Member Info for eegbvi

CPR itself can be quite easily done in six weeks. The thing to watch is the date the well is actually finished all drilling. It will be almost certainly geared to the 31 Dec 2015 Audit. If the drill finishes pre 31 Dec then it will be CPR and audit by March 2016 latest together with Zebedee CPR plus Humpy information probably Feb 2016 for those two. If on the other hand Isobel 2 finishes after 31 Dec 2015 then its in the 2016 accounts so no rush until Apr at earliest I think. Then we also have to consider any ER handover date to NBL as its almost certain NBL will not want to spud Rhea pre 1st Jan 2016 to fit in with its Q1 2016 budget. Accountants' kiss of death. !!

Always on the cards as Shanus has said. Not sure I quite agree with the P10/P90 though.

Due to an earthquake in Oklahoma much of the shale oil fracking there will be severely curtailed for several weeks. Well they can't blame OPEC for that. Be interesting to see if it changes the oil price though as Oklahoma is a big producer.

Oh that old chestnut !! GS was then and probably still is running a short in their forward contracts book. They must be getting a bit desperate by now. That number was for WTI, not Brent.

Hope its Jan but they may wait for the auditors in Feb, which is what I would do. There's now no rush for FOGL though as its not drilling any more wells just yet & doesn't need any fresh funds either. I suspect there may be a bit more Humpy info first. Much as we would all like some more info probably all we will get is an Isobel 2 spud RNS then early January 2016 an Isobel 2 closing RNS. After that it wouldn't surprise me at all if the BoD takes its time to discuss with PMO & RKH plus NBL prior to releasing anything definitive re the CPRs after also auditor discussions. They will be needed in the event FOGL chooses to circulate a fresh investment overview to institutions for either a later fund raising exercise or simply fresh information under signed NDAs.

Yes you're correct. The Elaine/Isobel summary on iii is quite reasonable from Shanus. The P10-P90 numbers may be slightly out but all in all its a good summary.

Do you know something the rest of us don't or is the $20 (WTI presumably) some wild speculation. ?? If its purely speculation you may well find yourself looking somewhat foolish. Choice is yours !!

1. We don't yet quite know what NBL did or didn't do. They certainly had time during the P&A to just about do a small sidetrack. As it is it wasn't clear (to me) if the NBL notice of non commercial referred simply to their deeper HPX package only or the whole drill. But if you take it all at face value then the oil shows in APX were too small to be of much significance, which then of course raises the question of why NBL carried on deeper to the HPX which being deeper was always likely to be gas or even condensates. All in all at this stage there are more questions than answers which plays then into the hands of the Argie conspiracy theories sometimes mentioned on here. I don't think that myself but rather that someone misread the 3D and quite possibly the drill finished up about 150 meters out, or the 3D itself isn't quite what it should be. This has happened elsewhere also when 3D has been shot in difficult places. As to 2 depending what happens next re Humpback of course that well can be reused for gas/water injection in principle should it turn out that it clipped the reservoir as I suspect it did. We may get some more information in Q1 2016. Sorry if this is not precise however neither FOGL nor NBL has been exactly open re this well.

Yes but its better because although 'similar' it clearly flows better and unlike Sealion probably will not need either water or gas injection to create well lift. Some of the sealion wells apparently need injection.

Isobel 1 said it all cap, seal, sands, pressure, good quality oil (somewhat better than SLion) so now its a matter of finding out how big the field is, hence the step out. It will take a few more wells to complete the picture though.

If you drill that close to Isobel 1 it wouldn't prove anything very much and then you would need a third well.

This step-out well is nothing like as risky as you seem to think and is a lot less risky than the original one since this time around PMO and RKH will have much more information to start with. There can still be mistakes but its less likely at 4 km away from Isobel 1 plus within a very clearly marked 3D area which has to some extent already been proven. It usually gets a lot easier when you know what you're dealing with as PMO/RKH does to some extent with this well. This is no Humpy.

I suspect that some of the Argie elections experts on here will prove to have been quite correct. ER looks like delaying until Monday at earliest. It also would not surprise me if over the course of the next couple of months we receive a less gloomy Humpback view. I still suspect that drill was out by a metre at spud which would due to the angle and rock contours mean 150 metres out at APX point of contact hence clipping the edge. Of course I could equally well be wrong and Humpback really was a bummer but I suspect not.

Yes they haven't even moved the first pawn yet. I have a gut feeling than Susan/Helen won't involve RKH at all. And if next summer FOGL successfully raises say $150mln it could even drill those two on its own albeit an expert geology/driller would be needed as FOGL has no experience there.

I suspect its simply a matter of plugging Jayne prior to revisiting Isobel. Hopefully we will get some more Humpback info as part of the spud RNS. If Isobel comes good I suspect it may even be developed by PMO before Sealion as unlike Sealion Isobel wells shouldn't need any gas/water injection to create lift. See what happens next.

Expect spud Monday /Tuesday and RNS Tuesday or Wednesday hopefully with also some Humpy clarification therein now the NBL noose is slackening.

Interesting that Panmure is £1 per bbl as that is the $1.50 number being given to me by others than Panmure.

The numbers the market is using seem to be based upon simple 3D possibles without any drill results (CPR or not). I am actually at present involved re a new AIM oilco listing for Q1/Q2 2016 and the market brokers plus investment houses are working with us at $1 - $1-50 per bbl. Those numbers you are using vary from company to company and are most definitely not a uniform average. Re FOGL cash yes I ignored that and I think your number is a slight under estimate.

Seems to be about $1 - $1.50 per bbl down from $3 - $5 per bbl re the market however oil cos are still using $2 - $3 per bbl depending on quality & accessibility. FOGL should have about 270 mln to 280 mln bbls already in total pre the step-out well. You can do your own calculations per share.

Hope you're wrong there as we need 10p or 100% just to claw back what was lost very recently.