Member Info for DRB83

Someone already asked that tonight. Think it was big Dunc. You may not be aware be Novacyt have not divulged the breakdown of their sales by covid and non covid. That would be great information if they did, but as they haven't you can't really use it as an argument. Could be more than £13m or less. We are in a covid pandemic and Nova themselves already stated several times that Covid is the priority as you would expect but you should already have known that.

Byp, you state:

"After covid, it’s back to pre covid revs. How much were the non covid product revenues Steve in 2020 and first half of 2021?"

No long term holder would have this opinion. Pre covid revenue is history. Post covid revenue is something completely different and vastly more. Only a true amateur deramper would claim that with £100m in the bank we will drop back to pre covid revenues. Does he know anything about what Nova have or is he just stirring the pot. Hand on chin with finger on lip emoji.

Could be a 2 month trial. Certainly wouldn't make sense to employ someone on a 12 month contract. Why didn't you think of that?

Your talking a load of TA. Fundamentals are solid here.

Hi Dunc, You know that information hasn't been made available to the general public so can I ask 'what are you implying?'

Shell, you're still hanging onto the 'less cash must = loss maker'. I thought we and Nova had explained but clearly it escaped you.

You and the market see a loss making, cash burning enterprise (yet you buy in so a little strange). The rest of us see a company adding £3m to the cash pile on a monthly basis. EBITDA of 43%.

Nova are a rapidly expanding business but you expect R&D spend to decline, mmmm. You think £1.9m is alot when you have £100m in the bank increasing by £3m every month. You expect a growing company to reduce spend on general expenses mmmm. Glad you're not running Nova. If your deramp is based on fundamentals then you won't stand a chance here (yet you bought in today, strange)

That's a little bit cringe shell. Novacyt goes up or it goes down. Nova never stands still. It has spent 90% of this year going down. You made a call and guessed that it would go down. It did, so well done and congratulations on such a great entry price. However, it hardly warrants comparing yourself to the more researched on here. A little embarrassing.

It is quite obvious to most that the market is completely out of touch with reality when it comes to valuing Nova. All you have proved is that you're just as out of touch as the market.

The mcap is already a lot less than what ncyt is actually worth. I trust you are referring to the net assets on the balance sheet which is not a good indicator of worth for a company such as Novacyt. I agree though, we are getting rediculously close.

All good points Kaeren. Personally, I would be happy even if it stayed at 26 as 3 new products every couple of months is what some on aim could only dream of. I would say 26 was about on trend with what we have seen so far and adding more would be amazing.

I'm hopeful and expecting to beat the £100m and I hope for us all that I am not disappointed as we need some growth news given where the SP is currently.

If Nova do a placing Dunc then I will genuinly label you the Messiah. Not because I deem it impossible but because only one person in a million would look at Novacyt's position and predict a placing is on the cards.

I like your thinking Steve but the wording in the RNS is below:

From RNS

The Company reiterates revenue guidance, excluding the disputed DHSC revenue, for the full year of approximately £100 million and underlying EBITDA margin of approximately 40%, as announced on 22 June 2021.

It clearly states 'excluding the disputed DHSC revenue'. Therefore I believe the £4.7m contract is part of the £100m. Wish I was wrong..

Covid stock? Ok. Right now, yes. For sure, but what baffles me is how you think that as we transition away from covid next summer hopefully, Nova just bleed away their cash pot in excess of £150m, US HQ gets fire balled and a loop hole in the insurance means we get nothing and now have insufficient funds to start it again so we just knock the US on the head. R&D team go do-lally and just keep churning out Covid products despite covid no longer being an issue. Placings galore. Every single sales person all of a sudden completely forget how to sell so we lay them all off and decide not to replace. Eventually we settle back into our £10m sales per annum and decide 'that'll do'

I mean, come on. If people can't see the future potential of ncyt then they really shouldn't be investing imo. Time in the market is what is needed here.

It wouldn't have to be sour grapes trouble. Just taking credit for your own achievements before you leave.

26 before the end of 2022 I believe. You could count Co-prep as one also so that's 3. Even if we say the LFT home test is 1. That still leaves us with 22 in 15 months or 3 every 2 months. The R&D team alone must be worth £100m

It does seem very strange for GM to leave at such an exciting time for the company. It could be one of several reasons. We don't know GM's personal situation with family and health ect but I'm suspecting he was pushed by the bod. This would mean at least some of the bod know what their doing.

Some people just can't hack the big leagues and nothing personal against GM, he did well to get us to the Championship and for a short period I thought the Premier League beckoned, but as we now have a relegation dogfight on our hands we need DA to get us to the promise land.

It is concerning that the £100m was not revised upwards in the last RNS. We did £10m in June. Since then testing has increased. Holidays and economy opening up. DHSC contract. We should be seeing month on month growth.

Any less than £30m is a backward step but as Steve indicates, if we did have £30m then why not revise the outlook. They chose to reiterate the £100m. That would mean £16m in Q4 which according to ncyt is expected to be a busier quarter. This means either:

1. We have gone backwards in Q3 compared to June and only delivered around £20m not £30m.
2. Nova have not got a clue when it comes to forecasting.

I like neither but prefer 2.

Depends what GM's motives are but if some good news was on the horizon and it happened under my watch I would want to be the one to take the credit, not the new guy.

£35+ would be followed by an upwards revision of the £100m to say £120m. That would go down a treat.

A quick look at the last 4 days government testing and you will notice a significant drop. Are they running low on PCR tests. Capacity is still 800k+ which I believe is calculated on facilities available, equipment and labour resources.

At 35k positive cases per day and a 8-10% positivity rate, that £4.7m contract won't last until March 2022 imo.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Chris2, if you want to add value to this board then please put some substance behind your post. Expensive? What is it costing UFO? To determine if it is expensive you must have benchmarked against a similar company and their costs. Please share. Otherwise it is just opinion based on nothing. All for pros and cons but without substance it doesn't mean much.