Member Info for DropD

I don't usually do this sort of thing, but things are looking so good with BEN that I can't resist sharing my predictions (they are based on calculations using realistic numbers, but just want the headlines here). I think the sp will be around £2.50 by the autumn (assumes production ramp-up beyond the initial 22k pm towards 70k and met coal price maintained). I also think AW will announce initial dividend of at least 10p per share payable well before Christmas.

All obv IMHO. GLA

I'm sure AW is doing it because it offers additional substantial benefit to shareholders ..

Completion of the wash plant and making it 'fully operational' is such a major milestone for BEN. We move into a new phase of processing virtually as much ore as can be mined and converting it to clean product (from memory wash plant target capacity was 350 tons per hour). This opens the door to the huge sales and profits which we've been discussing on here for a while. It goes from being theoretical / plans / aims to actual reality. Absolutely fantastic.

I am confident we'll hear soon about the rail spur. You can't ship these quantities of clean met coal by road for long.

What great progress. Well done AW and team.

O&w - did you listen all the way through? Also said if Adam's 1m tons pa target hit then sp could exceed £3 i.e 4 bags from current sp - and that's before any further expansion (and using p/e of 6, ie half industry average). Mentioned lots of newsflow due ...

If AW tells us over the weekend that wash plant is optimised and now producing met coal for shipping, that in itself should be enough to get us to £1+. If work on rail is close to completion or better, that should push it much higher still. If 2nd high wall miner is in and running, add more still ... Next week could be tremendously exciting and a milestone in BEN's development. GLA

tenantry - before market opens on monday is fine

with met coal price at $450/ton its possible BEN is making at least $200/ton profit. If that holds and we reach and maintain 70k tons production + sales per month, with 350m shares, p/e of 10 (still below sector ave of 12) that's sp of £3.60.

In that sales scenario there would also be scope for substantial dividend payments too - I suspect in excess of the initial 10p/share this year that we think AW is aiming for.

lglg - esp with AW interview over the weekend

The profitability projections are heavily weighted by what p/e you use. In jan22 coal sector as a whole, internationally, had average p/e of 12. That includes all those many companies which are not profitable, have high debt, work in 'dodgy' jurisdictions etc, and i think includes the now very unattractive thermal coal.

BEN is in a much stronger position than these - efficient, highly profitable, no debt, strong likelihood of early dividends, good jurisdiction, strong markets, excellent management, good resource etc etc. It is also focused on met coal, which is in massive demand, constrained supply and rising price.

So you can easily make the case that a p/e well above average could apply. That potentially significantly increases the profit and hence sp in all calcs I've seen to date (including my own) which have all used p/e below average.

I'm not suggesting that will happen overnight. But when production and sales in line with the 70k tons per month target are being consistently achieved (or exceeded) and as dividends become ever more likely, then it would be reasonable to anticipate an sp moving to levels above those calculated to date, which reflects the higher p/e of an upper quartile producer.

When 70k tons pm production / sales target is achieved there will be upward presure on BEN sp to exceed 3x current (current met coal prices, p/e 10 - still below sector ave). Thats before any further expansion, and excluding divs later in the year. Thats why Im not looking anywhere else.

Stick to met coal ... and BEN. you know it makes sense!

haggis - not sure why you would bother to put that on here. they could be anyone, with any kind of motive. Apparently Zak Mir (who I'm not particularly keen on, but at least is transparent in his method, we know who he is, have his track record available etc) suggested re-trace to around 62/63 then recovery back to 90+

looks like some may be forgetting about the fundamentals here. With met coal now at $430/ton, allowing for all costs and any discount given for initial offtake agreement, I reckon we should be making in excess of $150/ton clear profit (probably closer to $200). At $150, with target production of 70k tons per month, p/e of 10 (below sector average) gives an sp of £2.70. If progress towards plan is being maintained this could be achieved by the summer. (If profit is at the higher level that increases sp by another 30%+). Then there's all the other possibilities to add e.g. lease / royalty deals, acquisition with infrastructure (for early production), another hwm, dividends ...

So I'm seeing today's sp as a short term pull-back and consolidation after the meteoric rise to date, in preparation for next significant steps up. Looking forward to comms / update from the company in coming days. GLA

Lucky fella. Wish I had cash to buy at under 70p. Won't be here long.

Haggis - in my view there can only be so much anticipation of big profits from the higher met coal prices. That anticipation has driven the sp this far (and may take us up again to the 80s given the further increases over recent days). But I think the factors which are going to make a significant step change in sp going forward now are (i) confirmation of production increasing towards the target levels and (ii) confirmation of deliveries, income and profit achieved. When we start getting this info I genuinely think the sp will go ballistic! GLA

Could be a great week ahead with met coal at unbelievable all time high price and news imminent on wash plant optimisation, progress on rail spur, commissioning 2nd high wall miner, production / transportation / sales, and whatever AW raised $6m for recently. Sp could reach multiples of current level over coming weeks / months .... and the there's dividends to look forward to for afters. Wow! GLA!

Follow up to recent sums: AW aiming for BEN to be $1bn+ company. With 350m shares that's sp of $2.88. At p/e of 8 (industry average is 12 so this is conservative, confidence given high cash and profit generation, no debt, good jurisdiction, market conditions, good reserves, growth potential, likely early dividends etc) implied profit of $125m pa. At profit of $150 / ton that's 833k tons production per annum, or just under 70k tons per month = AW target production with 2 hwms running + wash plant optimised + rail work complete.

Since my previous calcs there's small increase in # shares, met coal price has continued to rise giving increased confidence in profit fig, another week into wash plant optimisation, another week closer to 2nd hwm commissioned and operational.

That sp is about £2.14, i.e. 3x current. Every reason to believe that is achievable in coming months as production ramp up and sales are reported. Then there's the added prospect of whatever AW has lined up with the recent $6m CLN raise, and with huge cash generation the likelihood of dividends later in the year

IMHO yesterday's small pullback gives good opportunity to get in and stay in before the next leg up, which could happen any time. GLA!

rowley - I agree with you, but I'm feeling generous this morning so: the IPO document states 'Project has estimated
coal resources of 17.2 million in-place tons'. AW has said that they will undertake a drilling programme with a view to further prove-up and expand this resource. In addition since IPO they have taken a lease on adjacent 1200 acres, which has historic resource and which again BEN will drill to prove-up, expand and report. Plenty to keep us going for many years. And that's without any more deals - agreeing additional deals either on a lease / royalty basis or purchase, potentially with additional infrastructure in place, is part of the core strategy.

looks like strong buying again this morning - 82.75p just paid. Perhaps the effect of the upwards pressure on met coal price? Or knowing that AW has at least $6m burning a hole in his pocket which he is going to do 'something' with very soon. Or some of the many other drivers? Any way, looking great. (And as per previous modelling, still potentially a long way to go.) GLA