Member Info for DShox

Oddly enough, underwater on neither. EUA has already RNSd it has received proposals and is working on liquidity event. "Posting positively" - well yes, if you're invested you generally do. Don't worry yourself with my P&L and positions, best to focus on your own. Enjoy.

As per title here and the tweet. That's it.

Always 'my view based on RNSs and my own thoughts'.

nm

Paid is 2.30p - so 0.1p higher than last close. Clearing last couple of PIs on Bid.

Good to see something other than from the FT!

Target sale price 10p.

MOEX sp still 8p and trading sideways, so they are expect the same or probably more if you're buying in the 8s.

Excellent post NoFace. Unfortunately it comes back to the presence of Board functions in the UK to maintain a listing presence, so its indeed these guys and the parent in London that breaks the rules. The answer comes back to, sell POGs interests in the subsidiaries, take the cash and let the mine run without UK politicians firing sanctions out like tennis balls to make themselves look and feel important.

rbrand, not sure i follow, why would the assets not be sold for the highest price with AP at the helm to ensure all value is communicated as well as accretion opportunities to the new buyer? Have you been to its website? If POG was only worth $200m (ie the value of the Term Loan) so bondholders and shareholders got nothing, then might as well hand it over.

20Moz at today's spot is $40bn of resource. 7.2Moz of reserves is $14.4bn. POGs market cap is currently $111m - its the third largest gold producer in country. You might not like the people, but the buyers fighting for POG don't much like each other either and the best offer wins. Major shareholders including those in Russia are in the same boat as PIs here and their pals run the company so are unlikely to let them let it go for tuppence.

Lawrence admittedly I have grown to appreciate your blogging. You've definitely ridden the highs and lows, thoroughly hacked off for good reason if you've seen this travel from 40p. It's going to be a wild week - sharks, day traders and momentum chasers perhaps mixed with some more interesting characters getting involved. I think POG on MOEX closed at just over 8p so a good start will be narrowing that gap.

Good question - usually an EGM for a vote on the Board recommendation but I stand to be corrected.

So this is the statement out of Ukraine and slapped across Bloomberg today. I think there's growing acceptance Mr Putin will declare end to offensive operations in a couple of days when Azovstal Steel Works defenders either surrender or perish due to lack of water. Mr Xi of China is also getting ready to speak to Mr Z, right on que. Mr Putin was also on TV today pumping out how the RUB had recovered and further foreign currency controls relaxed. So the sentiment is going to shift quickly again but more so than when the market got excited and pushed this to 5.25p in 3 days. One thing I've learned, buyers buy when others are fearful and cannon fodder buy when the first lot have bagged.

Freddie, I'm aware the waiver is short term but nonetheless welcome. The long term fix is selling POG to the highest bidder to change ownership, which is what Thursday's RNS was about. MMs enjoyed themselves and the change in direction evident as the afternoon wore on with MMs dropping small amounts of shares on L2 Ask to NT buyers. More than a few punters and interesting characters might shift this quicker than you think.

Bit of both! Central Bank buy price is set daily as per RNS and tracks (at a discount) the London spot price. So yes, POGs getting over $1,700 now and good news is, 'when' GPB is replaced as offtaker, all gold in the gold room will get sold at these higher prices assuming POG continues selling to CBR. Since GPB makes no profit on the offtake it might be OK for POG to sell at spot price to refineries in China or Kazakhstan for example. RNS left this one open so confident a waiver will land.

Up 3% today to RUB 8.88 so investors are positioned expecting >10p t/o. I expect investors this side of the pond will look for a quick bag and de-risk or exit before ink.

Yes, just search POG and should find it. Don't link here or you will be auto logged out and need to write to admin to get access again.

Lawrence, sorry yes there's a much bigger group and growing so didn't make much sense to keep it going.

As POG formally invited offers, I expect approaches and offers need to be RNS'd even if high level narrative provided only. Well timed updates will play to POGs advantage and evidence level of interest. Confident the phone will be ringing. This is done in weeks in my view same as Kinross but days if you work on a theory conversations have been ongoing since March.

I don't see Uzhuralzoloto Mining Company (Ugold / Strukov) with 29.18% of POG allowing itself to be wiped out in a cheap offer because it can take POG private itself and integrate into Ugold operations. I half expect Ugold to be the buyer of loose shares and launch its own t/o offer. Sergey's REGION might be back in the market along with other colourful IIs/characters for control of the company. Hence I believe the sp is going to be interesting with lots of NT action and shenanigans, which started re-appearing from mid-afternoon trading on Thursday.

Russian gold miners will necessarily retrench to local investements and POG is the country's 3rd largest gold producer. Local large players circling this one-off t/o could include Polyus (huge), Nordgold (slightly smaller than POG in Russia), Fortiana aka Highland Gold, Polymetal (I'd say unlikely however), Pavlik Gold backed by ARLAN investment group etc.

Yes was decent chat, not sure why on a saturday a bb monitor would be deleting posts? My view is in summary:

1. POG can't pay GPB or sell gold via GPB and pay bondholders due to a technical issue (i.e. UK sanctions on GPB specifically). Obviously not an affordability issue as SP was comfortably 20p into 2022, declined to 14p on pre-war tension and then tumbled to ground-zero as tracker funds force sold. Subsequent GPB sanctions then came into leading to appointment of AlixPartners, HQ'd in London and US with a strong M&A team.

2. Positively conversations on sales waiver and debt sale to continues and with RNS on looking for sale asap as an option, GPB may be more amenble to a waiver. So yes, I agree with an earlier post this possible.

3. Kinross on 2/3 announced that due to the war, it was undertaking a 'transition plan and suspended operations' in part due to supply chain issues and ESG. On 29/3 Kinross announced exclusivity with Highland Gold (Fortiana Holdings) for $680m to acquire 1 mine and 1 project. It also interestingly said it'd received 'multiple unsolicited offers'. I suspect Fortiana's Cyprus holdco played a part as a route for USD payments out.

4. Kinross' Kupol mine, slated for 350koz in 2022 pre-suspension with roughly 1.25Moz Au eq reserves was valued at $400m. So Highland paid $650 per reserve oz.

5. POG's reserves are c.7.2Moz at $1,700 and resources of just under 20Moz. It isn't going to get $650 per oz (!) but even I could get more than for Kinross' aging underground mine and a project that still needs 100s millions spent on it.

6. I've looked at AP's M&A Insights paper and the team. It has a pretty sharp approach and Stage IV is the launch of the sales process after understanding 'the whole' and valuing accretion opportunities to a new buyer. What's for sure, Kinross only needed to drop a hint and bidders emerged. POG has clearly lit up for 'for sale' sign and AlixPartners likely been prep'ing this for competitive sale.

Personally, I was pleased to the intention to sell and is the right long term route with or without GPB issues, which will be solved by change of ownership. For LTHs, they have been suitably warned of an inevitable loss of share value in the RNS and directors covered themselves.

Someone on another chat pointed out $680m (ie. same as Kinross) would be 5p to shareholders. Many would like to see exit value of 7.5p-10p. I believe this is the only other large western listed gold miner exiting Russia, so those that failed to buy Kupol will have to work a bit harder. Western markets have marked down the assets to a point H1 '21 EBITDA of $145m exceeds current $111m market cap - bit silly if you are assessing this in Russia or China.

Roman's reappearance points to Pavlik Gold, where he was long time CEO until 2018, under the ARLAN private equity umbrella as potential suitor. Comparable in scale POG will be a huge opportunity for expansion also located FE Russia.

Of course we have Uzhuralzoloto as 29.18% shareholder aka Ugold / Strukov.

Both are top ten gold producers in Russia.

£85m market cap is an LSE disconnect from reality. Watch this space.

L2 has little stock on the Ask. Last minute spread play.