Member Info for DShox

BoB, agree on the far right. They've masqueraded as "the left" and neoliberals of today would be unrecognisable by the liberals who stood against wars of the past, such as the student protests against the Vietnam war. The EU and likeminded parties are in fact better characterised as right-wing neoliberals, completely intolerant of others and seeking to push their ideology down the barrel of a gun. Corbyn is genuinely leftwing and modern Labour couldn't stomach him. Thats why as I said after the last GE, it was already obvious Greens would rise to replace Labour as the party of the left.

Its funny, that's exactly the sort of trope the AfD MP in attendance replied to. The polls show the public agrees. I expect AfD and BSW, both calling for better relations with Moscow and re-opening Nordstream, to keep rising in the polls. As for Merz, only a matter of time before CSU walks out to collapse the coalition or he's replaced.

Good to see AfD at SPIEF, confidently replying to CDU tropes by pointing out its policy toward diplomacy with Russia is evidently more popular with German voters than imploding the economy for Zelensky.

According to the Chamber, German companies have >€100bn of assets in Russia, and 75% improved performance last year. Just for context.

If a Russian-German Trade Chamber delegation returning to SPIEF for the first time sinde 2021, representing 1,600 German businesses operating in Russia that turned over €10bn last year, being one more than 100 countries attending are "minor nobodies," then comfort yourself indeed. BILD, which is a well connected tabloid type rag is already helping spread the story that seniors at the CDU are talking about replacing Merz.

The Germans are at St Petersburg International Economic Forum today, along with the Americans, French and dozens of other countries. When or before German Chancellor Merz gets roasted in local elections in September, or before then, he will be gone. His replacement will almost certainly adopt AfD policies to arrest the deindustrialisation and budget deficit crisis. That means a return to Russian pipeline gas and seeking improved relations. Fact is, today's AfD is closer to the traditional CDU of old. Latest poll shows CDU/CSU at 21% and AfD nearing 30% - those are two important psychological and meaningful thresholds, and they're certain to be crossed soon.

Struggling with WK being setup to run at a loss. A mass gravel washing operation. Gold is part of the basket and up significantly. How could it be valued near $300m? If there is shenanigans denying revenue, better to take the belligerent to arbitration.

If it does delay the transaction, WK can be mined and the company may determine its profitable after all. The unprocessed concentrate is not a sanctioned product.

This is more interesting because the chat is that he's being lined up to replace Syrsky as armed forces head. Although a hardline nationalist, he is a CIA asset and a realist on the situation facing Ukraine.

Much more interested in the Russia-Kazakhstan Summit in Astana alongside the Eurasian Economic Union Summit running tomorrow to Friday. Bilateral and integration agreements could unstick the AIX potential blockage.

"Time to go electric" 😆

I'd just add, every major US bank has announced ditching of the traditional 60/40 portfolio and wants at least 20% commodities. If you believe all wars are bankers' wars, and just put the mosaic together, getting into Russian metals and minerals and allowing Russia to buy USTs, might now be priority. The US is already buying ever increasing amounts of Russian potash and nitrogen based fertiliser, palladium and uranium, and heavy oil. Its just Europe and it's vassals that it bans.

Exit taxes applying to unfriendly countries is the start point. Their application was an economic protection measure to raise the cost of exit, maintain an internal orderly market and preserve industrial production. Sanctions alleviation that restores access to the dollar system probably then comes with allowing US businesses to re-invest in their US operations in Russia, and specific projects in an SPV with the RDI per the ideas floating around last year. RDI Head Dmitriev said the RDI has invested in 50 projects with China so far. So the plumbing starts coming back. Project specific engagement alongside normalisation of US relations? Who knows. But Russia is the most sanctioned country on earth, so my bet is a revision in today's rapidly changing world situation will be in its favour.

Bessent announced review and scrubbing of US sanctions list, calling them outdated and obsolete, causing unintented consequences and creating pressure on financial institutions. This is an unprecedented reversal. The US sanctions complex has been built up for decades in pursuit of hegemony. There's plenty of reasons to call for urgency in the market, but a fundamental reshaping could quietly allow the administration to re-engage in economic deals with Russia.

Your reply tells me you weren't trying to engage in rational analysis, but got triggered and babbled. Despite believing you were making an "one-sided" post, apparently to mine, you helpfully did the opposite.

I'd simply reply the venture of Indian businesses overseas will be more sophisticated than a paragraph from a western financial pundit. To talk of it with certainty before the event is premature. Nonetheless, one comment about acquiring dollars not only misses the point about multipolarity, it assumes no other approach can be true simultaneously. Even then, think about the oil to product supply chain that increased following Feb 2022. Probably about 25-30% of the oil through Indian refineries is Russian origin, paid for increasingly in local currencies and yuan. That's exported to Europe, paid in euros and dollars. India has its own development needs, and a deepening partnership will create more opportunities for Russia to use accumulated INR and vice versa.

Indian businesses have traditionally not ventured abroad. Domestic investments are considered safe and in a high growth economy, logical. There national mining champions, with the focus on metals processing rather than extraction, such is the difficulty in permitting. The shift in the world order and reducing trust in western institutions is driving the trend. For example, India repatriated all its gold from the BoE. France even did the same recently from the NY Fed. One of the safest places to list for a Russian focused company and that the West is afraid to sanction is India imv.

Indian Steel Secretary announced Indian firms are interested in direct stakes in Russian mining firms. The same India that just said it'll carry on buying as much Russian oil as in its national interest, without naming the US specifically, regardless of other countries issuing sanctions waivers or not. Modi goes to Moscow later this year to deepen the Special and Privileged Partnership. India has got more outspoken on advancing multipolarity and rebuffing arrogant proclamations from the US over recent months. New Delhi just hosted a BRICS FM meeting. Expect some big announcements on advancing multipolarity including BRICS Development Bank on Putin's visit to Beijing also.

here's a view some market commentators are floating, putting all the comments and events together. putin's going to china immediately after trump. he's taken the a-z of ceos, suggesting the groundwork for deals already done. each party has security interests to resolve. zelensky's getting pummelled in the media as us applies pressure to agree deal even without security guarantees ahead of midterms. yermak gone resembling start of internal coup. lots of press on massive russian strikes evidencing absence of ukr air defence. potential for three great powers to agree mutual bargain on security and trade, including arctic. china and russia already working with saudi, qatar and ****stan on new security architecture in middle east. the europeans waking up very late and probably beyond help.

Lavrov interview. Says US wants to buy Nordstream share owned by European companies. Peskov stated many profitable projects for US and Russia investment possible if US delinks Ukraine settlement from economic co-operation. Meanwhile, reports US is piling on pressure on Zelensky to agree to whatever terms before midterms. Yermak is now in custody in what could be first signs of internal coup. US has options and has and can exit wars, restore trade, even as the proxy refuses.