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I have a nasty suspicion that the NBL press announcement has a lot to do with NBL's quarterly E&P budget having to be within limit and on target, which is why NBL really doesn't want to start drilling NBL/Rhea pre January 2016 in the new financial year. But apparently NBL solely is paying for all the present delay and detailed analysis. Says quite a lot I think.

All oil before refining has in it some gases and other water based fluids. The question is how much. If its not much you get very heavy crude of about 10api often used for road bitumen. If its 42-50api you're into condensates with a lot of water and gases mixed in. Ideal is 24-32api which has enough to make it flow easily and is readily saleable to refineries. Light crude which a lot of refineries can't handle is 34-40api. That is what NBL/FOGL need to discover.

No need for nerves re Isobel step out as its essentially to prove further reserves which I expect it to do just as Zebedee has. Really its just an appraisal well some 4.5km away from the first well. Ok it could go wrong and in any event thereafter will probably wind up as an injection well later in such event should that ever be needed. But judging by the well pressure first time around the chances of a second success are quite good.

Because that sample, if they can get it, upon analysis, could be worth a lot of future costs by proving the oil quality, if not likely quantity. Humpy was never going to be any sort of production well but was about generally proving a seal plus if there is any oil at all in that part of SFB. Purely in that sense its been a success. It will add immense value to any 3D etc. I suspect it will turn out to be quite similar to the NFB crude and further well analysis, which seems to be what is likely to be happening now is vital to FOGL in deciding the next SFB move, if any. This well analysis could change the SFB modelling quite significantly, but which way ?

Agreed this is all very strange as they are very clearly logging and as Pete suggested coring also. Granted its a deep well but even allowing for that its taking an awful long time so if nothing else its certainly not a duster in the accepted sense of oil co description. I wonder if they perhaps think they have been very near to a much larger possible strike as could explain matters (nicked the ear instead of a dead centre) but at present that's just musing. Otherwise its as they said simply putting everything properly in place for perhaps another time if the oil price improves.

No never known it take this long to P&A but there's always a first time. Think a lot of the time was logging or checking it all.

Come in 604. !! That damned hamster's back down the well.

Agreed, no chance of NBL saying that but it may well be couched in the if and maybe language to give a lot of wriggle room for both FOGL and NBL in future.

Don't fall for that don't know if its water oil or gas nonsense. They know very well what they have from the logs !! And its not water nor at the APX depth would there be much gas. Any gas or condensates would be much deeper at HPX etc. Question is how much and quality etc. That leads to commercial or not. I suspect FOGL is telling NBL that they're wrong but we shall see.

Down 0.97% on the back of a stronger dollar fuelled by stronger non farm payroll figures. But the falling rig count indicates that US oil production is on the edge of falling sharply over the next few weeks which in itself should give a higher crude price. Re ER/Humpy looks to me that NBL is trying to sort out a well screw-up. I suspect they know that their statement didn't properly reflect the facts and FOGL was nearer the truth re the 40M etc so we will have to see what transpires next. Another Isobel perhaps. ??

That reply is a typical holding one. The fact that the rig hasn't moved is intriguing. It may be the weather but I doubt. More likely they (NBL) are still doing more tests and samples. That looks like either all the information they can get now for another well later probably when the oil price is better or they really do have a worthwhile find which is simply being held back by the present oil price. Either way it doesn't point to a duster and indeed NBL didn't say it was but simply that it is none commercial. I suspect there we should read between the lines ie we need a higher oil price for SFB (unless much more oil is found there)plus we need to take this softly for now re Argie politics. If more oil is found in SFB it will reduce costs so it looks like this one may actually be the start of a larger game in future, hence all the analysis. I suspect the full picture when finally released will be much better than the market assumes.

Yes and I have a ticket to Mars !!

There's a lot of nonsense on here over the last few days mainly from people who appear to know nothing about corporate finance. There will be a share placing but certainly not until 2016 probably Q2. There is simply no possibility of any placing at present since FOGL doesn't have any real information or numbers to support that and will probably not have what is needed until late January 2016 at the earliest, post Isobel & final Humpback analysis (which I suspect will be better than the market thinks). As to where FOGL goes next I assume it will be some sort of JV re the other NFB blocks it has 100% of at the present moment and if as is hoped Isobel step out comes good then FOGL should have no problem there since both PMO and NBL at least will likely be keen plus maybe some new interest from others once the Argentina situation improves. Regarding cash if as reported Humpback cost $200 mln then FOGL's was 27.5% of that less the last bit of the HPX drill so its probably around $50mln for FOGL. That would leave FOGL with around $40 mln cash plus $10 mln from PMO/RKH and something back from both the Isobel and Humpback insurance plus the rig owners. With that FOGL should have $50 mln plus and a free carry re the Isobel step out so there will be no particular rush for any new funds until well into 2016 probably on the back of a new investors presentation which I suspect may be ready late March 2016 on the availability of audited CPRs and cash statements etc. This is far from an AFR situation and as for ChrisOil he is a busted flush and should stick to the B&B business. The oil price should also be a bit better in 2016 and that would help FOGL.

We don't always see eye to eye but there may be a grain of truth in your assumption. From the NBL behavior this time it doesn't bode well for ARG and its shareholders as I suspect they will wind up with any crumbs that NBL decides to throw them.

Shale drillers bankruptcies just started. Parsley a couple of days ago gave us the the text of some US oil idiot trying to tell OPEC that shale is doing well even while his own company is in trouble. Pioneer, Hess and Marathon won't go bust but right now they are losing about $20 per bbl of oil produced, hence the shouting to the press. Who do they think they're fooling ?? Re any FOGL new funding that has to wait until late January I suspect, after Isobel step out results plus at least draft CPR for institutions. Can't be done at present as not enough information is available. By then oil price should also be better.

Sorry but you're aiming at the wrong target. The BoD had very little if any say at all in either Humpback or Isobel/Zebedee as the operators there were NBL and PMO. In such JVs the operator holds virtually all the cards and FOGL would have to dance to their tune. Or would you rather have had FOGL spend $200 mln on Humpback. ?? Choice is yours !! But from your posts its fairly clear you know very little re drilling for oil risks. If you want to go to the races stick with the bookies !! The FOGL BoD did an excellent shareholder deal re DES and but for politics ruining the oil price at present the FOGL SP would probably have been in for a re-rating at a much higher price. As it is the market at present thinks cash is king of any other assets. But this will change probably sooner than you think.

Stronger today @$49.24 but this is being held back now by Russian over production (Putin's Syrian adventure probably) plus some of the Gulf producers have delayed field maintenance until Q2 2016 to keep the pressure on US shale oil. A lot of bankruptcies there by the year end. At least now there is some light at the tunnel end !! NFB production cost should be about $35- $40 so PMO will look for $50 for a profit margin for 26api crude. With the new subsea production units production costs could drop by about $3-$5 per bbl.

Commercial or not. - the problem that FOGL has, and to some extent NBL also, is the RNS of 16 Oct referring to 40M of probably reasonably porous sands with oil and gas in them. That is almost twice the size of Sea lion at 25M. They then went on to say they didn't know if it is oil, gas, or water while at the same time doing wire logs. Of course FOGL/NBL knows what they have but for some reason they don't want to come clean. Looks to me like NBL simply wanted to carry on with Rhea simply to recoup some of their Humpy costs, so therefore its very easy to say its not commercial. That means really I suspect 'we're not going to spend anymore cash on SFB until we at least begin to see a likely NFB return'. Absolute sense commercially but NBL can't say that as to do so would give the New York market the wrong impression that NBL is strapped for cash.

Well I can give you one possibility. They're still logging etc which wasn't done pre announcement Wednesday night. Doesn't mean its oil of course but merely that they have a lot more information for the next SFB modeling round.

Think the market is just looking at the FOGL cash situation as there is as yet no oil reserves published. If we assume that FOGL cash has depleted by $70 mln since February when the SP was 24-25p, that is 8p per share so the panic of last Thursday seems to have well oversold it.