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Looking at trading numbers doubt there are many sellers left. !!

There will be a dozen or so US shale oil cos more or less unaffected, but how many medium sized ones will the Gulf oilcos pick up for peanuts if they want to, then add to that by buying up 50% stakes in US refineries That seems to be the game plan to some extent. As for the oil price OPEC will concoct some sort of formula to save Saudi face and then use it to try to entice in Russia and Iraq. in a little later. Iraq shouldn't be too difficult as its virtually an Iran proxy. But Russia will to a great extent depend on a Syria deal.

Up to now it seems to be Putin's support for Assad, which of course goes back to Russia having a Syrian naval base in the Eastern Mediterranean plus he wants to keep in with the Iranians re their nuclear plans. But with Iran suddenly siding with US Putin is getting a bit isolated. And Saudi plus Iran on the same side is unheard previously. Iran is I suspect playing a double game to make sure their nuclear deal and oil freedom don't get blocked.

Yes the Saudis are trying to talk the oil price up for now (& have been doing for few weeks) pre OPEC meeting. The key is getting Putin to go along with it while at the same time knocking out US shale plus Iraq. So far its seems to be slowly working.

Will be most interested to see exactly what FOGL says eventually re this, after analysis. I suspect they missed the target by about 150-200 meters to one side so clipped the edge only. I wonder if its faulty 3D or faulty reading of 3D. I recall having an onshore Indonesia well where exactly that happened. Turned out the drilling operator had a US 3D map which didn't quite correspond with ours from UK. So the drill operator also hadn't properly allowed for the land contours (or in this case sea-bed) . Just thoughts from actual operations elsewhere so may be nothing !!

My Saudi Aramco friends are speculating at $95-$100 by 2017 !!

Probably being very carefully timed to do nothing until after 22nd now.

Think we can expect that Tuesday/Wed next week as part of the spud announcement.

You have to take my Jeremy remark with a pinch of salt. !! I don't think he will last too long.

Jeremy will veto that while he has tea with IS

While I both understand and agree with much of what you're saying the problem is that FOGL is not the operator for any of those wells and as such cannot release any information unless pre-agreed by either NBL or PMO. It's simply embargoed under an NDA which if FOGL broke that the BoD and Company could face expensive legal costs. So investors are kept in the dark although I would be very surprised if some of the larger institutional investors haven't received the odd hints. None of them seem to have sold, except for FI Holdings and that was re UK property deals so it can't be too bad.

You don't seem to understand that Humpy was a tight hole and still controlled 100% by the operator NBL. FOGL even now will only be able to give out any news when approved by NBL. Probably after full analysis. There will probably also be an NDA included. So its really useless railing against the FOGL BoD and also somewhat unjustified.

That's about 5 days Iraqi output, but bearing in mind that Vitol buys up most of it for sale on the international market its probably a couple of months storage and possibly to make up for the drop in Canadian production over the last few months. Not something to particularly panic over. There's an awful lot more US storage available just now at places like Cushing whereas early last summer US storage was much higher.

The two miles long stretch of Iraqi tankers really is a bit vague. Do they mean about 30 tankers, or the normal stretch of a line of 4 or 5 tankers therein. ?? Also are these VLCCs (which I doubt due to Iraqi loading constraints) or the more likely smaller crude carriers ?? The author of that article has I think rather shot himself in the foot with that headline. Back to the Racing paper for me.

The two most aggressive producers are Iraq and Russia right now not Saudi. Saudi can probably last the low price until Q3 2016 after which they may have the start of a major financial problem which may be fixed by severely curtailing Gov't spending which of course could produce an even worse unrest problem. As to Iraq that is a major financial mess already with Government production contracts with oil majors already being breached in favour of Government operating costs such as army, police, schools, hospitals etc. How long the oil majors with production contracts will be prepared to be short changed by Baghdad remains to be seen. I suspect not much longer at which point Iraqi production will drop significantly. Re Putin we have an unknown quantity as Russia needs to sell a lot more crude to cover any Russian expansion plans plus try to make inroads into Saudi/China contracts however its not at all clear if Russian production can be increased any further and may even drop slightly over the harsh winter months there. We need to wait to see what happens re Russia also. All with respect to Tomkinson !

You're forgetting that US oil exports are still banned by the Government, except for the oil and condensates produced in Alaska. Congress and the Senate both recently did a review and decided not to change the law. But US is starting to export gas. So the US light oil from shale will continue into Cushing and other US refineries for a long time yet.

API late yesterday reported a drop of 482k bbls of crude probably due to most refinery maintenance being finished. First drop in US crude storage for several months. Wait now for the US Gov't figures. May at last be what OPEC has been waiting for. Brent now a bit stronger.

Looks like MMs are trying to stop any day traders with the spread at present so the 9.76p buyers yesterday will lose at 10p if they try to sell just now.

It's about 100k-150k bpd but sold at heavy discount so may be more significant than at first appears. Strange how Isobel will not now spud until after the Argie elections nor will there be any further APX Humpy news until after then. Purely coincidence I assume !!

Welcome, but are you sure you can stand the quietness on here after the III nuthouse ??