Member Info for eegbvi

I suspect Flutters is trying to wind us up. Either that or he really does have a wife that's livid just around the corner threatening to cut him off from all sorts of things.

Sounds a bit drastic. You presumably sold yesterday then.

You're forgetting the Brent price. If by Jan its moving up think you can forget 20p

For anyone interested, assuming the Isobel step out is ok FOGL may well have 275-350 mln bbls P50 good quality crude plus some cash and an extensive data room re SFB in itself worth $$$. The P50 crude probably at $3 per bbl. You can do your own sums what may happen when Brent price gets to say $70-75 per bbl which may well be sooner rather than later. Subject to the MMs of course.

Looking at today's trades seems calm so far today. If it does stay that way means there really wasn't much selling at all re Humpy result, which will I suspect later be seen in a better light come January. Now for Isobel hopefully preceded by a steady climb back to sanity. Oil price looks fairly steady and still consolidating.

Think you need to face facts. SP is market driven not by FOGL BoD so be a bit careful when you go around making wild accusations. FOGL is guilty of poorly worded statements but that's all. And they had little choice due to the operator agreements with NBL and PMO.

After the Zebedee result NBL clearly saw Rhea etc as an insurance policy re SFB just as FOGL has Isobel (and others hopefully) BOR is in a fix though at present. Remember having lunch with the late Colin Phipps years ago and he wouldn't touch SFB. Shame his son wrecked DES

Bar charts yes but the problem is they can change in a few minutes so only of any use at that particular point in time.

When I mentioned rushing a bit at the end I meant NBL seemed not to try too hard re any liquids plus pressure and flow tests. Of course they may have had a side track problem with that also. Its all economical with the truth to me. No lies but an awful lot missing. Whether the institutions get a lot more info under the cover of confidentiality agreements that's another matter though.

There's a big chunk left out at the end LSE lost it somehow. Gist was Saudis will fix the weather as shale will be down plus Iran is overblown but problem may still be Russia and Iraq production. NBL will drill more ARG while FOGL probably organises a placement on the back of Isobel while PMO/RKH argue re developing Isobel or sealion first. Would also expect SP to recover starting with Isobel spud. All just opinion as there are no details to analyse. Re FOGL cash I suspect it will be somewhere between your number and mine so FOGL has no real problem unless another deal pops up.

Been reading and trying to decipher the word meaning of these two announcements plus the previous one of oil, gas, water, even perhaps olive oil. I think overall its fair to say that much of this situation is caused by NBL commercial politics (nothing to do with the Argies) as its clear that NBL set out with a Q3 budget plus timetable with probably ARG/ Rhea fitting into Q4 2015 so that costs can all be defrayed in 2015 at least as far as any drilling is concerned. Hence the sudden end rush and no flow tests or pressure tests. They will instead largely rely upon well logs and lines into early 2016. From that they both know now that they have oil not water plus some gas probably mainly in the HPX section which in my opinion NBL foolishly pursued as at that depth it was almost certain to be gas or condensates. FOGL was absolutely correct on that bit in not getting drawn into it. As to the analysis etc from the well logs plus lines they will certainly know what they have oil which is I suspect 28api crude plus some gas. The question then arises, how much, is the porosity ok and where are the main oil pools or deposits ?? These will all now need to be factored into any likely calculations. Meanwhile the well has proved the effective seal plus a working hydrocarbons system which is more than any previous SFB well ever did. This will take NBL and FOGL into Jan 2016 by which time hopefully NBL may have had Rhea success thus defraying its Humpback costs and FOGL a good Isobel result allowing it some room for a share placement or underwriting manoeuvre. I doubt it will at this stage be a rights issue judging by today's market of only 2% or so of FOGL issued shares actually changing hands plus since FOGL is fully carried re Isobel there's no great hurry for more cash unless another deal suddenly pops up. Be interesting to see how much cash FOGL has left now but based on $95mln at the start I think they have to pay 27.5% of about $160 mln or so plus there is another $10 mln due to them so they should have about $35 -40 mln left out of which there will $5mln or so for analysis and CPRs once PMO agree to that bit. Clearly no Humpback CPR will be due. Returning to the question of the Humpback well being non commercial I would not be at all surprised to see Humpback finally flagged up as being possibly 150-200 mln bbls but needing a Brent price of $75-80 to be worth bothering with on its own. SFB is much deeper than NFB and also somewhat further from P Stanley and PMO has already hinted that sealion is ok at $50-55 per bbl so if we allow for profits the extraction cost should be in the $40 range including taxes and pipeline to port of shipment. That would likely take Humpback/SFB into the $55-60 range for costs per bbl so its makes it quite obvious the call of yesterday by NBL. What we have at present is the golfers on the fairway deciding the next stroke to the green and the pin while looking

Just as I thought CPRs etc probably Jan 2016 but will need PMO co operation

Major communications problems so have to catch up with it all first.

Think the next resistance level will be 30p.

There was certainly neither high frequency trades nor any scatter gun approach today. Maybe reserved for tomorrow perhaps ?? I suspect it was merely MMs playing about with a marker price at close of play similar to the opener this morning. Unlikely to be real trades as the costs would be more than the shares in the deal.

Why don't you go off and do some research on the new successful iodine agricultural additive re fertilizers. Its backed by the IFA, Bill Gates Foundation and IOF plus SQM in Chile. It will give you and the rest of us some more independent investment advice so you stop us all losing money re IOFplus of course you can tell us all which way the iodine market is moving which will be far more useful than constant comments re the up and down SP movement. May help you also re the FSC understanding. Also for once you can present some serious background facts.

Since you only have the very noble thought of simply protecting novice investors why on earth don't you join the FSC. We"re sure they would welcome your expertise and views. As to people mentioning going short in IOF that really is a joke as I very much doubt even IG would be able to put together any meaningful short position together re IOF I'd love to go to the races with you just to see how you manage to back the winner after the race is over.

Very interesting one which is clearly the first shot in out flanking the Chilean producers. Have to see how it works but if the EU and Japan comes in together with US/Canada then Chile may have a headache as its basic produce will be just that, basic with no premium price attached.

With the SP rising (21.90p now) not much they can do other than stay in the bushes. Surprised they're not on DOR. They could have a field day there especially at its now suspended

Well if they were he's probably lost his shirt. Last seen skulking in the bushes together with parrot and hotly pursued by KT with the stuffing ready, and pharmajiles with the gun.