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Oil sanctions lifting rather collapses the entire point of the sanctions war and opens the way for sector by sector deals and exemptions. Politically, it'll be a clarion call that won't be reversed and anything the UK has in place, rather pointless. Main issue appears to be exit taxes so if we start seeing economic co-op, an Arctic deal with special tax exemptions might follow.

I will keep this short and no point going into detail given the unpredictable situation. It was very clear the regime change objective expected immediately didn't occur. They tried in June 2025 and again in the violent riots of January. The US led the attack as Israel proved itself too weak last year. The confusion over the war goal, and even calling it a war, is because the US can't tell the public its already gone wrong. So now the plan b is intensify bombing, including over ten hospitals, schools and production infrastructure to collapse the country before munition shortages become obvious, as well as arming and mobilising Kurds, Al Qaeda and ISIS to try to destabilise Iran. The US now talks of a 100 day campaign, so timed to end before midterms. The political pressure on Trump may force his hand earlier but 100 days of curtailed gas and oil production and to movement of tankers places Europe in a catastrophic situation. Already EU gas storage is below 30%. Qatar is shutting LNG production. Chinese is restricting exports. The US might well ration its exports as prices rise domestically, especially ahead of elections. Russia is now threatening to effectively punish the EU by redirecting its gas to Asia before the EUs own "wise" ban enters in 2027. In short, Europe is the rabbit in the headlight and out of necessity, as global prices rise and supply shortages loom, someone, perhaps led by the Swiss, will need to mend bridges with Moscow.

Behind paywall in FT, but now EU wants to inspect Druzhba oil pipeline that Zelensky claims is war damaged. Looks like the Brusselian oligarchy has reached the end of the road for geopolitical stupidity.

Norwegian Energy Minister in the face of yet another increase in European gas prices, up 75% this week: "With ​the geopolitical situation we see now, I believe the debate will be ‌revived," ⁠Aasland said. Looks like the Brusselians will have to swallow their propaganda and open Nordstream 2 to allow competitive gas back to Europe. Then they will need to explain it wasn't "The Putin" stopping supplies and "using energy as a weapon."

True Zelensky doesn't want a diplomatic resolution. The war keeps him in power and the money flowing, buys him time. His refusal to make concessions and insist on a 3-way leaders meeting aims to get the US to drop the Geneva / Abu Dhabi working group process. The PR of Zelensky alongside Trump and Putin, he'd see as boosting his legitimacy. However the Trump team knows all this and insists Zelensky continues with US "mediated" negotiations.

There is an argument to state RFU collects its own hence the discrepancy. But then these same folk print that its a stalemate and AFU is undertaking a great offensive in Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk. There's always the obligatory "massive losses" trope in corporate media, which rely entirely on Zelensky's PR team, but that doesn't add up to reality when you see the desperate tactics Kiev uses to mobilise and the quality of its recruits captured, often emancipated due to lack of supplies, refused requests to withdraw and some in their 60s. Most fire action is at long range via drones, artillery, missiles and bombs rather than by large troop movements, and its the Russians that are far outproducing the collective west and Ukraine in this regard. Again, last check of Mediazona has Russian losses around 160k.

Reported across western media: US State Department warned Zelensky not to strike targets in Russia that affect US economic interests, following an attack on a Black Sea oil port impacting American investments.

The security guarantee is conditional on the fighting ending and so to any US investment. That's of course obvious. Both the US and Russians agree that Zelensky's ultranationalist regime needs to get out of the 20% of Donetsk Oblast it still holds for this to happen. Territory that will be lost despite corporate media spin, which still prints fantastic articles that Pokrovsk hasn't yet been captured by RFU. You'll note no US attendance in Kiev yesterday. An empty-handed gaggle of Europeans did show up with no €90bn loan and no positive EU accession vote. The only real change for Ukraine is the loss of diesel and emergency electricity from Hungary and Slovakia. Zelensky's regime is now in pre-coup territory. Zaluzhny appears to be out stirring from Britain but he's hardly an acceptable replacement to Moscow. That said, he wrote a piece early in the war that suggested he'd not throw men into a lost war. Budanov, who Zelensky also tried to oust - now his unwelcome Chief of Staff - is also a hardcore nationalist turned realist in 2024, also favours an early negotiated solution. Indeed Zelensky's gaslight of pursuing another 3 years of war went down like a lead balloon among is cabinet. There are rumours RFU is planning a large offensive in Spring - an actual offensive rather than those made up by corporate media - that could explain the slow frontlines in this last month. There have been a string of villages taken around Sumy that appears to indicate preparation. I'm sure the Trump administration understands the full picture from the negotiations. The drain on US resources and weapons, and the unlimited demands of Zelensky, has left the US military overstretched and unable to strike Iran for a short, decisive "win." This is providing Iran with valuable additional preparation time to deter any such attack at the behest of Israel.

On this 20th sanctions package, I expect "it" to pass because the EU Commission will again break and bend its own laws to do so by secret committee, passing it as an economic measure rather than as sanctions. In other words, ignore the votes of member states. Given the EU is only a collection of treaties and law, doing so will further hole the EU itself. I understand the 20th package intended to drop the failed oil price cap but instead sought to bar EU services to ships carrying Russian oil. Positively, Japan is trying to repair relations with Russia and is a huge importer of Russian LNG. Well, so to is the EU, importing record amounts from Russia in January. Also worth noting Hungary and Slovakia could never have resisted EU pressure to wreck their economies for Zelensky under the Biden regime, so let's see if these latest attempts to sabotage their economies and undermine Orban ahead of elections will motivate a response from the US.

This is true mizman, a rather bizarre article in the FT about the price of cucumbers. The writers being unaware of UK unemployment hitting 5.2% or Sir Jim's (INEOS) post stating that since 2024, over 1000 manufacturing sites closed in Europe and loss of 20% of its chemical industry. Russian real wages rose strongly over the last 4 years despite a relative slow down. Interest rates were cut 1% to 15% as inflation is deemed under control. Debt to GDP is still around 15%, a figure the warmongering pro Zelensky / Europeans dream of, and war spending only 6% of GDP despite "war economy" claims. Oil export receipts as percentage of GDP are slowly being being revised down in corporate media, to catch up with reality i notice. Yes, there's a few diehard Zelensky fans that don't mind thousands dying in the hope their predictions will one day miraculously come true, but those voices are gradually, thankfully losing their grip on the narrative.

RDI Head Dmitriev corrected The Economist for fake news. Instead of $12tr, he said the real number was $14tr, and that the basis of the preliminary agreement is because US businesses lost $300bn+ for anti Russia sanctions and they want the benefit of $14tr of economic co-operation. A nuanced but important difference to The Economist framing "Moscow offered $12tr of deals in exchange for lifting sanctions."

Yes yes, on the brink of collapse, running out of missiles, washing machine chips, advancing with shivels etc. 'Don't forget,' same warmongering narrative every day since Feb 22.

There's a split in Ukrainian negotiator positions. The "surprise" additional meeting that Medinsky headed to was in fact a concurrent meeting with the political faction of the Ukrainian delegation headed by Umerov. The other meeting was between Russian military intelligence and former head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Budanov. A realist, Budanov is in favour of a deal now according to his past comments warning of Ukraine's collapse and reports in the Economist. Medinsky is of course keen for another round of talks in the near future.

The Economist reports preliminary agreement between US and Russia on a $12tr economic co-operation agreement with sanctions lifting for large scale investments in the field of fossil fuels, critical minerals and infrastructure. This confirms the presence of the so-called and leaked "Dmitriev plan" that emerged in mid-Feb.

Interesting

Zelensky has denied those FT reports, likely planted by the US. Positive in the sense the US is amping up the pressure to oust him but if there are elections, Zelensky and the Europeans will make sure he wins regardless. The good news is Macron repeating the need for Europe to re-engage in diplomacy, claiming the technical means are now there. Well the technical means were never closed. In the meantime, the frontlines continue to collapse with new RFU advances into Lyman, Sumy region and elsewhere despite the Kiev regime's mass forced mobilisation.

Nice

Feigning empathy for war losses while promoting it doesn't convince anyone. Mediazona, which is part funded by the BBC, has Russian losses at 160k. Now compare that to Ukraine that underwent total mobilisation and has for years now been violently force mobilising men off the streets and from their homes and yet are still complaining of manpower shortages. Engaging that grey matter, with the equipment, airpower, missile and manpower gap increasingly in Russia's favour, does it make sense that its the AFU suffering the lower loss ratio? In Russian legal terms, its still an SMO, which limits what the state can do in terms of mobilisation and use of industry for war production. Corporate media war economy tropes are never backed up - the official number is 6% of GDP, which is less than what the US directed toward its MIC in Vietnam and Korea. Nobody called that a war economy. Zelensky's running out of money, friends and time. NABU says it has 20 hours of audio directly linking Zelensky to corruption, having already taken out his under-the-table bribery associates. He's also named in the Epstein files linked to human trafficking alongside some of the most depraved characters associated with the entire sordid situation. If Rep Massie is successful in forcing further file releases and unredaction of names as he's threatened Pam Bondi with, then Zelensky's finished.

Lorenzo, everything is "reported" because nobody is there. Certainly nobody frequently commenting on this board including yourself. Now, what you need to ask yourself Lorenzo is this: Does - post engaging your own matter - make sense? You may like to believe otherwise, but those reports do exist and chime with the images, complaints and video on the ground of blacked out and freezing cities. I will leave you with this - DYOR.

Other point is US and Russian militaries resumed contacts in Abu Dhabi, overturning a stupid move by the Biden regime.