Member Info for DShox

As before, those thinking the US won't cut a deal with Russia in its own interests and allow Zelensky to fight on, and collapse, aren't paying attention to history or recent events. The frontlines and the devastating missile and drone attacks don't paint a picture of stalemate. Reports now Ukraine has no nuclear power supply because the substations are destroyed. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast is in collapse as Zelensky throws everything to hold Donbass. Only two large fortified cities in Donetsk are completely in Ukrainian control and will eventually be encircled. Reports now NABU has 20 hours of audio directly implicating Zelensky in corruption. His under the table bribery accomplicies have all been targeted and charged. I'll repeat again Mearsheimer's warning to the Europeans about a year ago - "sooner or later, they'll find out the US is a ruthless Great Power."

Its a very clear goal of Moscow to remove the Zelensky regime and all traces of it from the Rada. If it really is a negotiation between the US and Russia, then both Moscow and Washington will want a President in Kiev that is compliant to both.

First meeting since Feb 22 and in Moscow, led by Swiss FM (OSCE Chairman) and Lavrov. Positive words exchanged. Wouldn't be happening without US approval. Moving the right direction.

It appears the US did not waste the trip to Abu Dhabi, which the US initially said would be Russia-Ukraine security working group only. Zelensky complained he didn't want to meet without US presence, so Trump sent Witkoff and Kushner. So they took opportunity to hold another bilateral economic working group meeting with Dmitriev, which i now note referred to as the Russian - American Economic Cooperation Group by Dmitriev. He describes further positive progress.

Trump dismissed Zelensky's claims the energy ceasefire was in effect until Friday, agreeing with Putin that it expired on Sunday. The trilateral meetings between Russia, Ukraine and US are set for today/tomorrow in Abu Dhabi. Its clear Zelensky doesn't want those going ahead but cannot risk upsetting Trump and the presence obliges his team to participate. Trump is turning up the pressure.

Dumbest post of the year - "Maybe you should leave if you aren't confident pal?"

Ok thanks. Slightly above my budget!

Be interesting to keep watching that or any other fund that it might use to front. Those blocks keep coming. I guess you have to pay for that terminal and live detailed updates...

We know from Russian readouts the US has already started presenting project ideas for joint investment in the Arctic. Obviously EUA is known to BlackRock - basically the US government. The 28 pt plan included staged lifting of sanctions and a joint US-Russia investment fund. We also know from Trump's first term, he was strong armed into continuing Obama era sanctions under pressure of Russiagate hoax and impeachment threats. He signed sanctions into effect but added language effectively disagreeing. Obama era sanctions scuppered the massive Exxon-Rosneft Arctic JV.

If the current management are unable to find, analyse and agree a transaction, they should leave and allow in those that are capable.

Obviously setting up to break higher this last couple of days. Large buys accommodated on the cheap.

Nice chunky trades today.

Yesterday in Florida, the US-Russia bilateral economic working group met. The meeting was described as productive and constructive by Witkoff and Dmitriev. However of particular note was attendance of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which was also picked up by Bloomberg. I maintain that as before (Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan) the US will exit on its own timetable even if the proxy insists on fighting. The trilateral security working group has different areas to negotiate, but the energy ceasefire could be a US-Russia blueprint to contain the conflict to the 4 regions and Ukraine, allowing US investments into Russia without risk of war damage. Finally, even the incredibly tough talking Medvedev has heaped praise on the progress made under this US administration, suggesting there's alot of progress we're not seeing.

Yeah thats ok cos in one of those 7 years it went over 40p and broke you. We're about due another one.

Waiting game now. The "strategy papers" that wanted war in Ukraine now calling not just for an exit, but a force redeployment away from Europe. Rubio again yesterday explaining to a grandma with 401ks in war companies that the US cannot be strong everywhere, and needs a minimum critical mass to certain regions to be effective.

Good stuff. We're far from 'when lambo' territory, not even 'when BYD,' but I'd hazard a guess the two leaders try to build on this limited ceasefire with extensions. They're smart enough to know they're undermining Zelensky by cutting him out and providing outcomes to ordinary people. Anyway, the Europeans have quietly fallen silently into line behind Trump. Notice just a few months ago they were agitating for US neocons to apply 500% tariffs against India and China for trading with Russia, and now they're turning up one by one begging for trade deals. If Starmer, Von der, Macron et al think their behaviour goes unnoticed, they're quite wrong.

Merz rules out Ukraine joining the EU until conditions met following a process of years, scuppering Zelensky's demands for 1st Jan 2027 entry. This removed his last bid to assure those in Kiev the money will soon begin to flow. The only deal he has is Trump's $800bn reconstruction document. Interestingly Merz referred to US led efforts in Abu Dhabi, indicating the EU has fallen into line. Further, Rubio stated contrary to Zelensky's claims, that there's no Security Guarantee document to sign. He also stated the next security track meeting will be between Russia and Ukraine only. The US has already then removed itself and will hold its own bilateral talks with the Russians - the same as all other proxy wars, the US will cut a deal on its own timetable according to its own interests.

Hopefully these are viewed as desperate acts by an unelected commission that's on its last legs. The EU imposed gas consumption cuts on industry in 2022/23 and replaced Russian gas to the extent it can. It cannot therefore, in any short or possibly medium term horizon, replace the balance with alternative supply. The question of cost is a valid one, but we're now in the realm of availability. Germany's now in its 5th year of deepening deindustrialisation and that crisis is deepening. I do believe its showing up in German new car prices too.

Nice. Yeah dealer said their best seller was the Seal (?) - quite a big car for less than 40k. Its a hybrid. Believe the Dolphin is the most expensive at high 40ks, with more sporty look and fully kitted out, but is all electric. There's a new model coming out to replace or add to the Seal, which the dealer didn't have full details or training on yet - slight style change and more kit are the main changes.

Thank you. Good stuff. I'll need to test drive at some point. There's the premium badge appeal on the German cars but if the technical gap closes, there's a point at which that becomes hard to justify at the counter.