Member Info for DropD

haha, ditto

Older&Wiser - my model allows for ~$96 / ton payments to MHW (contract to deliver 40k tons washed met coal per month throughout 2022), a few $ / ton for use of infrastructure (I think that was the clever deal negotiated, rather than buying it outright), offtake agreement at discount to spot price - I believe it was around $260-270 / ton when spot was $300. That leaves around $60 / ton contribution to SG&A and taxes, which I think is generous, to give ~$100 / ton profit. So conservative throughout and still gives huge profit, cash and upside from where BEN is now, let alone when capacity increases. Hope you're invested! GLA

board and senior mgt of BEN are shown here on their website: https://benscreek.com/board-and-management.html

sienna - agree, I'm pretty sure he isn't a director, but he's sure as hell v confident in BEN! He had over 17m in December (RNS 7/12) and has clearly continued to add substantially. Well done him - he's gonna be very wealthy by end of 2022!

This re p/e is interesting, shared from 'the other place' https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html

ave p/e 12.53 for coal (Jan22 figs). If we apply that to BEN's initial target production of 40k tons per month, with profit per ton conservatively $100, 350m shares, target sp comes out at £1.29.

$100 per ton profit was a conservative fig used before xmas. met coal price has risen since then, and any increase achieved adds straight to bottom line profit and should feed through to sp, pushing it closer to £1.60 at current prices.

Last week's RNS adds purchase of 2nd HWM, hopefully up and running in spring, doubling production, and all of above figures.

That's without anything else e.g. royalty deals with neighbours, acquisitions of neighbours with infrastructure ('BEN2', 'BEN3') etc ..

Obviously we need to be in stable, regular production at target rates, with infrastructure established and working optimally, and payments-in flowing, for re-rate towards above. I have full confidence that AW will deliver this - he hasn't put a foot wrong so far on this rapid journey.

Exciting weeks and months ahead. GLA

still strengthening: https://www.argusmedia.com/metals-platform/price/assessment/PA00128862100

I don't know where LSE get the spread they quote - currently they're showing 38/41 which they say is -2.47%. I know for a fact sells this morning are at 40.42, buys at 40.85.

... of course, that's in addition to the massive pent-up demand for steel worldwide as we all emerge from covid restrictions, and specifically in the US arising from their approved $1trn + infrastructure programme ...

O&W - thanks for sharing. Mainly about coal as an energy source though, whereas I hope and expect that BEN's strong focus will remain on coking coal for steel production. I saw this schematic the other day (thanks to someone who shared it in 'the other place') which demonstrates in another way how BEN is 'in the right place at the right time' to support the steel production which is essential for the transition to low-carbon economies ... https://ibb.co/J7bG16b

Also noted the 400k sell which went through late in the day today. Probably (hopefully) last of Clear Capital off-load - they need the cash for the work they've done, so understandable. Highly encouraging that the large sell was well managed, plenty of demand and sp closed above the key 40p level. Bodes very well ... GLA

1 x HWM contracted to deliver 44k tons washed met coal per month = 528k tons pa
est profit / ton = $100 (that was when met coal price around $300/ton, now $335) but lets stay very conservative = $52.8m = £39.6m pa

add 2nd HWM - double above (actually better than that with economies of scale, but stay conservative)= £79.2m pa

that's before any further expansion, royalty work for neighbours, buy-outs of neighbours, creation of BEN2, BEN3 etc etc

with very conservative p/e of 5 (likely higher - low risk, no debt, good markets, high demand, good jurisdiction, extremely well led etc), with 352m shares, gives sp of £1.12

CEO is committed to return cash to shareholders via dividends. Say (conservatively again!) £35m returned in year 1 = 10p / share. At current sp that's a 25% cash bonus on top of any further capital growth. And that or potentially more could be payable year after year ...

See why I think we're only at the beginning ... and why I think sp must move quickly towards (and beyond) the higher figure above?! GLA

haggis - as you say, it's much more cost-effective to own it in medium term (= more £s back to shareholders), and a sign of extremely high confidence in what is to come i.e. the quality and size of resource, efficiency of the other infrastructure, likely number of years operating etc etc. Couldn't have a better indication of where this is going ....

Another very good day today for BEN, and remember it's still early days on this journey. Informed investors looking for £1+ in coming months PLUS potentially substantial cash dividend(s) this year. Strong newsflow anticipated over the short term. Very exciting times. GLA

I just love the fact the AW does what he says he's going to do, usually ahead of time. He really is totally on top of this and that gives me huge confidence for short, medium and long term. Brilliant. GLA

coggy et al - stop pls, lets keep this board to the great opportunity which is BEN. Fantastic progress already but so much more to come in short, medium and long terms. I would guess AW interview coming this week with likely more progress to discuss.

My view - BEN will be this year's 'share of the year'.

not sure he's anti ORPH, but he's definitely anti CF - relentlessly, pathologically. He's having a go (again) on POLB too. what a sad existence.

excellent contract, RNS and CF interview.

all looking v good for the autumn.

thanks for the namecheck earache. am confident in my investment in ORPH and don't feel the need to post all day every day to try and influence others.

I know I shouldn't get sucked in but here goes ...

earache - so, your money's in play is it? so despite all you say, at this moment you presumably believe that ORPH is the best place, bar none, for your money. If there was any other place / investment for it that you thought was more likely to achieve your objectives you'd move it wouldn't you?

Any thoughts on "... for professional use..."?