a copy contract) how this will be calculated. Purely an assumption on my part here but I suspect its some sort of EBITDA formula since ARG being an FI incorporation will presumably pay a lower tax rate than Noble and also won't want to have either depreciation or amortization being charged on any royalty payments. Nothing to fight over is there !!

You are correct to say that ARG isn't paying anything so that's down to Noble but it then reduces the net royalty payment due to ARG as the 'cost of oil' increases. Until that is repaid there won't be any royalty to anyone & 'cost of oil' is the prepayment on any operating contract anywhere. Usually its in the $$ mlns as it includes all drilling and back-up costs, mobilization, spares, legals, finance etc. Even State Oil cos and Govt Oil Ministries allow for it pre any taxes and royalties.

PMO is not abandoning Jayne East but is delaying it until after Isobel. But there is another cheaper rig due soon for more NFB wells for PMO/RKH/FOGL so ER will only be needed re SFB. FOGL has only agreed to release one slot so far re ER so if Noble and ARG want more they will have to pay for it. But should Humpy be a success FOGL will probably want to use all the slots in SFB. There is also now the question of FOGL block PL005 which is Susan and very much derisked by Isobel. That is a mean 350 mln bbls possibly which is on PMO's list. ARG will simply have to be patient or come up with some cash, Their choice.

Re drilling options, apparently FOGL only agreed to give up one and that is only after whatever PMO wants to do first in NFB. So if Noble wants more after Rhea it may cost them serious $$ and possibly even cut FOGL in on any ARG acreage. The alternative is get another rig when the present program is over. Either way it either delays ARG further or eats into their royalty. They will probably reach an agreement depending how much is on the table to FOGL

Could be anything re Directors but the shares ex options now held by his Spanish company registered in Vigo, and licences for import and export, construction and consultancy services. Those shares no longer need to be declared for sales etc. He may be hit for Spanish CGT. VAT, but based presumably on the 2p option price.

PMO say ER goes back to re-drill Isobel straight after Humpy then Jayne East, then Chatham. After that it may go back again to Isobel for a second well there. So Rhea will be November at earliest but perhaps even 2016 as Fogl etc hold the drilling options not Noble. Meanwhile one of the ARG directors has been taking up options and putting the shares into a Spanish company he seems to control. So he can sell anytime without too much problem of Director notification. But he may get clobbered for Spanish CGT and VAT Something to watch maybe.

Revenues will be calculated on net landed cost at the storage facilities as per usual. So there will be all the usual pipes etc and the pumping charges to P Stanley etc plus probably sales costs also but before any tax, or Govt royalties (if there are any). Any depreciation may or not be included also. You need to see the actual agreement but its very unlikely that well-head cost will be used to calculate gross revenues. I suspect we are talking a net US 75cts to $1 per bbl to ARG as its 5% royalty as this is the industry norm but without sight of the actual agreement no-one can be sure. If the oil price hits $100 ARG will get about $1.50 per bbl perhaps but its very unclear what is actually meant without sight of the contract as there are many production costs involved.

Think you're a bit naive re ARG having a cheap inside track to more acreage. That was true when there was no oil found but now FIG wants signature bonus $$$$ maybe even an open auction. They couldn't do it previously for virgin acreage but now they can. Typical bonus is $6-15mln $ per block upon signing. But I suspect being FI and new the FIG may offer some rebates on drilling. Just a thought from someone who is used to the game !!

All. don't forget this one is a very small market average 10k and tightly controlled by the BoD which can, and does, release stock when it wants to, at the price it wants to. So chasing it may well get severely burnt fingers. That's only £1k-£2k at present so its pointless getting frustrated with purchase orders. Good luck. Re Ginny's question re FOGL having consecutive dusters Zebedee was very good and Isobel is looking good, thereafter there's only one more to go - Humpback so quite unlikely to happen which is unusual in the oil industry.

There's only an income stream if Rhea comes good. It may hopefully, but it may not. If it doesn't then its unlikely that Noble will carry on. Its a four stack, only one of which is COS 30+ and that could equally well be gas. The gas will be ok though for liquid petroleum using the new GTL system which is about $15 per bbl compared to $45 per bbl for crude oil. The other 3 stacks are about COS 10-15 so much more risky. Just remember this when you're waxing lyrical re Rhea. You have every right to your view but it may or may not be correct. Right now only mother nature knows. Nonetheless I do hope you are correct.

No problem with buys as there seems to be a big seller providing a tap stock at present. Perhaps someone like FKH which did it with FOGL over several weeks.