Member Info for dougb189

A strong candidate as our lender could be the American finance house Trafigura, who in 2018 offered to assist in lending $30-$50M sized loan against the OPL226 field, inclusive of a deal to gain them $3M worth of COPL warrants at closing price, when the lending deal was completed. So, they had at that time a v.good belief in the product.

Earlier today & they wrote of why they were bullish on oil :

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/trafigura_offers_bullish_oil_market_outlook-22-feb-2021-164699-article/

Good write up on WTI outlook, from Trafigura (a strong candidate as our credit supplier, as per 2018 Essar arrangements with their offer then of $30-$50M loan, after 6000bod has been achieved on OPL field, inclusive of a deal for $3M worth of COPL warrants at closing price, when deal is made).

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/trafigura_offers_bullish_oil_market_outlook-22-feb-2021-164699-article/

'..HSBC TR1's, powerpoints on the website stating "will close" with absolute certainty..'

Lol, was it not absolute certainty that was printed in the RNS of 18th December ??

I'm guessing bud, that he got his knuckles wrapped for that 'certainty' hence why we now see it on the presentation slides.

Why ?? & I'm thinking he wants to clear the warrants..
prior to perhaps mentioning that what has not been mentioned this time in the updated presentation.

Latest presentation from COPL:

'COPL re-simulated BFU plateau production (January 2021): 7,000 bbl./d at 10 MMCF/d gas injection rate.'

a 40% increase on the previous 1st field's figures.

Check out Holding’s posts from last night,
giving excellent examples of Banks playing the market for the HNW’s
& of possible further TR1’s as the banks then sell again,
with the HNW’s picking up the tab..

Guessing that either;
a. the 57%WI is so good, that ii's &/or HNW players are prepared to throw caution to the wind,
committing before completion, or of the '..£50M minimum requirement..'
or
b. there's been a possible leak.
We know that the lender ( #1) has been disciplined & that they've kept their dealings with AM, v.quiet for over a month now.

Kinda hints of the probability of another deal, with further lenders (not so quiet) who are perhaps now in the game.

0.1% ? that's what you see with one eye closed. Now convert that figure to a % using the free-float..

I'd be shy of expecting any quick news on funding;
this smells of yet more deals being done, for which the news has leaked to the big boys.
Half expecting this to stay low, v.low, whilst the ii's/HNW players all accumulate.

We are now all sat in the prime seats. Is a v.nice place to be.

The ii's are now playing to a different metric,

there is now no waiting till an mc of £50M, prior to the big boys joining the game.

This will assist in opening the flood gates.

As example of CNOOC's ambition:

https://cnoocinternational.com/operations/europe/uk

Lol, how many examples of 'wholly owned' ??

Agreed Hoping.,

Now imagine that CNOOC wanted to stay in the game, their 15%WI then entered via COPL.

Wouldn't get too worried about any possible 'Wonga' dealings with our largest ii:
doodling some figures for Hadron Capital :

COPL at 9.6B OS & they hold 10.87% c.1.05B OS.
Presuming all that equity was collected on latest fund raise at 0.2p, so, costing £2.1M
Presuming therefore, access to 0.525B OS when converting 0.26p warrants, costing £1.364M.
Total costings £3.464M
An sp of 1p then gives the owner of 1.575B OS a nice cool £15.75M.

Hadron are also in another stock, funding a crypto 'miner', to the tune of 4.61%
They came in early 2019, with sp at c.5p & mc <£20M.
The mc had very recently then peaked at £1B... and they've still not cashed in yet.

Was there a recent reference to an ii being based in the Cayman's ?
Doodling on the phone, but had thought I'd seen an earlier reference to another ii based off-shore (out-with of Gib) ?

Like a good game of poker, CC. But perhaps better. Then keeping a straight face whilst you gently strengthen those Atomic aces.

Some good Pi’s getting concerned on the ‘background noise’ & looking at deleting. This is similar to tinnitus where there is no cure. Its then mostly psychological; learn to switch off, ignore the noise. Its all part of the game. The below summary then allows the Pi’s to strengthen their hand, assisted by reminders/links-to/ or giving good directions for the imagination to then explore & should help see most thru the coming games. Should be a very interesting week. One which hopefully sees the Pi’s take a fair share of the house.

An excellent recap, Daecon.

Cc’s point is valid, but i would omit it.
It can then be brought up during the week on any queries of the current state of play, ie, CC’s ‘linear’ estimate from the Dec.2020 output thru till the est. CPR 2022 output, combined with the rns stating that AM has already begun working in partnership with the Powder River Basin staff on increasing output.

A wee bit psychology again, in keeping the report as brief as possible then expanding on the facts/figures at later intervals, which brings the reader back again to the report.

As it currently stands though... Nice one.

Lol.
but is usually a good out-come, with a win-win for both sides..
the 3rd party takes the credit & you get the task done.

Suspect you may have to use a wee bit reverse psychology if you want the answer Eddy.

Some peeps may know the answer & some peeps are adversely shy in passing on their knowledge. That quality of person, may occasionally respond if there’s an opportunity for them to take the credit.

Next time, try state a wrong answer as being correct, whilst waiting on any possible holders of ‘inside’ info, to then post a link to the answer. A lot of peeps in this game have shallow dispositions.

I’m with you on this one, December the 1st was quoted as the ‘starting point’ so Feb 28th seems fairly reasonable. But also, really not too fussed, as when the prize is this good, you don’t walk away on minor hiccups. It could indeed be delayed. Lol, but Atomic Senior’s financials could be a mess, eg. large bar tabs, hookers & coke, all still left open, but suffice that there will be considerable effort being done to find a conclusion.

Bob.,

The POO imo may see a seismic shift,

Everyone globally has seen the effects of loss of oil/energy in the lower states, with Biden now calling an emergency. Oil & gas now trading v.high locally there.

10pm last night & the crypto world then saw bitcoin getting evaluated at $1T. (Trillion) for a commodity that theoretically does not exist.

OPEC & Russia will recognise the value of a rare commodity & may adjust output accordingly. It use to be that a 10% reduction in bod was enough to then put the POO into triple figures (the 20% loss in oil output in the States has seen ‘emergency’ reactions).

My wild card.... the adults in the O&G world sit down & react accordingly.

Harry’s 10:41 gets nearest to the first step for me, up to & including the 5p on future increase in the %WI assets.

How do you buy out an O&G giant (mc of $450B) of their 15% share (c.$5M revenue last year, before deductions) & im suspecting AM will again play a blinder ?

Eddy.,

I’m cool with that. Every two years or so, one comes across an O&G stock that appears to have serious potential. At which point, all the reference manuals are then dusted off & a myriad of complex equations are then guesstimated at, all in the vain attempt at trying to work out an evaluation. The PE is an interesting figure; USA O&G sector is evaluated at a PE of 16.5, and this asset has a lot less capital expenditure needed than other O&G, which imo, then puts PE higher at c.20. Is all indeed perhaps a wee bit tedious (Rolling., is possibly correct in taking his evaluations from 2017 candlesticks) but there are a few figures that can’t be adjusted. I posted an earlier equation of COPL’s previous figures (POO in 2009 was c.65bbl) but you can then see what the market evaluates 25,000bod at. We then have to try input sentiment, at which point even the best investment bankers still get the IPO figures wrong.

Harry, we raised £9M OS at 0.2p which then gave 4.5B OS. That 4.5B OS then gave the holders a 2 for 1 entitlement to a single warrant of 0.26p, which works out at 2.25M additional shares, putting totals at c.11.85M OS then your est. dilution for Atomic Senior’s shares, so hence i was guessing c.12.5B OS

The big question is though... how do we access the other 43%WI, & at which point im thinking, rinse & repeat, so my earlier 6p (Costa on the brain) may be somewhat reduced. That will probably change though if i throw in a few extra sugars. Enjoy.

Thanks Tiburn (apologies on earlier spelling),
keeping the figures conservative is beneficial to all.

Should we then obtain 100%WI then your est.$800M mc looks achievable.
Input an est. 12.5B OS and a figure of 6p+ would be a very nice wow factor.

Enjoy the day peeps,
I feel some illicit Costa treats coming on..

I believe Tilburn to be a genuine Pi, I would simply ask him to put in conservative figures when doing his otherwise excellent calcs.

Once peeps get their heads around the significant increase in value that the 140% dilution for obtaining 57%WI had given, they will then maybe start contemplating the options for accessing the other 43%WI....