Member Info for DropD

Bill - dividends will go to anyone who holds shares when they're announced. I think that what AW means is that it favours early investors as they got more shares for their money. But this sp has only just begun its upward journey - theres a very long way to go yet ... into the £s IMHO - so it's a very good time to invest for both capital growth and dividend returns.

Wow, what a superb interview

to be had today

haggis - I think you heard the same recent Sunday Roast that I did, in which Adam explained that with Integrity happy to take run-of-mine coal in the very short term, it has given an extra couple of weeks to optimise the wash plant, which he said would result in improved efficiency and recovery rates and better financial returns. I'm happy with that. He has been consistent that the aim for the rail line is late feb, but he always caveated that and said it could slip by a week or two, but that in the scheme of things that would not be a problem.

O&W - its certainly true that I'm very optimistic! I agree, I expect there will be challenges along the way, but I'm confident they will be handled well. Focus and delivery have been excellent so far.

thanks Bill, we're on the same page, my calcs actually come out a bit higher!
- generally accepted working figure for BEN initial net profit is $100/ton with met coal around $300/ton
- we DO have offtake agreement with Integrity for 22k tons per month for 12 months (nb "short tons")
- capacity is around twice this with 1st HWM; assume 40k tons/mth
- assuming that capacity and profit are achieved and maintained then fy = 480k tons / $48m net profit = £36m
- with PE of 10 (below sector average) and current 353m shares in issue gives target sp of just over £1, mc ~ £350m

HOWEVER
- met coal price currently £335/ton, extra achieved adds straight to bottom line profit i.e. increase of 33.5%
- all of above potentially doubles with 2nd HWM operational - purchased, CEO will want running asap
- CEO stated aim to work with or acquire neighbours (who mostly don't have working infrastructure) to add to resource, production, profit. 1st lease deal on adjacent property already announced (RNS 16/12)
- wash plant has capacity to process 3m tons per annum (50% recovery = 1.5m tons of met coal output) - so sufficient for 2 x BEN HWMs + processing for neighbours with royalty agreements ...

After refurb, final testing and optimising wash plant underway, aiming for fully operational during Feb. Refurb of rail link due for completion around early Mar. In meantime demand for met coal so high (Integrity) that they are taking unwashed coal - 1st deliveries made, 1st payments due imminently. With wash plant and rail link fully operational, above production will be achieved.

With all above in place BEN will become a profitable cash generating machine. CEO is committed to return cash to shareholders via dividends.

Lots of newsflow expected - its going to be an exciting few months. GLA investors.

bear - just consolidation. no shares keep going up non-stop. PIs and IIs have good reasons for selling. some will already have made good money on BEN. its actually helpful if those who were in early take some £s out now because everything they sell is getting bought at this higher level. and the new buyers will be looking for good gains from here ...

... which I have no doubt they will achieve. If CEO's plans come to fruition, sp could be in the £s this year. Many investors in-the-know are looking for £1+ before the summer.

tremendous show of confidence and support that MBU added 500k on top of their core holding (haggis, they are professionals and will be adhering to all rules). Add those buys of £550k and £1m around 13:00 yesterday - all pointing to great things coming soon.

Massive buys just gone through. 880,000 and 512,820, both at 39p. Shows a lot of confidence. Could be last chance to get in around these levels, esp if AW gives us a surprise on monday morning. GLA

In case you missed the excellent update from the CEO earlier this week. BEN progressing rapidly on all fronts in a market experiencing huge demand. Perfect timing ... and there may be more pleasant surprises in store ...

https://audioboom.com/posts/8017904-midweek-takeaway-with-adam-wilson-ceo-of-bens-creek-aim-ben

AstraZeneca has started to move away from providing its Covid-19 vaccine to countries on a not-for-profit basis. The drugs giant has signed a series of for-profit agreements for next year, and expects to make a modest income from the vaccine, it said. 12 Nov 2021

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59256223#:~:text=AstraZeneca%20has%20started%20to%20move,from%20the%20vaccine%2C%20it%20said.

wolf - I don't see that as a problem. I've seen unsupportive IIs and large holders do massive damage to companies, esp after significant sp rises. I would much rather have what we've got here - expertise and focus in the sector, totally aligned re BEN strategic direction, demonstrated commitment with lengthy lock-in periods. They are aware of the likely huge rise in value of this company, to be reflected in sp in due course (potentially in multiple £s) and I should imagine want to avoid large 3rd parties selling / destabilising during the journey. They are probably also being selfish, with the anticipation of substantial year-on-year dividends, and would prefer to keep those for themselves and their own investors. All of which provides enormous confidence, the same benefits and stability to PIs who are able to secure a slice of the cake.

yeah, thanks Rob! though not sure I agree - last trades before close were 39.92 / 41. We'll see in the morning, not that it matters - we all know where this is going. Have a pleasant evening. Cheers! DD

closed up on the day - brilliant outcome on a day of carnage elsewhere. hope investors spot this, understand the reasons why and come to join us - they will be very welcome - it's still very early days in the BEN story and we're looking for sp to be multiples of current later in the year.

charlie - i agree, as long as they hear about BEN and can quickly get the key info, then I can't see how they could resist! (I may be biased!)

come on haggis, there's loads of possible news, confirmations etc over coming days, weeks, plus the possibility of something(s) unexpected. and as AW said, if in unlikely event more CLNs are issued, that will only be to take advantage of a short term opportunity where the benefits to shareholders greatly outweigh any cost. Also got the fact that BEN must be attractive now in the wider market - its held up very well today compared with almost everyone else and is looking very robust going forward - I would expect quite a lot of people will be moving funds this way after suffering today and much uncertainty ahead (though not in BEN!)

I think CF has been consistent in saying that core ORPH will be sold. My expectation is still that this will happen in 1st half of this year and will be for 50p per share or more ... based on the success of the core business, its forward order book, established market leadership, commercial connections, expertise and IP and growing market for its services. Anything we get for spin offs will be on top. I suspect most of us will be reasonably happy with that outcome.

"We will be returning the cash" [to shareholders]

BEN is safest haven. sp holding up really well today whilst there is carnage all around. Not surprising - profitable cash is king and BEN will be generating mountains of it with 1st payments due imminently. Add extraordinary, rapid growth in the pipeline, market for met coal hot and prices at all time highs, dividends later in the year ... Hope others will spot the opportunity to move funds into BEN now - sp going very much higher in coming days / weeks.

For latest update see today's excellent interview linked below by Shatner.

sienna - yes, we're potentially talking of something around that level. I think AW is a man on a mission, knows exactly what he wants to achieve and how he's going to get there. And I think he wants to do it quickly, fuelled by high demand for met coal. In BEN he's got a company perfectly suited to his expertise and experience, in a market which is hot. Perfect timing.