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NBL doesn't keep all its eggs in one basket which is what FOGL BoD needs to learn quickly. If they hadn't done the DES deal FOGL would have been finished. The BoD needs to use the time looking at other oil or gas deals away from FI and put SFB in the bottom drawer for now. Its the one thing the BoD seems ok at.

Looks to me that both FOGL and NBL got carried away by all their own 'high impact' hype re SFB. They got that alright but not in the way they wanted or expected.

The BP $60 is for the BP/NIOC Tehran talks due soon. I deal regularly with Saudi Aramco Qatar Petroleum and ADNOC. All are looking for $75-80 in 2016 some as early as Q2. The fly in the ointment is the US shale bankruptcy numbers which even Saudi is having trouble with at present. Iraq output is falling and its Iraq that was producing the extra 2 mln bpd. Saudi production has also been reduced but of course Putin is carrying on as usual.

Should have been but probably wasn't. I haven't seen the contract so honestly don't know.

MMs bought more shares than they sold on Thursday so some will still be held probably by the NOMAD to clear MMs books. Those x million shares have to be disposed of via the MMs probably next week. Until they're gone the SP won't rise. But as bid price is now being quoted looks like MMs are relaxed about selling off the surplus left from last Thursday.

Interesting that in Feb there was about $105mln cash plus some FI oil plays, but none anywhere near proven and FOGL @ 25-26p. Now we have probably $30 mln in cash plus about 250 mbo of P50 which even at a heavy market discount is worth $300mln albeit not cash with an SP of 13p or so.That suggests this is well oversold in last week's panic. It was also confirmed to some extent in Friday trades where there was also about an extra 1 mln more shares showing as buys but no price movement so the MMs still have a Thursday overhang to deal with. Even more interesting is that the whole of the panic sells were small PIs so just maybe most of the institution holders are not particularly bothered by the Humpback apparent failure. I say apparent as at present no one knows other than NBL which is still sufficiently interested to do a full analysis. Seems they may be waiting for a higher crude price and meanwhile playing with their new toy ARG. All more thought food, not SP pumping by the way just musing.

FWIW I think in 2016 POO will rise faster and higher than most pundits are saying, starting as early as late Q1

Think we already have the Isobel gusher. Just a bit too gushing on the first well. The new step-out is more or less an appraisal well to try to increase the likely size of the Isobel discovery. If it works it probably will mean that Isobel is larger and better crude flow than Sealion.

The key to the whole situation is as usual politics US, Russia, Saudi/OPEC. Saudi can probably keep its output at the present price for up to another 9 months if it chooses. But will US shale last that long. ?? I doubt it except for Exxon Chevron and a couple of others. As to Russia its Middle East agenda seems to be keeping hold of its Syrian naval base, hence the recent talks re Assad etc. So first thing is the demise of US shale and there Saudi would like to say to its Gulf partners 'There it worked, told you so' but if by early December its not quite there re the bankruptcy numbers in US then we will see another delaying OPEC meeting. But it will likely give Saudi a face saving formula of gradual output/price tightening geared to OPEC increased oil contracts and falling US shale oil. As to FOGL I suspect the Isobel step out will be ok leading to Jan 2016 fuller information. After that I doubt FOGL will be encouraged to anything more re SFB which although probably holding a lot of oil therein is both difficult and expensive to deal with needing a Brent price of $75-80 to be even worthwhile. NFB on the hand only needs Brent at $50-55 to be profitable so FOGL will I hope start to concentrate upon its other two interesting NFB possibilities plus start to raise a bit more cash in a few months time. FOGL should also look seriously at other confirmed oil areas away from FI now that SFB is dead unless the oil price moves up somewhat. This was I think the real message from NBL last week, but they're doing a full Humpback analysis (on what I wonder) so that does rather suggest that if the oil price rises they will have another look provided its within budget. Meanwhile NBL has its new ARG toy to play with. On the question of NFB development that is getting much cheaper and more efficient with new sub sea systems now being employed so it will likely go ahead based on PMO's $85 in 2019. The interesting bit there is what will FOGL's share be & that initially is down to Isobel. There's also the question of where NBL sits in any final equation and that much depends on the ARG acreage final value. All food for thought. !!

I'm talking oil world not the market. Just doing a buy out now and looking at a certain couple of oils we can do a reverse take over of for Q1 2016. If we can do it some of the shareholders there will be in for a huge surprise. Those are the numbers we are using at present as oilco to oilco. Sorry no names or even hints indeed private companies may also be involved.

Very large excess of buys over sells today so MMs likely clearing a large overhang from yesterday. When that is cleared SP should start to rise as sellers dwindled today.

African crude lifted at $3 per bbl. Someone's had a few too many or its a misprint for $25 - $30 per bbl in Africa. That is the actual just now.

Yes oil on the ground as per just 3D is $0.5- 0.75 depending on likely accessibility. But where its been drilled and is somewhat more than P20 you're looking at $2-5 per bbl. With both zebedee and Isobel it's P50 even now except we don't quite know the amount likely re Isobel. I suggest Isobel will be 500 mbo or even more as PMO is always somewhat conservative. Also unlike some of the Sealion wells it's unlikely to need any gas or water injection. As a result I suspect Isobel will be developed before sea lion.

Suggest you go to FOGL website but Jayne is replaced by an Isobel step-out with a full carry of FOGL by PMO/RKH. FOGL will need to raise about $150mln next year after full CPRs of Zebedee and Isobel. They should give FOGL about 275-350 mbo 28api P50 or so.

Yes, many bankruptcies to follow next. I expect you're looking at a bit of a paper loss which I'm pretty confident will come right provided the average is below 80p.

BP are about to start talks with NIOC in Tehran quite soon re taking over some of the Iranian oil fields and talking about profit share. I really do wonder if that's the opening shot of their discussions. Maybe I'm being a bit cynical !!

Maybe we are about to reach a turning point as last month both Saudi and Iraq output was down slightly while China has announced the doubling of its oil imports for 2016. (Chinese domestic output is down 30% in 2015) US shale oil output should also start to move sharply down over the next 3 months.

If you look at today's shown trades there is a gap developing between larger buys and smaller sells but no upward SP movement just yet. MMs must have a tidy hangover therefore from yesterday. Once that disappears the SP should move (up hopefully)

I don't do SP guesses but given that 43p was reached very easily I suppose 25p-45p is quite possible but if by then Brent is stronger you can be a bit more optimistic

Interesting post on there intimating its all a whitewash until the Argie election is finally over. Personally I don't buy into it but with oil being politics anything can and does happen. As it is both NBL/FOGL played it down with NBL saying its not commercial without any reasoning for that given but nonetheless they are off to do a full analysis to be included in their area modelling. Very strange re a duster of some sort.