Member Info for DropD

Amin, 18th May, 86p: 'This is a good opportunity for some serial moaners to cash out and leave us to go to 100's in peace'.

Hello friends. I'm not a ramper. I'm a long term investor. I have always backed up what I have said with numbers. You may not agree with them but they are genuinely what I think / thought at the time of posting.

SP collapse clearly gut-wrenching, esp for me as a holder. HOWEVER, I would still much rather be invested in a company with solid assets ('world class' were the words used recently by CEO); in profitable production, doubling capacity soon; substantially de-risked; working and selling in relatively benign jurisdiction. (Compared with so many others who have nothing real or are working in less stable parts of the world.)

I'm here for years, not days, weeks or months; imv sp is responding (short-sightedly) to short-term issues plus some determined selling from a big holder creating panic ; I still look forward to dividends quarter on quarter for many years (imo they'll represent a fantastic roi for those buying now).

I happen to think that return to current sp is totally unexpected and an incredible opportunity for those who missed out 1st time around.

GLA investors.

Amin - don't set too much store by results. I believe they are only up to end March so won't reflect current production, delivery and profitability. They'll be more about costs of getting all infrastructure in place and operational in the period from IPO to end March. Hopefully costs in that period covered by relatively small income generated and funds raised.

Not good business to sell when price is low, esp with likelihood of it recovering as high production and profitability become the norm. I Imagine MBU will hold tightly for the substantial regular divs they will receive. At lower sp the div represents an even higher return which they will potentially receive regularly over many years.

Amin - very sad to say you were right re sp! Well done and congrats on your buying ..

Jazzza - haha! I agree with tenantry's view of the hwm situation and am happy that we'll have 3 of them. Also happy to have confirmation that the additional contract with MHW will be for 32-40k tons per month. Also happy that AW again reiterated production capacity of 80k tons pm. His aim for this level of production has been consistently around end summer ie aug/sep so still on track for that.

Not so happy with sp action, obv!

amin - based on profit projections by the CEO in earlier days when met coal price was significantly lower than current. You're right, met coal price may change - it may go up again for all we know - some think it will due to demand and supply issues. My assessment is based on current prices.

Amin - depends if AW waits to be able to pay 10p / share 1st div - which will need cash of about £35m. If production is up to 80k tons pm from sep at current prices that's probably generating at least £9m profit per month. So could have the nec funds by Xmas to pay early in new year. Or he may choose to pay a smaller div (5p?) sooner. Nice problem to have. Can't think of many other AIM Co's in this position.

Tenantry - thanks. Anyone buying at current price and holding for dividends is likely to get a very nice return, year-on-year, for many years. PLUS I would expect substantial capital gains as the market wakes up to this. GLA investors.

Cost of 3rd hwm covered by profit from 16 days production from 1 hwm. Not a bad contingency IMHO.

Very nice thank you, just about to win the test match.

Tenantry + Erik - thanks for these thoughts, I'm interested in this line of thinking. How do you think a selling price might be calculated?

bbb - I guess you're pleased that BEN had the 1st refusal then, and that the 2nd MHW rig can be in, up and running quickly, with target 80k tons pm production by end summer still very much intact?

One measure of how good a business / management is, is how they plan for and cope with the unexpected. AW created the conditions months ago whereby he had 1st refusal on 2nd hwm from MHW, and also has the funding available to make it happen if required. Perhaps unforeseen issues with spares for 3rd hwm, so AW's triggered his right of 1st refusal, so delivery and into operation in very short order, with no delay to planned programme (it can't start mining until permit arrives), and further strengthens the link with industry leaders MHW. It takes pressure off the 3rd hwm which is being fixed up, but which once available will be important back-up to maintain high volume production, with potential to be deployed in addition to the other 2 too.

I'm happy with this, and very pleased to see AW reiterate 80k tons per month target, yet again.

HtotheK - thanks for another insightful 1-liner. It's a machine that's likely to generate BEN $6m / month profit - not of interest?

Quiet on here at the moment. Understandable - BEN is now getting on with mining, delivering, receiving cash, making profit, expanding production capability and increasing the resource. Unlike almost all others on AIM (and there are some sad stories emerging of non-productive companies running out of money, shareholders possibly losing the lot etc), BEN is NOW generating large amounts of profitable cash, and this is set to grow substantially and quickly, over coming weeks. BEN is now substantially de-risked, unlike so many others which are risked up to their eyeballs, and beyond! This is why I'm happy to be invested in BEN. And the coming weeks and months are just going to add to the already great story. Here's to a good week ahead. GLA

This is mainly about thermal coal for heat and energy production. NOT BEN's business - we're in the metallurgical coal business, essential in steel production which in turn is essential for infrastructure programmes and clean energy production eg wind turbines, nuclear power stations etc.

as AW said only last week:
- world class resource
- expecting 40-50 years production @ 1m tons pa

met coal price holding firm, so min current profit likely around $150/ton. Production NOW should be min 30k tons per month so around $4.5 m/ £3.4m profit each month. (Most AIM companies would give their right arm for this rather than their mostly wishful thinking ...)

news due any time re 2nd hwm into production and new permit(s). this will gradually lead to doubling of above over summer.

On track to get to target production 70k+ tons per month around end summer, in turn establishes conditions for 1st of regular dividend payments.

Yup, gonna be ups and downs. If you want to be invested at this time then I suggest best place for your money is in a business with proven assets, generating income and profit i.e. BEN ... unlike 95% of other companies on AIM who only have hopes and dreams ...

Pullback today may concern traders. Not a problem for LTHs - infact good to get solid buying in quantity at these levels by investors who are hopefully looking for more than 10% short term return.

Stay cool! GLA

Jsmith - that's the number for the initial div AW is aiming to pay using 1st part-year profits. He wants to try and retun the original investments at IPO which were 10p / share. My figs are for full years at target full production going forward.