Member Info for DropD

So in a few months ...
1m tons pa, conservatively current profit $150/ton = $150m (£113m) clear profit pa
Say 2/3 distributed as dividends = $100m (£75m) pa
354m shares = annual div of 21p / share; at current sp that's 28% return, year on year on year
PLUS any capital growth which there inevitably will be if above is being delivered
So buy now and hold for a long time and you'll do very very well!
ALL IMHO. GLA

Erik9 - thank you for that excellent, factually-based post. One of the best for some time. A clear reminder of the excellent investment that BEN is, especially at current sp.

I have quite a sizeable investment in BEN and am content with progress. To be producing 30-40k tons of met coal now, likely generating £3m+ per month profit, having put all necessary infrastructure in place is a considerable achievement. AW's aim has been to get this up to 70-80k tons per month by Aug/Sep and I think he's still on target to achieve that. I understand that in a substantial programme like BEN's there are bound to be unexpected costs, delays etc. But in the grand scheme of things here these are minor i.e. a couple of months delay on something when we have 30+ years life of mine ahead isn't much to worry about; spending an unexpected million or two on developments is not a problem when we have the money, it is going to result in efficient production / delivery and we'll likely be generating upwards of £6m profit per month soon. Bottom line, I trust Adam to overcome challenges and deliver.

I personally think demand for steel (and hence met coal) will remain strong - bigger economies e.g. US tend to spend to avoid / get out of recession - US has funded its $1trn+ infrastructure programme; China is open again to imports etc. There is also the loss of both steel and met coal to global markets as a result of the Ukraine situation.

So whilst sp movement recently has been disappointing, esp when what I consider good news and progress has been reported, I remain confident. And if I had any cash left I would definitely be buying more now. I can't think of another company that has better prospects than BEN.

Kernow - you're right, the situation is different now cf immediate post IPO. All infrastructure and processes now in place, proved and operational, rail deliveries proceeding, deals in place with 2 contiguous properties, very substantially de-risked, demand massive, coal futures strong, us $1trillion+ infrastructure programme approved, China re-opening for imports ... Despite modest recent pullback the future is looking fantastic for BEN. Best share on AIM. GLA

Sonny - each bit of news reports progress and further derisks BEN. In a normal world that would add value. In the weird world of AIM and traders it doesn't necessarily have that effect short term. But to me increases confidence for longer term.

pash - not arguing, just sharing different ideas on the calculations! As you say, a Fantastic position to be in - unlike any other AIM company I am aware of. Very much looking forward to the resource report, progress on commissioning 2nd hwm and license for it to commence production. All coming v soon! With recent progress BEN is further de-risked - there are very few companies around in such a strong position and with such superb prospects going forward from here. GLA BEN investors over coming days and weeks.

Amin - my understanding is net margin, after all costs etc. I.e. bottom line profit. Penstock probably being sensible so that anything better than his projections (which I expect) will be a nice surprise. BUT what a pleasant discussion to be able to have!! I haven't had anything remotely close to this re ANY of my other investments. GLA

Amin - margin was said to be around $100 / ton when met coal B price was around $300 / ton a few months ago. Price is now around $400 / ton, and has been significantly higher recently. Demand + pressure on supplies expected to keep price high.

penstock - my shorter version: 70k tons per month shipped from Sep; @ $200/ton profit = $14m profit per month from Sep. To end Nov that's $42m. PLUS whatever profit's been made before Sep - and there's quite a lot of that building up now. That's £31.5m PLUS. I think Adam will want to pay a div before Xmas, so may not be the full 10p / share, but he'll quickly make it up to that, hopefully with quarterly divs next year.

These are astronomical numbers. I can't think of any other AIM share in a position to be able to do this. 99.9% don't even make any money, let alone give it back to shareholders.

Trades from 13:13 to 13:21 are buys.

SS - tosh re your production interpretation. They were off the cuff numbers illustrating rapid ramp up. Clearly explained how 70k will be delivered from around aug/sep. Disagree strongly re delivery track record. Most major elements have been delivered as indicated, including offtake agreement, 1st hwm, washplant. I agree that rail refurb looks like more substantial than anticipated - that was estimated and delivered by contractors, and no doubt unexpected issues were unearthed along the way. Rail ops delayed by availability of cars - again outside BEN control.

My main point though was I'm personally not concerned about micro assessment. Overall progress has been stupendous and to be in a position within weeks from now of generating possibly £10m profit per month, month-in, month-out is what I'm excited about. The BEN team have shown that they are able to overcome issues as they arise on the way.

So frankly I don't mind what the market thinks today, tomorrow. I'm not a trader, I'm a long term investor and I am extremely confident that in a few months from now sp will be substantially higher than current levels, and we will know about 1st dividend payment.

Personally I'm very pleased with the progress that's being made, delighted by Adam's continuing, infectious enthusiasm as evidenced in today's Roast interview, and its just great to see that first train loading. It would be unrealistic to expect to achieve such a major undertaking without a few glitches, and Adam and his team have dealt with them patiently and methodically - some are clearly outwith BEN's control.

It seems clear that BEN is on course to be producing and shipping 70k-80k+ tons per month by August / September i.e. equivalent to close to the 1 million tons per annum aim. I liked Adam stressing that he's not aiming to be the biggest producer - his focus is on being one of the most, if not the most profitable, (AW: "I think we're right up there") and it seems to me that all the ingredients are there for this to be achieved.

At current prices a steady 1m tons per annum would probably generate at least $200m per annum profit. The scope for dividends is clearly huge. And with the impending resource update the life of mine(s) at that production rate is likely to be decades, so many years of strong returns to investors. This in turn should gradually drive the sp to better reflect earnings with a much higher p/e (sector ave was 12 in Jan22 and in time it should exceed that).

I reckon big boys will be running these numbers too and there could be interest sooner rather than later i.e. before sp reflects a p/e more in line with expected profitability. So much of the hard work's been done now, processes in place, proved and operational, resource about to be confirmed and more than likely increased, and BEN's about to start delivering eye-watering profitability and free cash flow. GLA!

I think I remember AW saying at max speed they could fill a train in 5 hours. That's 100 carts, so one (100 tons) every 3 minutes!

Here you go ...
https://vimeo.com/717069017
https://vimeo.com/717069381
Transformational days ahead for BEN.
GLA investors.

there will be news of trains departing with 12k tons of met coal, pictures, vids etc emerging over the long weekend? Will set things up nicely for a big start on monday. (wwtboototlw!!) GLA

you lot are destroying this board with your relentless petty bickering. (perhaps you're all in it together and that's your aim.) why don't you all just stop with the personal comments. all that's needed here is opinions on AVCT preferably backed up with info, rationale etc. if people have different opinions that's fine - we can all make our own judgements based on what people share.

.. spending the weekend polishing his boots and ironing his gauntlets? Next week's gonna be good. GLA

Interesting discussion re p/e. I stick to my rationale for why jan22 coal sector average of 12 is actually a modest aim, but have no problem with others being more conservative. (But I suggest when p/e of 6 is hit, hold on for higher!)

BEN stands out from the crowd because of high profitability and no debt to repay, so all profit is available for reinvestment in the company (for further expansion and/or production increases) and distribution to shareholders, which CEO has committed to. If AW is able to deliver 10p / share div this year - a stated aim and seemingly do-able given current economics - that's about a 12.5% return on shares bought today and held. Not sure there are many in our business matching that at the moment.

Sharelad - have you got anything actually useful to say about the company?

AJ - agree again, but that's a good thing if you're invested for longer term. Firmer base being established at around this level.

AJ - here's my thinking. Short term we'll be producing and shipping (rail) 40k tons per month (1st hwm only, running double shifts). With met coal price at ath I reckon we're clearing $250 profit per ton. With all infrastructure now in place and operational, good resource, strong market, no debt, good jurisdiction, great management, prospect of 1st dividend this year, p/e should be at sector ave at very least = 12. Put all that together gives sp of £3.05. On top there's resource upgrade coming soon to include the 2 contiguous properties added since IPO. Then add 2nd hwm and ramp up of production to 70k tons by late summer. I hope explains my optimism... GLA investors.