Member Info for dougb189

Its NOT the dilution peeps, its the total lack of clarity on what the dilution is for, that raises concern.

And so why would AM behave as he is now doing, ie rinsing all the shareholders for a cash fund that he is not going to use until After the 15th...

I keep coming up with... RBS.

£1B in loans previously offered and then scuppered.

HSBC? & Perhaps he just doesn’t like the banks..

My bad.
From previous
RE: Need to crack 0.4003 Mar 2021 10:50
...As everyone agrees, there’s a wee bit manipulation of the sp by the MM’s catering for big sellers & VIP buyers. At this rate, next week then sees 4 days at 0.4, followed by a 5th day at say 2p, giving Atomic Senior an avg. 0.7p....

0.5p would as you point out, be the avg if sp tops out at the 1p.
Sentiment will play a big part, as will any quality ii’s or VIP’s onboard.
As it stands though, with no forthcoming RNS to say what exactly the £14M has been spent on (other than the current spiel) within the next 3 days, most shareholders will question why the dilution could not have been done after the 15th... Sentiment is going to then be lacking. Giving 1.0 to 1.5p?

Was previously guesstimated as 4 days at 0.4p then final day at 1.0p giving an avg. c.0.7p. This was then somewhat scorned. Which was reasonable as the POO was seeing a steady increase as was the sentiment, courtesy of those gentle ramps aka ‘high minded theories’.

Is that now, Pi’s might just consider hedging their bets:

IF the sentiment was to get played again, would we then see a repeat of the last ‘two’ fund raises, where AM then hijacked the bb sentiment and rinsed & diluted each fund raise with a further 2nd fund raise, literally within days of a major dilution.. Will history repeat itself & we again see a double whammy. Have the two mates that get dripped fed on each dilution, had a recent fix ?

IF we don’t play the game and the sp stays put with no sentiment, then that puts Atomic Senior’s slice, back into controlling figures as per the above.

Hedging my bets and i’d like to think that there was someone at the top table had interests covering not only themselves but the shareholders too. Will we get a TR-1 & a named recipient ?

Keeping sentiment away for a couple of days may hopefully offset AM again diluting & get Atomic Senior with some decent clout.. just saying, be careful. Hedge a wee bit.

A good morning for doing a wee bit painting outside whilst indulging in numerous coffees to try & digest the data.

Sincere ii, or another bucket shop? a couple of wee red flags, namely from the CFO & the 'it gives confidence to the company's debt providers' which simply does not tie in. Full stop. Similar from Cathy, which I then red flagged. Effectively puts the company doing the M&A on the bottom rung, in terms of financial dealings. 'Bucket shop'. and is I don't believe so, or at least not in the short term. That 'gentleman's agreement' on holding the equity till possibly 2022? Lol. It will now hinge on AM's ability to perform again as an oilman. It could be argued that his ability to perform again as an accomplished deal maker, is somewhat tarnished. So, yet further COPL word salads and it IS a rather large war chest..

£13M... is a similar figure to that when he previously went shopping, many moons ago..... For a company jet.

A 12% share in the Bonga is still available. Equates to c.24,000bod & for the knock-down price of $750M. Might be tediously boring for AM being directed by SNEPCO, but as a strategic Nig.gov asset, it would then gain AM a place at the top table for any new licenses....More dilution?

As h4b highlighted, there are two big players moving into the region..
bringing seriously big investment into the basin.

£13M / by tomorrow's closing price, prior issue on 11th.

targeting? say, 2B OS, & so then requires an sp 0.65p
which then requires a clarification RNS...

just can't envisaged any ii's sitting on their hands for 12 months,

puts it back into a significant oil player.

Current mc £37M, less the previous mc with only OPL226 on the books, £12M,
ie. a £25M mark-up, for Atomic.

Atomic's 57%WI evaluated at £25M, then puts the remaining 43%WI at c. £18.5M,
for which the NOP's current evaluation could be reasonable assumed to be c.£11.84M,
fairly close got £13M fund raise..

Next Monday and IF all goes well, then the current WI% is guess-timated at c.£250M,
which by comparison then puts the other 43% WI, at c.£185M.

Would perhaps therefore be wiser acquiring the remaining assets, soonest..

Recap of Saturday night's musings, giving an approximation for 100% WI

'.... I suspect though, you are asking what happens if we acquire 100%WI of the BFU & the CC fields ?
..the markets would then use the CPR production figures (as apposed to the more recent in-house simulator modelling figures). You could then obtain an approximate NPV 5 year forecast, using 2500bod as avg. for 2021, then 5000bod for 2022, & the CPR final figure of 7000bod for 2026. Putting in linear values for the intervening 2 years, then produces a net cash flow of $609M using $65/bbl. inputting the debt fig. of $26M, then gives an NPV of $587M (£420M).
The market capital may be less than this as is dependent on several more metrics, but the unknown quantity ‘sentiment’ may then see it increase...'

Not as accurate as a qualified CPR's NPV 10 calculation, but I believe gives an approximate value.

Then requires the dilution figures for latest funds..
£13M, so approx 30% of existing mc, but would expect AM to give away heaps of warrants again(?) so figure might be closer to 50% dilution. Still makes for substantial gains.

Chitta, a 3rd project, possibly in Nigeria would not be cheap.
BIG loans would then be required but having paid for BFU & CC via the shareholders,
which then allows that possible next loan to go through.

'..Unless copl are using equity instead of the loan...'

last dilution (100%) took us down from 0.25p down to c.0.22p,
with the prospects of tat sp c.1.5 to 2.5p

this dilution, say c.0.35p which then gives possible access to 100% of BFU & CC,
say... 3.5 to 4.0p ?

Daceon, that's the gist of it,
these additional funds look like they are being used to obtain either NOP or CNOOC.

Getting a 100% WI of BFU & CC fields will then be mega.

Mega.

The funds available, could have paid for the additional 'assets'..
But choosing to keep the debt ratio low,
which hints of further BIG loans..

keeps the debt / EBITDA ratio very low.
shareholders have payed for Atomic plus either/&. NOP / CNOOC.

Kinda hints at the '3rd project' being on the cards.

Lol, it looks like the shareholders are gonna buy either the NOP 27% or the CNOOC 15%..

whoop whoop..

& also right, is that it again shows that your words are... shallow.

08 Mar 2021 07:43
“...Disagree LB, just an alternative forum. Haven't gone through all the posts from the weekend but this forum craves ramping and seems to jump on alternative views....”

So, it’s therefore “ramping” when the bb re-post the CPR NPV 10 figures, tied in with their calcs based on current WTI prices,
yet, it’s then reasonable to highlight that Pi’s are “panic selling...”

Shallow indeed.