RE: Interesting week ahead6 Mar 2021 21:21
Asmalik, the figures for Atomic have been collated by the bb and are posted almost every 2nd day by Daceon. This gives an approximate sp value of 1.5p to 2.0p, when the deal goes through, which may be a conservative figure but was considered by the bb to be a reasonable figure.
I suspect though, you are asking what happens if we acquire 100%WI of the BFU & the CC fields ?
Suspect that the markets would then use the CPR production figures (as apposed to the more recent in-house simulator modelling figures). You could then obtain an approximate NPV 5 year forecast, using 2500bod as avg. for 2021, then 5000bod for 2022, & the CPR final figure of 7000bod for 2026. Putting in linear values for the intervening 2 years, then produces a net cash flow of $609M using $65/bbl. inputting the debt fig. of $26M, then gives an NPV of $587M (£420M). The market capital will be less than this as is dependent on several more metrics, but the unknown quantity ‘sentiment’ may then see it increase.
Say, 2p for Atomic’s 57%WI,
then the full 100%WI would come in c.3.5p to 4.0p when using 12B OS.
It is though always about the Story, which then brings significant value to the mc.
IF the production figures then matched the in-house estimates (a wee bit significantly higher than CPR) I suspect you would then perhaps see 7.0p being achieved on Atomic alone, as apposed to my current calcs for Atomic(57%WI) % OPL’s 15%WI, then having a combined sp c.7.0p
I hope this helps bud, but is I don’t see CNOOC or the NOP selling their WI in the BFU & CC.
It does though, perhaps give an approximate value, on what would be needed to realistically buy out the other 2 parties...
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