Member Info for DropD

thanks Shai - I agree, any whiff of a buy-out will absolutely launch the sp to much much greater heights. I was talking about an sp based on current actual performance only, and how I would expect that to ramp up as production ramps up over coming weeks.

I hate (love!) to think what sort of prices might entice the our major holders to agree to a buy-out. I guess it would have to be based on performance, profit, sector / competitor p/e, potential for dividends etc.. e.g. at 70k tons pm production, $200 / ton profit, sector ave p/e of 12 gives a market cap of just over $2bn, sp $5.76 or £4.32

I know we're holders so are optimistic here, but I think we all believe that once that level of production is achieved, then significantly more is possible just with the resources we've currently got using the 2 hwms running double shifts. You could then consider any further expansion, which could be very significant if AW secures a 'BEN2' for example. You could say p/e above average should be allowed for - BEN has everything going for it - jurisdiction, market, demand, expertise, no debt, extremely high profitability etc etc. And all of this will enable high dividend payouts for years to come, which would have to be compensated for in a buy-out. In my view all of this potential should be allowed for in buy-out price in addition to actual performance. So i would say something significantly higher than the £3-£4 you mention would be a reasonable and realistic expectation.

For now just holding very firm and looking forward to the next updates from AW which could come any time and could be very significant for the company and investors. GLA!

I'm hoping that this steady flow of excellent RNSs will culminate soon in FDA approval. Surely the time is approaching where their continuing silence is recognised as consigning certain cancer sufferers now to inferior treatment or rather treatment which could be improved upon. That's not a sustainable position.

BigK - not sure I agree with that - I think £3 at this stage of development and performance would be too high. Sp reflects market cap which in turn links to profitability, # shares and sector / competitor p/e's (as well as company potential and sentiment). Since IPO BEN has been doing all the preparatory work and is about to make step change to seriously profitable production, so I think sp currently approaching £1 reasonably reflects the tremendous progress to date and expected profitability of early production. As this ramps up and BEN production increases towards target of 70k tons pm (over coming weeks, possibly by early summer) I would expect sp to be steadily moving towards your £3.

And this is excellent as it's real and sustainable - underpinned by real production, sales, cash and profit (unlike so many other AIM miners who are either hoping for production at some unspecified time in the future, or are debt laden or issuing shares and diluting holders to fund operations.)

And it also means people can buy at current levels with a very realistic expectation of good gains in sp over coming weeks and months, as well as the anticipation of dividends, potentially before Christmas. (Of course with rising sp the sooner people buy-in the better the dividend returns will be - this year and in future years - as % of their investment.)

All obv IMHO! Exciting journey to be on! GLA

surprised people are being tempted to sell a few - but then people have all sorts of reasons and strategies ... Not a problem at all here, gives anyone fortunate to have a bit of cash a nice top-up opportunity. No change to immensely strong fundamentals. Met coal price being maintained which means we'll be making at least $200 profit per ton. With each passing day we're closer to news on final sign-off of rail, 2nd high wall miner into operation, then ramped-up production, deliveries, profit. In a few months (possibly weeks) current share price will be dwarfed. Best company and share on AIM (IMHO)! GLA

DtD - S. Africa, thermal, no comms ... I don't think so ... Especially now as BEN is about to enter the most exciting period in its (short) history.

sooner I think. Work's finished, the 2 main inspections have been completed and just waiting for final sign-off.

I think AW said he has at least 2 rail delivery slots booked in April. My understanding is that each train (delivery) has at least 100 cars and each car can carry 100 tons of clean met coal. So that's at least 20k tons already scheduled for rail delivery in April. We know intention is to deliver at least the min 22k contract to Integrity in April and my money is on us delivering a lot more than that.

Current actual bid/ask (HL) 93.8/94.85

I like to start the week in a positive frame of mind – not difficult being a BEN investor - and here’s my thinking this morning.

MHW initial contract mining agreement ‘allows for a minimum production capability of 40,000 tons of metallurgical coal per month’. With infrastructure in place that will surely be an early aim (they are probably on a bonus when achieving). At (now conservative!) $200/ton profit, with p/e of 8 (still 1/3 below sector average – very conservative given BEN has everything going for it), that would justify sp of £1.65. It would also provide £6m per month of cash towards dividend payments.

Figures should significantly improve further from there with higher production (2 x hwms, double shifts), and better p/e (in my view, with higher production, sales, cash and profit levels being consistently achieved and with commitment to dividends it should be at least 1/3 above ave i.e. 16), sp of 2 or 3 times above can easily be justified i.e. more than 4x current.

And that’s before any further expansion through royalty deals, acquisitions etc. So IMHO still a long way to go for BEN, but I think we’ll be travelling along that journey very quickly. GLA

Getting close to the business end of things now. Final arrangements being put in place to produce and deliver the first full monthly 22k tons of met coal to Integrity in April. Remember that production figure was based on 1 high wall miner working 1 shift. AW said going to 2 shifts and looking forward to update on 2nd hwm - expected on site, assembled and operational before end March.

My money's on hugely exceeding 22k tons in April - AW said he wants to take advantage of the high met coal price asap. He's also got the stockpile to run through the now optimised wash plant .. Dont forget MHW initial contract (1 hwm) is to produce 40k tons pm.

Plans will also be unlocked with final sign off of rail spur (it's passed the 2 major inspections, so just a necessary formality). Could get that news any time now.

And could this be the week we hear about more offtake agreements, lease / acquisition deal(s) ...?

1 thing we all know ... it's NOT going to be dull! GLA

looks like a buy to me if it was at 95.50 and range at the time was 94/96. shows huge confidence and reflects many people's expectation that there's a long way upwards for BEN to go yet.

nice way to end another great week, including superb AW interview (best yet?). looking forward to more next week - could have final sign off of the rail works (already cleared the 2 main inspections), maybe something on acquisition, perhaps more on offtake(s) ....

have a good weekend. GLA

veto - don't know where you've been for the last few months, or why you've suddenly decided to contribute now. Not going to spend too much time responding ... if you've missed out, bad luck (still time - it's going way higher than current). If you don't want to invest in BEN no-one is making you. However, amongst the reasons I am very confident, and in response to some of the points you make:

- the Project (as defined at IPO) has estimated coal resources of 17.2 million in-place tons and proven and probable recoverable coal reserves of 2.34 million tons. Reserves will be added from the 17.2m with further drilling
- in addition the strategy is to add to BEN resources by securing arrangements with neighbours, both lease / royalty deals and acquisitions. One lease deal in the bag already - large contiguous area with substantial historic measured resource which AW is very confident about. Strong indications that there will be progress in the near future with others.
- Integrity has said they will take everything BEN can produce. The company has also been approached by several other companies wanting to take product
- Integrity ships all over the world - not just servicing the US market ... though the US market is buoyant and the infrastructure bill will increase demand for steel however it is produced
- met coal price at all time high - was rising before Ukraine - reflecting systemic, growing demand/supply imbalance
- with production at 70k tons pm and current met coal prices BEN will be hugely profitable and cash generative, will be in a position to pay dividends this year and regularly in future years, and even if only valued at sector average p/e sp will be over 4x current level

Good luck if you choose to get in now and hold. I'm sure you'll be well rewarded.

Haggis - I know what you mean and I agree there may be some profit taking - can't really blame people. BUT I think we're in the very unusual position here that despite the good gains to date (arguably because the IPO price was set very low) there is widespread confidence that there is far more to come, both in the market cap (reflected in sp) and possible dividends for christmas! This may dampen any selling, but we may see a brief pause around the psychological £1 level for healthy consolidation before next significant strides forward. For every sell there's a buy and people buying at current levels will be holding for good returns too. (Having said all that there's no sign at all yet that the interest and pace of buying is slowing. In fact sp seems desperate to get to £1!) GLA

sonny - me too, but it hasn't quite kept up with Platts, and I think Platts is the official market index which our selling price is based on.

ice - its a pdf posted in the telegram group so can't upload here, apols.

Platts showing met coal up again:
HVA up $10 to $525
HVB up $10 to $465

Haggis - good question, I don't know. At a guess I would say it wouldn't matter - a buyer would buy all the issued shares at the agreed price from all holders, irrespective of whether they are locked in or not. But that is a guess!

Amin - I think MBU Capital would have to be persuaded as I think they hold nearly 60% of the shares. I'm sure they, like us PIs, would be looking for a price which covered both what the anticipated market cap will be in, say, 2 or 3 years (by when there will be an extended track record of high and highly profitable production, plus anticipated expansion), and would also have to reimburse shareholders for anticipated dividends in future years. Could be a very big bill ... but some organisations in this sector have very deep pockets!

I think you're right that investors big and small are likely to be looking at BEN as a very rewarding investment for many years to come.

Some further thoughts post AW's interview. He took time to stress the difference between BEN and almost all other AIM companies. Most are exploring, developing, hoping … and if they are lucky and get over all the hurdles ahead they may at some time in the future get to a point where they can generate income and profit. BEN IS THERE NOW.

With final sign off of the rail link due any time, wash plant fully operational, 1st high wall miner running and adding daily to the stockpile of raw material built over last 3 months, BEN will deliver the 1st monthly 22k of washed met coal to Integrity in April. At estimated $200 profit per ton (even this is conservative now) that’ll be $4.4m of profit in April = £3.3m.

The initial 22k per month was predicated on 1 x hwm running single shift. AW stressed that he’s looking to increase production as quickly as possible to take advantage of the high met coal prices. He now intends to ramp up production by starting 2nd shift straight away for 1st hwm, bringing 2nd hwm into operation (it’ll be on site for assembly and commissioning this month) and ramping that up to 2 shifts too. This potentially QUADRUPLES production and AW indicated he’s looking to do this over 3-4 months (my money is on him getting there quicker than that).

So the target of 70k tons per month now looks very achievable by, say, July latest. If prices are sustained that equates to estimated $14m per month PROFIT = £10.5m. PHENOMENAL!

Annualised that’s $126m PROFIT. With p/e of just 6 (half of sector average, which is extremely conservative given everything BEN has got going for it), and 350m shares that implies sp of £2.16. At sector ave p/e that becomes £4.32, and with a fair wind and meeting above production and profit levels I can’t see why that should not be achievable by end of year.

AW stressed again his aim to return cash to investors at the level of original IPO investment i.e. 10p per share. Again something most AIM companies only dream of doing at some unspecified time years in the future. Given above BEN is likely to be able to do this THIS YEAR. He needs at least £35m cash to do this (and will no doubt want to retain some in the company for other purposes). By Autumn he may well have this in the bank. So I think he’ll be able to pay it this side of Christmas. And he stated again that he wants BEN to be a dividend paying company and it seems to me that with just the above production / profit scenario he could be paying 15-20p per share each year.

The consequences of further expansion start to become eye-watering …

AW seems optimistic that rail transport will be operational in April. I think he said 2 shipments booked. I think he also said the trains have at least 100 cars and each takes 100 tons. So each shipment will be 10000 tons, or approx $2m profit. (And I want to see a film of the first one being loaded and departing...)

Just been able to listen to the podcast. I have to say in all my years investing in AIM AW has to be the best CEO I have come across. We are very fortunate to have him leading the BEN charge. He is completely on top of what he is doing, consistently delivers, often exceeding expectations, is suitably honest and conservative in his projections, and never fails to state his commitment to investors and thank us for our support. Have to say I am happier than ever with my investment here and very excited for the coming months. GLA