Member Info for DRB83

Buy the dips, hold all imo

1700 q16 & 250 q32's in 6 months. That forms a strong base for repeat sales of PROmate and other 550 assays. That base will continue to grow month on month. Co-prep should help accelerate that growth.

Apologies, jumped the gun. Novice error and forgot Attogene's mark up.

Let's say it's 50% so double the number of machines we have sold. Still same point though. Wrist slapped

Apparently Attogene are selling the machines in the US for approx £6.5k q16 and £15k q32. See below:

https://attogene.com/shop/genesig-q32-real-time-pcr-instrument/

I couldn't easily find any other prices to benchmark these. If this is the case then it really puts our IT-IS sales into perspective. £7.5m in 6 months. Let's assume 75% were the smaller q16 machines and the rest were q32. That is approx 850 q16's and 125 q32's. This is a good start but highlights how much growth opportunity we still have here. Maybe the Co-prep innovation will help us realise the full potential of IT-IS.

Clueless, this has been on my mind. One last 'up yours' to the shareholders by selling the lot on his last day. I think he's down about 70% so it would be an expensive 'up yours'

I'm all for a director buy. If it was intentional manipulation by the bod then GM would have bought in by now. Do many directors buy shares on their way out? I doubt it so too late for him now.

I don't think it is intentional manipulation by the bod, just a real lack of understanding and appreciation of how markets work. At these prices, if we don't get director buys then the answer is 1 of 3 reasons:

1. They are in a block out period probably due to DHSC
2. They're skint
3. There is potential some bad news in the air.
4. They see their long term future away from ncyt.

Can only think 3 would be DHSC but even then, Directors don't trade the shares they would be invested for years so they wouldn't be too bothered about the buy in price.

I personally believe we'll see some this year. Significant ones also. DA would be an obvious one.

The problem with highlighting others grammar and punctuation mistakes in a cynical, sarcastic way is that you're basically inviting scrutiny on yourself. I personally just wouldn't bother. If you can understand the point then leave it be imo.

Just to clarify what I believe is meant by post covid. Currently we have not learned to live with the pandemic. We are still finding our feet with strategies being developed and binned on an almost daily basis across the planet. The post covid era begins when we have found a tried and tested sustainable method that works in controlling and keeping control of covid in a way that does not hinder too much the daily lives of the vast majority of people. When this will be will not be clear and may not become clear until months into the post covid era.

Flu never went away but we don't see it as a pandemic.

WBAFC, so we have everything we need just someone to steer the ship who is a little more commercially minded. Mmmmm

Thank you Kitzie, appreciated. At least some read the content and not just check the punctuation.

Don't think they're listening Steve :-) funny though

We did B2 but no denying that before the dispute our no.1 priority was servicing the government. £30m of stock build up just for this 1 customer supports that statement. Very high risk which ultimately played out and here we are.

If I can make 1 positive out of the dispute is that imo it forced (encouraged) us to accelerate our attentions to other customers and geographies, thereby mitigating some of the future risks.

Trouble. You really are struggling to move on from this aren't you. There must be a million differences between how we write but you are fixated on the few similarities.

That's quite clearly only 1 line space and I am pretty sure most of the country was taught to leave a full space to start a new paragraph. Even the writers and novelists can back me up there.

Poor effort Trouble

Aim naturally carries with it alot of risk, hence the huge potential gains. Looking at Nova, once the dispute is resolved either way, I don't see many significant risks like you would get with most other aim companies.

1. We have established sales already
2. No need for placings or rights issues or anything similar
3. The industry we are in is booming and it's not just confined to a country or even a continent but the entire globe.
4. Since the dispute we have been forced to spread our sales further across several geographies thereby diluting risk.
5. US expansion will further dilute risk
6. We have hundreds of tests for hundreds of markets

Even with the dispute we have 60% of it covered off in the statements. The SP has already priced in 100%+ imo so that risk has even been mitigated as much as possible.

At less than £200m mcap can anyone see any risks with the fundamentals. I can't but open to a discussion.

Short termers will continue to look at the charts on a daily basis. What is £2.50 next week could be £7 the week after. Long termers don't mind the £2.50 weeks because it's an obvious time to fill your boots if possible. The fundamentals are so strong here that when the ducks allign and the strategy plays out the SP will have no choice but to catch up. At which point all lth's are greatly rewarded.

Very good points Kaeren. Not really thought about it like that so thank you for triggering another angle for me to consider.

Here we go again I feel. Like with vaccines. They didn't affect ncyts fundamentals but significantly affected sentiment towards ncyt. Eventually, the market was proved wrong as we built back up towards £12. Treatments are starting to come to the fore now. There are lots of reasons as per Kaerens post to suggest that treatments and testing will complement each other and therefore the fundamentals of ncyt remain strong. How will the market and sentiment react to the news of a new breakthrough treatment? Whatever the reaction it will be short term imo but as we are now already in the basement I for one don't expect any further significant drops from here.

Deas. I agree. Testing won't go away but it will decline staying probably as you say in the clinical settings eventually. As an established diagnostics company with a huge cash pile we will navigate ourselves through this transition successfully imo. Others will not, the pop businesses will either choose to leave the market or reducing prices will force their hand. Covid will prove to be a long term revenue stream for us but just a lot smaller than it is now and over the next 12 months.

Barnet, a lot of hindsight comments in there which we are now all privvy to. What you fail to appreciate is that the charts don't tell you when the eagerly anticipated dispute resolution RNS will drop and when it does it is expected that we will never see these prices ever again. Therefore, you are just as likely to get it wrong by selling at £4 and missing out on the news as you are to hold at £4 and the SP falls as news never arrives. The charts don't tell us that so your £2 prediction is just as opportunistic for shorters as me holding waiting for a bounce to £7 in the resolution news. This is what makes the market after all.

In terms of lth being mugs, I disagree mostly. This time last year investors predicted that testing would be around for years so bought in as the market started realising it. Then the vaccines arrived faster than anyone could have predicted and the market reacted by saying covid is over, testing is finished, back to normal we go. Lth held predicting testing was going nowhere, vaccines and testing will go hand in hand. 12 months on and we are testing more now or will soon be than we have ever done during the course of this pandemic. Testing is in fact likely to increase over the next 4 months or so. So the mugs actually got it right. We got the market reaction wrong.

Shortly after the vaccine news we arrived back at alth as the market realised that the mugs were right all along.

Now the dispute. No one predicted it. Why would you as you would never invest in a company if you always factored in a huge dispute with your biggest customer. Remove the dispute and it is quite likely we would have agreed the 2nd contract as well as others and we would now be sat at £20+ further proving our reason to hold through the vaccine news. You say the clever folk got out at £11 but it was more luck than anything.

The fundamentals are still hugely strong here and support a SP way north of here nevermind £2. The mugs may be proven right again if it is proven that we adhered to the contract. Lth don't sell the peaks that's what traders do. Lth have always known and seen the underlying value of ncyt. The market got it wrong last time with vaccines presenting a huge opportunity to shorters and traders. Will they get it wrong again with the dispute. We all know that traders and shorters have been having a field day ever since the dreaded RNS but in the long term we will arrive back at our £20+ as if it never happened.

Tymers, your post is based purely on technicals which are based purely on what has gone before. Most investors here I believe are here because they are looking forwards not backwards.

I will happily invite you and anyone else for that matter to share with us your thoughts (negative and positive) on the fundamentals (future) of UFO. Then we have means for a discussion.

It was only going to be a matter of time before treatments finally started to arrive thick and fast. Great news for civilization. Agree that this won't help sentiment around covid testing companies.

Testing, whilst highly necessary has always been viewed as a burden on society, another expense, inconvenient. Vaccines and treatments on the other hand are seen as saviours.

However, with the SP down here I don't expect any significant drop but it will of course hinder our climb up.

With regards to fundamentals, covid testing is going to be required for many more months. As demand and prices reduce it will be the covid pop up businesses that fall first imo meaning supply capacity will also drop meaning established companies like ncyt will be less effected initially.

Having said this, it may sound counter intuitive but covid only seems to have been holding us back this last 6 months. We constantly get classified as a covid stock which is not true but sits heavy on the SP. The sooner we get covid under control the sooner we can reassure the market that we have everything we need to prosper in a post covid world:

1. Universal machines for multiple different assays
1a. Some of the most intuitive products on the market (Coprep)
2. Hundreds of assays
3. Established global distribution channels
3a. Established supply chain both left and right.
4. Army of trained sales reps
5. Cash pile like you wouldn't believe
6. High quality R&D department
7. High quality Bioinformatics team
8. Established framework for getting new products approved rapidly
9. An excellent reputation among our customers, suppliers, employees and the industry for delivering an excellent product/service (we don't know enough about the DHSC dispute to confidently say it was shoddy product/supply, ncyt say it's DHSC fault)

We will leverage all of these qualities and flourish in the post covid world and let's not forget the 'early pandemic warning system' that needs to be built globally. Ncyt will be a core asset to the UK government especially in building this new infrastructure.

In summary, imo ncyt will only realise it's true potential once covid is under control. Until then £12 may be the ceiling with the biggest jump being the successful resolution of the dispute. Once the transition to non covid starts then the sky is the limit. All great for both short term and long term holders. All imo of course.