Member Info for EbbsandFlows

You make money by adding value.

A dairy farmer needs lots of room and resources to produce milk at a very low unit cost.

A cheese maker needs much less room to take that milk and add value to it by turning it into the cheese that everyone wants to eat. This cheese is so great it wins awards and shops all want to sell it as they get to make money of the cheese sales. The classic win - win situation. The shops want to sell more so start promoting it in stores / give it the best positions to increase sell. The cheese maker then has to increase production to make more cheese, but all he needs to do is buy more milk which is coming down in price due to oversupply. This is good for the cheese maker as he is in the business of cheese making not milk production.

The cheesemaker is a clever so and so and has created a recognisable brand for his cheese, let call it chill-cheese. The brand becomes more important than the cheese and instead of people asking for cheese they start just asking for Chill. Everyone wants there cheese.

This then catches the eyes of a much bigger cheese maker, Mega Cheese Inc who are seeing people are going crazy for chill-cheese. Guest what they do next, that right Mega Cheese Inc go an pay a massive price to the cheese maker for his brand and the rights to produce cheese using his production technics. The cheese maker lives a very happy life.

A tale of two shares

One share has a director who takes out lots of money each year but never buys any shares. He tells whoever is interested in listening that his oil well if the most impressive he has seen in his 35yr career, the well is over such an immense pool of oil he used to like to call it Nationally Significant. He ran some very short period flow test so that he could release massively over estimates of how much oil would come to the top to pull in investors so that he could dilute them to pay for the aforementioned massive wages.

The other share is run by directors who could had released wild numbers to excite the market but have chosen to let them settle down to normal rates before declaring a realistic figure to the market. They also decided to plough in £500k of their own cash into buying shares on the open market a few weeks before this trading update.

Now I own both shares, the first one makes me feel like that poor lad in the potting shed in Scum, the other one makes me smile and feel relaxed about the future.

A little history lesson for those who are interested

This is the article which made me first invest in Avacta in 2011
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/avacta-signs-us-agreement-1939637

Alastair Smith, chief executive of Avacta Group said: “This is a very significant agreement for Avacta and I expect it to be transformational for the group.”

It wasn’t.

I then got excited with this article in 2012

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/avacta-group-has-high-hopes-after-test-device-breakthrough-1879672

Avacta’s chief executive Alastair Smith said: “We’ll target the vet market initially, then we’ll translate it to humans. We had significant delays in getting it to market with a number of technical challenges, but now the first units are being used by vets and the feedback is very good.”

Sounds familiar.

Mr Smith said the device will include a range of other tests that aren’t available elsewhere, but he could not mention them for competitive reasons.

Sounds familiar.

Did it bring in money – no it didn’t.

Got excited again in 22016
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/avacta-playing-key-role-fight-against-zika-virus-1793998

And now its 2020 – the story is similar, the language is similar and I have everything crossed that the outcome is completely different.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/consumer/avacta-set-momentous-milestones-it-prepares-launch-covid-19-test-2985152

Or Mr Smith place in history will be that of reasonable scientist and incredible inept business man.

Dedicated work that.

Did it mention in the tender you actually need a validate test, which can be produced at scale to take part in the tender? Might rule us out if it does?

Personally, I would describe myself as King of the Numpties.

But let us not spend too long thinking about all of the things we have been told over the last few months, which turned out not to be completely true.

I doubt there is an NDA? I went for a dog walk with a friend at the weekend, who has supplied a sh*t load of PPE to the government since the start of this and I asked him if he has had to sign an NDA. He instantly replied NO.

we don’t appear as we don’t actually have a test.

The have evaluated 30 to produce a list of the six most promising.

I hope they also release the list that covers the other 24 as well.

We have been led up the garden path for months now that the all-important news is just around the next corner, which is very close, shortly, May, summer and just a few weeks away etc.

If we are not on the list (personally I do not think we are) that share sell of a few weeks ago stinks and should be robustly challenged.

I think we just need to calm down, nothing has changed.

Its only took 4 weeks for the team to produce the affirmer reagent to bind to the C2 spike protein

and then another 31 weeks for tec transfer not to be completed so we still await the 10,000 tests to be produced, so clinical validation has not been achieved so no tenders can be competed for or orders filled.

Good job 42 days ago the CEO informed us the above was only a matter of a “few weeks” away from being achieved.

At least this share makes the America election look quick at delivering news.

Companies release RNS to clarify press speculation regarding deals etc We have the prime minster addressing the nation and openly talking about a rapid 10 test, staring in days, requiring no medical knowledge to perform.

Avacta have been incredibly happy to position itself at the forefront of this national effort, you could say £40million times happy.

So why no RNS this morning updating the market, clarifying their position?

So, what conspiracy theory do you go along with?

A
This has all been a master class in smoke and mirrors which we have all fell for and possible one day you might make some of the losses that will soon come to this share back with the original business plan of increasing cancer care?

On Saturday Boris said,

“The tests have already been trailed in schools and hospitals across the country,”

We haven’t even been informed our tests have gone into manufacturing, so how can this be ours?

CEO has time to go house hunting whilst coming up with solution for worldwide pandemic and sells some of his shares to be able to afford it.

B
This reads like a gripping page turner of a novel.

This is of such national importance / security, all involved have had to sign the official secrets act and the normal rules of the stock market are suspended during these unprecedented times for Avacta. The test has been secretly tested and produced in massive quantities for the army to deliver on mass from Thursday. Big Ali share sell was a long-established code with his old university housemates to start buying in big before official news is released. Come Thursday the county is saved and the people who have kept the faith are rewarded?

Tick tok only a matter of days until we know if it’s A or B

one of the best comments ever, well done

not really, thought it would be more fun but very little out there to choose from, even went out to 20 miles

I'm not the only person who has looked at Rightmove today for expensive houses around Wetherby?

No mention at all of the Covid Test in the "About Avacta Group plc " - I think that tells you all you need to know

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8865733/1-3bn-High-Court-challenge-lucrative-Test-Trace-contracts-launched.html

OptiGene is a small medical diagnostic firm based in a single-storey industrial unit in Horsham, West Sussex.

But now, the Mail reveals today, it has hit the big time: a £387million contract with the Government to build and supply 600 Genie HT coronavirus testing machines, together with enough chemicals and kits for 90 million tests.

Last night on the news, they said contract tracing is only reaching about 40% of infected people’s contacts.

Utter Rubbish.

Imagine now if they launched a testing solution that could do 1,000 samples a day and the equipment is already in lots of hospitals, we would see the rapid growth in testing the country needs.

But politically they cannot do this as this would then mean Dido Harding’s team would only be contacting 5% of infected people’s contacts. Political suicide.

This woman is failing the country and us in turn.

https://presentations.investormeetcompany.com/conferences/5667798d15ea/bigroom

Liking the loyalty to the UK.

When the UK goverment stops failing us and the county this is going to be massive.