Member Info for DRB83

Chris, you say

"This might turn out to be one of them but don’t get bitter against those that may see the picture a little differently to the excitable immature minority on here"

Isn't that exactly what you are doing with the pro UFO clang, so a little pot, kettle, black moment there.

I don't recall one bit of substance supporting your opinion over the last few months at least.

Role play - I am an unsuspecting investor in UFO. Please show me the error of my ways and reveal to me the woods as these trees are getting in my way. Be my saviour and convince me why I have made such a huge mistake and should sell my entire holding. After all, this is what most deramping trolls claim to be. A saviour to the unsuspecting.

I sure hope DA is an extrovert and sets up loads of interviews and road shows. I can't imagine Twitter for a company like ncyt has the required reach.

Hi Neil. I would expect 100k per day minimum also given they have 600 staff and all the top spec robotics in a brand new lab. My point is that it would only take 10 days to perform 1 million tests, yet they only achieved that milestone after approx 100 days.

My reference to the Q machines was to highlight that 20k tests per day is not such a great average for such a MEGA Lab. 60 q machines could do that which would in comparison be classed as a MINI lab.

what am I missing?

Dunc, I am just trying to highlight to the more unsuspecting investors that in your opinion you say we won't break US and we have 99.8% missed the covid train and that the US won't give any major contracts to non US companies. That to some extent I agree with as the US can look after itself and it would take some mind boggling product development to cut a large slice of the US pie. Well, ncyt are great at that which is why I only agree with your opinion to some extent.

You missed my point (possibly in purpose) which is that we don't need to break the US or catch the covid train to show the market we are worth multiples of £180m mcap. Pre covid the US was our 2nd biggest market with only £2.3m revenue behind Europe. UK had only £2.1m. That was done with very little cash, a lot lower headcount and R&D investment, a lot smaller distribution channel and a much smaller product offering. This year we will take about £7m ish revenue out of the US. That's still with no full FDA product approvals, no bricks and mortar presence and no direct sales team. Back to my point, we just need to show consistent growth in the US market. £10 in 22 £15m in 23 and so on. We can buy a share today for roughly £180m mcap. With these small increments in US sales our US arm alone would be worth multiples of £180m in a few years.

Dunc appears to be focusing on that NCYT won't be £1b revenue company in the US by 2023 and using that as a negative. A bit like saying to young aspiring 10 year old that he won't be as good as Messi next year so there, told you you were crap. In 10 years time he might only be as good as Sadio Mane but he'll still be raking in millions every month.

One million tests since June. Anyone done the maths here?

Let's say 100 days since it opened. That's an average of 10,000 tests per day. We currently perform about 400k tests per day across the union. So Leamington Spa undertake 2.5% of all PCR tests in the UK.

With anything new it never kicks in to fully operational immediately and it would've taken time to get the headcount up so let's say most of that one million tests have been done September as opposed to July. Let's say they now average 20k tests per day which is 5% of the UK total. Why do I feel, for a mega lab this should be way higher. 60 Q32's working double shifts could achieve this level of tests and would need much less staff to operate. It would be interesting to see how much of the 800k daily capacity Leamington Spa account for. Anyone know?

Thanks Dunc, very detailed post however, most of it is just based on your opinion. You seem to mainly focus on how in your opinion ncyt won't be able to compete to get anywhere near the front of the queue for contracts and meaningful sales in the US. What you fail to point out though is that ncyt don't actually need to be anywhere near the front of the queue. We had £3.4m of sales in H1 21. We just need to beat that in H2. So let's say £4m. Then in 2022 let's say £10m. All we need to show is consistent growth, and what's £10m? We have presence in the US with our distributors and even more now with our bricks & mortar and team of 10 sales staff. You put the right man in place directing the US business, who already has the connections to get direct sales into just a few settings and your £10m is child's play. We really don't need to be aiming for £100m contracts from the US. We will try and who says we won't but we certainly don't need to.

We've been saying this for weeks now. At least it's out there now from someone who may carry some clout in his inner circles. I hope he has a big voice.

Government documented updated today. Looks like governments will be readying their multiplex tests as we speak. I hope our partners can make Winterplex affordable to order by the millions. See extract from report below.

https://gov.wales/coronavirus-control-plan-autumn-and-winter-2021-update

Test
This winter, we will maintain widespread community testing. Indeed, given the
additional risks posed this winter from flu, we will increase testing for some
high-risk groups by using a test which can detect both flu and COVID-19
(known as multiplex testing).
Our approach over Winter will continue to be based on:
• Test to diagnose, with the inclusion of multiplex testing.
• Test to safeguard, to also include multiplex testing for symptomatic cases
in care homes.
• Test to find within the community.
• Test to maintain, ensuring resilience of services/psychological safety within
education and workplace settings.
• Test to enable which will include testing requirements for the COVID Pass
and international travel.
Testing capacity to support our testing purposes is at an all-time high and the
laboratory network has been consistently delivering fast turnaround times.
However, modelling indicates that if we experience a difficult winter, with high
levels of respiratory viruses circulating, there is a risk that testing demand could
exceed lab capacity across the UK. If this happens we may have to prioritise the
use of PCR testing and look at how best we can utilise lateral flow tests.
In time, we hope our response to COVID-19 can be ‘normalised’ so that, in line
with other winter viruses, testing will be undertaken for more limited purposes,
such as for clinical diagnosis and surveillance.

Agreed that technically UFO SP is in a downward trend but surely you don't believe it will last into perpetuity. News of a JV, some solid drill results, a MRE upgrade, a silver run, an iron-ore run or any of several other things and sentiment here turns on a sixpence.

Question is, do you know when that will be?

Didn't it mention in the last R&D update that Co-prep was indeed codeveloped. With who I wonder.

Surfie, I feel pretty confident about it. Given we have about £1.40 in cash.

SP is dropping on low sentiment and interest in our stock. Nothing regarding the fundamentals. With the provisions we created in the accounts a few weeks back we derisked further. Therefore, my strategy remains that these prices are a bargain and a perfect top up opportunity.

We provide numerous tests for the diagnosis of numerous infections and illnesses. Pretty simple business model really in a hugely growing market. One of the best R&D teams and bioinformatics departments out there. Also making sure our tests are top top and relevant. This in its own right is risk mitigation.

Extract from 2020 accounts:

Primerdesign
The impairment testing of the CGU as of 31 December 2020 was conducted by the DCF (discounted cash flow) method, with the
key assumptions as follows:
• Five-year business plan;
• Extrapolation of cash flows beyond five years based on a growth rate of 1.5%; and
• Discount rate corresponding to the expected rate of return on the market for a similar investment, regardless of funding sources,
equal to 19.8%.
The implementation of this approach demonstrated that the value of the Enterprise Value amounted to £180,961,000, which is
greater than the carrying amount of this asset. As such, no impairment was recognised in the year ended 31 December 2020.

Roll up, Roll up buy one Primer Design and get Microgen, IT-IS, £95m cash, intellectual properties and much more, absolutely free.

Ok. I'll have some of that.

Wba, don't worry about the SP going to £1.

Thanks Max. Need to do more homework.

Thanks max. I converted it to 4oz/t which at current rates is less than $100/t. We were saying the other day how extracting DSO from surface would cost $50/t so I would expect the cost to mine silver at 100m would be significantly more. I am a rookie when it comes to mining so I may be missing something blatantly obvious but how is 120g/t economical at $23/Oz of silver? Not intended to be a deramp just very curious to check my understanding.

Why are you here again?

Byp, so in summary you believe:

Covid is already fizzling out because of our high Vax rates.
Our covid products Inc Versa Lab just aren't that great
Post covid we'll struggle to meet the £13m revenue of pre covid.
Q machines will become redundant, we won't develop new ones and Thermo Fisher and the likes will beat us into the ground.
The bod are dishonest criminals

Did I miss anything?
Remind me how much you have invested here? (No need to answer)

Let's say by the end of next summer we have 3000 machines dotted around the world. Let's say each one of those machines uses just 10 tests per week so thats 1.5m test per annum at £10 per test would generate £15m revenue per annum.

We sell 550+ assays which most can or will be compatible with the q machines. Anyone shelling out £6k on a machine will likely be using more than 10 tests per week. You can see how simple it would be for us to generate serious revenue post covid. Byp, what are your thoughts, just for my amusement please.

Max, what is your take on the 120g/t silver reading?

Figure 3: Silver bearing granite chips from RC hole AMEHRC002 at 64m depth, Elizabeth Hill, October 2021 (pXRF reading 120 g/t silver).

Byp, you mean you haven't got an idea of where our revenue post covid comes from. Really? Tell me again. What are you doing here?