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Lavrov interview. Says US wants to buy Nordstream share owned by European companies. Peskov stated many profitable projects for US and Russia investment possible if US delinks Ukraine settlement from economic co-operation. Meanwhile, reports US is piling on pressure on Zelensky to agree to whatever terms before midterms. Yermak is now in custody in what could be first signs of internal coup. US has options and has and can exit wars, restore trade, even as the proxy refuses.

TRUMP: "Ukraine war will be over in 2 weeks."

Putin and Trump are going to China this month. There's a peppering in the media with questions from US press and statements from Peskov, that can't rule out Trump going to Moscow.

Putin holds Trump to the agreement made in Anchorage for which the Russian side say the US hasn't implemented, requiring Zelensky to withdraw from Donbass (what's left of Donetsk Obl). Both sides know he'll never agree it. So the timing of these calls and the charges brought against Zelensky's very closest aide, Andriy Yermak (well understood to be his local handler) yesterday, reveal the first signs of an internal coup. Kremlin officials recently made statements Zelensky has embedded himself too deeply in Ukrainian institutions to be removed by elections or popular uprising. The presence of armed guards around Yermak outside government buildings certainly increases pressure. The US is probably still behind NABU/SAP despite "closing" USAID funding. Its just not public anymore.

Budanov is the CIAs man in Kiev. An unwelcome Chief of Staff for Zelensky, planted there by Washington in place of Zelensky's local handler and fixer, Yermak, who was yesterday charged by NABU. All Zelensky's closest bagmen now charged.

KREMLIN ON PUTIN REMARKS THAT THE UKRAINE WAR IS ‘COMING TO AN END’: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PEACE PROCESS MEAN THE COMPLETION IS NEARING

Nice

Reports Putin and Xi will conclude a major trade deal this month when he visits Beijing. In 2022-3, both sides were weary of large deep economic cooperation. Banks and businesses were cautious of being caught by secondary sanctions if they wanted to access dollars, including handling sale proceeds vis a vis EUA for example. 2026 is different. China applied blocking orders for the first time directing small refineries to ignore US sanctions. Yes, EUA can wait to see if US opportunities open up - and the Trump administration will be aware of a pending China-Russia deal - but potentially the most certain route is to align with China and Sinosteel. The US might be prompted to increase engagement with Moscow. The prospect of massive new energy cooperation undermines it's attempts to pull Moscow away from Beijing and its attempts to cutoff oil supplies from Iran. The Europeans might even pick themselves up from the floor. Once that energy is committed east, they'll be left with scraps.

Finland's Stubb says the time has come for the EU to independently begin negotiations direct with Russia. I appreciate this triggers some readers.

Slovak PM Fico states he was at a meeting yesterday - not sure whether he's referring to his trip to Armenia or Moscow - where he was told US has massive interest in buying European transit infrastructure to control price of oil and gas from Russia to Europe. He stated the plan is to buy Russian oil and gas at standard rates and then mark up for the EU. This fits with a Trump associate courting the Nordstream pipelines for over a year. Meanwhile, the Brusselians are becoming increasingly nervous with the highly talented Kaja Kallas stating before the EU talks to Russia, it needs to work out what to say.

The politics in Europe is changing. Nationalist parties are rising and being backed by big money and forces that previously propped up the rightwing neoliberals. In Germany, the pressure on Merz grows and likelihood of CSU walking out to collapse his coalition increases. The final straw might be the energy crunch about to hit Europe. Unfortunately the Israel lobbies are also aligning behind nationalist parties across Europe. AfD is polling as high as 40%+ in some areas and committed to restoring Russian relations. In France, Macron is in his final months. Zelensky himself is out of options - the entire premise of "euromaidan," of joining the EU and NATO gone. He's now being criticised in mainstream media and domestically for corruption and his claims Europe "owes" him. He's partly got a point. He sacrificed Ukraine on promises made but the shock and awe Kremlin "regime change" gamble came up short.

So it appears there has been negotiation. Not mega phone diplomacy. What final agreement is Putin referring to, to be signed in a third country. Witkoff and Kushner, the odd negotiators but nonetheless influential in Trump's decisions.

There's an energy shortage ....storm here. It'll start becoming obvious next month and if the Gulf doesn't resolve, Autumn will be crisis. Food will start thinning out in supermarkets. The political media class is keeping everyone in the dark imv. The US is a nett exporter of oil but is not self sufficient. It needs to import heavy crude. It too is running down stocks and Trump's team aren't coming clean either. Putin has today ready to receive the EU if they call. The Council President is announced he's working on a delegation. Something will give.

I find it interesting the US is surging imports from Russia, now accounting for 35% of its nitrogen fertiliser imports, and doing so in full knowledge Russia's exempt from tariffs of the kind smacked on the EU and Britain, handing it a competitive advantage. Trump is going to Beijing next week. Putin goes around the same time. Both are supporting Iran but on the premise of diplomatic resolution, and Trumpster needs an off ramp. Declare victory among concessions and go home.

The US snookered itself in Iran. Latest MoU in Axios, an outlet very close to US/Israel insiders, shows US watering down demands and having to make concessions it wouldn't have done prior to its February attack. Those concessions include lifting sanctions that've been in place for decades. In other words, a "middle power" like Iran emerging stronger than before a US military campaign. China has for the first time applied blocking orders in 5 small Chinese refineries to ignore US sanctions on Iranian oil. Expect that to expand to others. Once the US is forced to alleviate sanctions on Iran and China/Russia shrugging them off, some predict the entire sanctions complex built up over the 40 years to start unfolding.

Politico mocking Merz on its frontpage indicates the deepstate is ready to oust the war gofer. Watch for the CSU walking out. Merz immediately broke his election promise to borrow responsibly. Now he's cut social security to pump €20bn into Ukraine. The big cheques end with him. Germany dominates the European Parliament via the EPP. Government collapse probably sees AfD in, with aim to restore Russia relations.

The key government to watch, or one of, is the CDU/CSU coalition. Most Germans now expect it to collapse. For the CDU to be at 26% and falling has panicked the establishment. And this is before a fresh energy shock hits Europe from the Iran conflict. Any new government will necessarily see AfD take power, which is polling near levels that could win federal elections, as lead or coalition partner. The talk now is "the AfD isn't so bad afterall." Of course, AfD is outspoken on Project Ukraine and wants better relations with Russia. A change in German policy changes EU policy.

Bought into large tungsten project in Kazakhstan following signing of MoU some months ago. The US oligarchy buying into tier 1 commodity projects.

Trying to monitor central bank gold purchases and sales is a fools errand. None of them are declaring accurately. All of them are buying. The World Gold Council estimates underdeclarations by as much as two thirds. This is because the dollar is no longer trusted, nor the US any ability to repay its debts.

The EC knows the "war bond" will be paid by EU taxpayers because it's to pay "when Russia pays reparations." Hungary didn't veto but did opt out of liability. The collateral against which the EC wants to secure against is a) a third party's sovereign reserves and b) subject to an international arbitration claim in the EU's General Court (specifically in respect of indefinite immobilisation). So a war bond that'll never pay to investors, where investors know from Euroclear's own statements, is "secured" illegally against third party assets, and assets under international arbitration. Investors might prefer their chances in Private Credit!

JUST IN: President Putin and President Trump held a constructive phone call, also discussing potential US-Russia economic and energy cooperation. 🕊️

Above post from RDI Head Dmitriev.

One point to make. The US now talks about Project Ukraine as Europe's war. No longer gives Ukraine cash and sells weapons to NATO. It's done what it said it'd do in Munich in 2025, essentially dumped the problem on its vassals. Despite the hubris, Europe can't fund the war. Where's the €90bn loan coming from? The Commission needs to float it on international markets and find investors no? UK bond yields are running up to 6%. Merz is facing obliteration in September elections. He's also just insulted Trump saying Iran humiliated the US. Even Estonia is admitting a mistake has been made with Russia policy. So let's see.

The Russians know, noting various statements, that European politicians are a lost cause. There's common ground with the US in the security sphere over Europe - Moscow views US involvement in Europe as a key security stabiliser: the so-called Great American Pacifier, because the Europeans left alone are incapable of living side by side at peace. Also, the US doesn't want to see Germany militarise, noting early statements around NATOs purpose. Merz's remilitarisation and war talk is also deeply unpopular domestically. Changes are coming.