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No because the portfolio has increased also.

With FOGL directors only being able to pledge less than 10% of the issued shares and RKH directors less than that this one is very far from a done deal yet. The Isobel 2 result if better than expected could perhaps torpedo it since both sides plus their advisors will have to rethink the numbers.

The merger will need a FOGL EGM which really should be after the Isobel results so it can be voted out then. Fortunately its PMO as operator and I assume PMO will release the results asap for its own reasons.

Not really until RKH is in production but if the oil price improves next month then provided there's a clean audit there shouldn't be much problem in getting into FTSE 250. Of course though that depends on whether or not the BoD push for it and agree to tighter rules of reporting etc. I suspect they may not want to go there yet as it also include much more detailed financial supervision ( you may well ask where that was in the AFR situation ).

To those on here blaming the AIM please note that AIM is merely part of the market and it had nothing to do with the merger. The merger has been cooked up by the two BoDs not AIM and was probably done several weeks ago with the then proviso of the Humpy result. Had Humpy come good the boot would be on the other foot. As it is if Isobel 2 is good there could still be another twist to this, probably in favor of FOGL.

For now at least think you can ignore NBL as it has US shale oil problems plus Leviathan gas to worry about albeit its just farmed down a bit of its Cyprus gas problem and if Rhea comes good it has another half a dozen drills in the ARG blocks to play with. RKH/FOGL will be a bit too big a bone for NBL if you include all the field development costs. Even more so if Susan and Helen come into the development picture. At that point it will be of more interest to the likes of BP or Repsol etc. Have to see what happens after Isobel 2 I suspect.

The markets are only interested in cash at present, not oil assets so await OPEC. But that may change now Turkey has shot down a Russian fighter bomber and asked NATO to get involved. If that happens Putin may suddenly start to talk to Saudi/OPEC seriously. As it is Saudi finally overhauled Russia re Chinese oil business so Putin may at last be feeling the heat.

Phil 164 not a chance unless A. They have already completed the legals plus the FI Govt requirements which I doubt B withhold the Isobel results but PMO would have to agree to that also so its unlikely. If as a result of Isobel FOGL rises to 25p RKH needs to go to 60p plus. If not there's a good chance the merger will fail. Then the FOGL BoD has to hope that Q2 Brent is at $55-60 to enable a cash placement/rights at say 40p

Its more difficult for the RKH BoD as it owns less than 2% of RKH. Watch the FOGL SP as if it rises against the RKH price the deal will be thrown out.

No, a FOGL share is now worth 0.2993 of an RKH share so if RKH rises so will FOGL or if RKH falls so will FOGL.

It will be interesting to see how FOGL advisors RBC Capital struck a valuation of the FOGL FI blocks. Looks like its a bit of a shotgun wedding to avoid NBL claims. It can yet be overturned as both BoDs are only small shareholders hanging on to the usual options situation.

Its on FOGL website now. 10000 FOGL shares @ 9.61p gives you 2993 RKH @ 35.25p each just now so there's a small premium. This will be hard for the FOGL BoD to justify if Isobel 2 comes good and both of the BoDs only hold quite small stakes in the two companies so are not in a strong position. Down to the wire I suspect.

Once this is over there will be a stronger RKH that because of its proven oil and some cash, will be able to compete with the larger oil cos. It may also become a tasty morsel for one of the oil majors if the Argies finally behave. At least its all shares so that the two SPs should move in tandem. Clearly though SFB is a dead duck for a long time to come and has been ignored by RKH. The price seems to have been dictated purely by the NFB percentage holdings and the deal was probably cooked sometime late September when Humpy started to go wrong and FOGL failed to get any interest re more cash being required. The most damning bit was the blatant statement that FOGL had enough cash to carry on when clearly it didn't other than for overheads. Have to watch the RKH share price now plus OPEC in a couple of weeks. At least though it gets rid of the Phipps nuisance at last.

Completely wrong timing forced by the NBL situation re cash over-runs. The merger itself makes sense but probably driven by the NBL/EDN debt situation. Interesting bit though is the BoD only can speak for about 10% of the voting shares so this may have a long way to go yet when it comes to voting. BOR is in a bit of a hole though. Suspect in the end they were staring down the barrel at NBL and found that unacceptable. Don't really see that another Isobel success would have changed anything unless next month the oil price rises.

Yes of course Helen and Susan can be at least started in 2016, but FOGL will need more cash plus a farmout or just more cash so that takes us well into Q2 2016. Re Cyprus that will be expensive and its not as good as Israel Leviathan gas field re either costs or market size, unless piped to Greece also later. Not surprised that NBL has farmed out there as otherwise NBL may be a bit squeezed cash wise re the other projects & probably won't want another Humpy cash drain just yet. Leviathan farm out is partially political though after Obuma upset Israel big time.

Isobel 2 seems to be 40 days or so drilling from what PMO is indicating as the new well design is more robust than Isobel 1 so that will pan out towards 31 Dec. Touch and go therefore whether its in 2015 or 2016 books re auditing. Hope its 2015 as that will force FOGL's hand re the 2015 audit CPR. The other interesting thought is what will FOGL do next re Susan and Helen, both 100% FOGL, and both Isobel copies. JV again or raise funds to do it itself ??

Exactly what it says. Rhea is ARG/NBL only and Chatham is PMO/RKH only.

If the Isobel 2 well is finished prior to 31 Dec 2015 then PMO/RKH/FOGL will have to include its CPR in their respective 2015 audited financials due probably April 2016 so then there is no question of eight months to complete since without that the auditors won't be able to complete the audit. If that should happen the BoDs would need special dispensation from the Stock Exchange plus the Registrar of Companies. It probably won't happen as we all know what takes place if listed companies are late with the published audited accounts. I don't seriously think any of the BoDs will risk that as also the Board Members would run the risk of being barred from being Company Directors.

Seems to be stabilising after earlier losses since Saudi announced in the last half hour that it will take all necessary measures to stabilise the international oil price together with both OPEC and non OPEC producers. Only thing new there is the necessary measures bit which suggests a deal with Putin may be on the cards possibly re ISIS and Syria plus they now mention OPEC which means they have probably talked to both UAE and Kuwait. I suspect the next OPEC meeting will allow Saudi some sort of face saving formula to reduce production but as always the wild card will be Putin. At present Bank of America seems to think that Saudi is losing $18bln per month foreign exchange which is not yet a problem but will be by Q3 of 2016, particularly if China again devalues the Yuan simply to cover its exports to USA.

It really doesn't matter what date the actual CPRs have on then so long as they clearly state they deal with 2015 events or 2016. And for that we need to know the actual finish date of Isobel 2. As to Chatham it will be very tight re whether its 2015 or 2016. Re Humpy we can all almost guarantee that both NBL and FOGL will be in overdrive just now to somehow mitigate that $200mln or so well cost to make it more palatable to both their auditors and shareholders re the 2015 audited financials. I suspect that early 2016 that offensive will start with a soothing RNS or perhaps simple website announcement as by then they should also have a clear view of any Argie politics after Christina's departure.