Member Info for dougb189

Panama.,

Tilburn’s metrics are good; the loans reduce the amount of tax that has to be paid, small development & small team costs, But the figures shout caution. No matter how you dress it up; PE of 10/17, etc, you are then being sold the figure of 10p for the 5000bod. That using his figures 10B OS, is an mc of $1B+ for 5000bod.
Lol, but $60bbl x 25,000bod, then being sold for $500M, does it not ring any bells ?!

Tilburn’s metrics are good, but the figures are all in shorter’s territory.

Tilburn’s metrics are good, but the philosophy is Totally wrong.
Advertise the excellent circumstances we currently have, and advertise it sensibly.

Yaught.,
I have previously posted what I thought would be good figures on 57%WI incorporating the CPR figures, of an est. NPV 5 years giving $285M (£202M) and of the est. figure of OS of 12.5B (inc. 0.26p warrants), from which I’ll look at a spike in sp up to 2p.
It’s the philosophy bud, if you start selling wow figures of 10p, you open up the stock to massive shorts, when the wow does not fully materialise.

Any ‘sensible’ estimates as apposed to ‘wow’ estimates for the day traders?

99.9% of the Pi’s frequenting this bb, simply refuse to acknowledge the warrants and this is then easily abused.

Be honest with your assessments. Would you buy your nearest & dearest this stock and the answer is yes, and then explain the ‘sensible’ estimates why.

Just be very careful on those wow estimates. You then massively leverage the shorts when the day-traders are only left with 57%WI.

10B shares ?! Lol.

Recognise that 57%WI, inclusive of the warrants, is an incredible start. Then Advertise that. Anything that then comes afterwards is then the wow factor, but don’t be putting these wow figures down as your ‘sensible’ estimates. Just be careful peeps.

Pop.,

I think you may find that you have interpreted that, totally wrong...?
Chill bud, is all good.

He’s played an absolute blinder so far;
Cost to COPL of a very impressive £28M for a 57% share of 2 fields forecasted to produce 5000bopd in 2022, rising to 7000bopd in 2026.
Some might say, his dealing skillsets have returned

AM will be actively looking at further M&A’s.
The numbers for the 5 year approximation of NPV shows that AM is still falling short.

$285M NPV does Not get AM back into the oilers Small Cap league, he’s still c.$15M short. That I suspect will be the motivation to acquire the other 43%WI. With Atomic only then we are still very much Minnow League. This was a guy who’s previous dealings with RBS then saw $1B worth of loans being looked at to cover 8 licenses. (Then putting COPL into the mid cap’s territory c.$2B). The toxic Fanny Mae episode then scuppered that. Lol, but AM still needs to pull his finger out.

ii’s will now be sitting up & watching v.closely.

Priority 1 would be acquiring Atomic's 57%WI of the 2 fields.
Oct.2020 CPR then gives Atomic's P2 oil reserve evaluation of $185M on a POO of $40, which will be an important metric that the ii's will be looking at. We are now 50% up on those P2 figures.

The ii's will be looking at the probable NPV figures, taken from next 5 years of trade:
COPL's Atomic 1st year [end of 2021] est. say 1500bod, x 60$, x365. c.$32.8M
2nd year [2022 with CPR highlighting totals 5000bod] 57% c.2800bod, x $60, x365. c.$61M
CPR then gives a 5th year [2026] calculation, when the 2nd field plateau is reached,
bringing totals to 7000bod with our 57% c.4000bod, giving x$60, x365. c.$87M.
(years 3 & 4 inputs are then calculated linearly).
Inputting the cost to COPL of $40M, plus the 5 years cash flows then gives an NPV c.$285M, c.£200M.

AM will be prioritising this.
Everything after is a bonus, albeit quite a significant bonus.

Getting a good feeling peeps;
Suspecting, that the warrants are now being released...

Thanks all on the good info, a few years short before being allowed a ‘proper’ smoke, but this seems an excellent intermediary!

Lol, John, I don't think I could name 5 stocks, let alone pick 5 winners.
I will say though, COPL will be at the top of the leaderboard, quite soon.

I'm not a full time investor bud. My thing, is simply enjoying being outside & working in that environment. That is no longer permissable, so this is 1 way of killing time. Last year's low prices was then a lucky opportunity, with only OPL on the horizon, so that also gave the opportunity to switch off for the next 12 to 24 months, lol then up came Atomic. I'm no a big fan of sitting here whilst the sun is shining outside. I generally tend to look at 2 to 4 year plans for individual investments, which currently includes 2 M&A outfits (which this may compliment) and also anything, that is blockchain. Health monitoring & the privacy of patient data, will eventually be done on block-chain. Likewise global finances will utilise it more & more,, until such time (2 to 3 years I'm guessing) that the old-school financiers accrue sufficient holdings and at which point they will resume shorting.

My cred, is not good enough to name anything. I enjoy the occasional flutter and is that I take any losses on the chin. I don't whine about it and likewise I'll not have peeps whining to me about their losses. Life's too short for that bud. Enjoy the ride & I would only suggest to keep away from short-cuts. Nurture your own instincts, rely on nobody. GL.

Thanks Leathal.
Shaa., many do fold, but there are also some good investing opportunities during these initial stages. Allow me to pontificate (Sunday afternoon & the hoteleries are all padlocked) but there are I believe some relevant snippets, applicable.

I’ve perhaps been rather fortunate in my dealings in O&G.
& it is ALL recorded (but best ignore the late Friday night ‘hic’ posts).
Brief summary; cleared a mil on LGO in my 1st year trading.. told the BB I was retiring at 6.8p with a 7 figure account, the stock then crashed at 7.2p & I got severely harangued as “you are the shorter”. That was Then traced to a hedge-fund Billionaire who operated out of.....Gibraltar.
A good sign for us & also a bad sign, be wary of ott. At 7.2p the value of that company had been OTT. Just be very Very careful on who’s ramps during the next few weeks.
2 years later then was a repeat performance on 88E., oil at $20b & we was going fracking, lol, but the metrics were v.good, inc of PaulB. Lady Luck was good.
& a year later was again a repeat performance on AST inc. some dodgy TR1’s as I went v.heavy, whilst the paperwork only showed 3%, but for a short time, owning 10% of Slovenia’s possible oil output was a real good giggle down the pub.

Lady Luck & my previous O&G experience kept me straight, as did the very good inputs from the BB’s. All of these stocks were vastly undervalued until the drill results came through. It is the exact same on here. We are days away from acquiring 800bod.

Sure, **** can happen, but is that we don’t then flood the bb on negative sentiment. Dropping a £100k is difficult but it is part & parcel of the game. Dropping say, 1/2 a mil on a health monitor would perhaps be classed as rather stupid esp., with no hedges in place, unlike here with OPL & a healthy bank account to fall back on (Health [wrist] Monitors will become the future of NHS interface with clients, specifically diabetics & the obese (perhaps even inc. COVID vaccine passports), but sadly not on my pennies). One doesn’t waste time sorely lamenting or thinking up imaginative ways in which to BBQ the CEO. If so, lamenting is perhaps reserved for missing the Big one; an O&G M&A outfit, mc £4.5M & was seriously considering ‘silently’ picking up 10%. . End result, outfit was sold within 4 years for a cool £280M. That was a nice flag; it told that if you do dream big & are in the right place at the right time, hedge a little (spread your stocks) then there are opportunities. We just have to keep our eyes open. We don’t lament losses, we learn & then we move on. Neither do we post negatively on a stock that we hold. There are still some wonderful opportunities around, and this could very well be one of them. Look for the leaks.

Lol, okay...who’s got the Cajun sauce?

If the good news comes/leaks eg. perhaps the warrants getting converted, or confirmation RNS’s, then 0.5 will be easily acquired. On any good news, the MM’s will be out of their depth, for a short period. There is no holding back an avalanche of buys when it arrives. Your voices that provide the good chat on here, will simply be drowned out. Its simple market metrics.

The MM’s will therefore have done their homework in preparation:
Atomic’s 57% of 1400bod at c.$50/bbl giving c.$15M/year.
They will then have taken note of the strong positives, & of the Ryder Scott report of the ongoing field developments with plateau c5000bod/2022.

Their initial ceiling figure will factor in negative sentiment & profit taking. A low risk guesstimate then sees me looking at 1p. The MM’s can anchor to this imo whilst the warrants take the mc from £96M thru to £120M. The daily surges though will see significant spikes above till all settles & a better pic emerges of exactly how much bod has AM acquired.

Conversion of the $4M gratuity to Atomic Senior will be done using last 5 days prices on completion of deal.
That then puts your sp 0.5 (4 days x 0.5) + (1 day x 1.0)/5 then gives 0.6p as price that the $4M gratuity then converted at. Then gives c.5% of COPL to Atomic Senior. I would suspect though that once this starts moving then a higher average price than 0.5p will be seen (0.7p) perhaps reducing Senior’s stake to 3%. It sounds poor if Only Atomic is considered, but If the NPL & the CNOOC holdings are also acquired, then that 3% is still a respectable gratuity.

A nice buy.
This will be the week to watch the trades.
Either way, will now be very telling.
A couple of nice RNS's would be enough.

Suspecting that 1st up, we might see a warrants RNS;
any good news usually leaks.

Strange times Palmer... Busy on here, posting 3hrs after one normally retires, would be one of the joys of being incarcerated in these strange times.

I suspect that CC’s interpretation, as per your’s, are far closer to the mark than my interpretation of ‘interest’, but is I like thinking aloud and AM’s compilation of word salads, entertains that.

Lol, I don’t get too paranoid on the details & is that I’ve never been excessively excited either on the macro technicals. Lady Luck has a soft spot, I guess.

Chrita., I’m old school bud as are the majority of the posters who post the ‘chat’ on this bb, so on here it would be disrespectful to cross ramp. Old school though, soooooo. There is though a simple trail of bread-crumbs & so this would take you all of 2seconds to locate. Apologies on it being kinda like a word salad but hey...
Lol, & enjoy the day peeps.

I suspect they would, given that AM is rather cavalier in his approach to communications. CC appears quite sharp at dotting the i’s & crossing all the t’s & may say otherwise. But I’d be thinking that AM may go ahead, as I believe the Canadian market is nicely primed to move up to the next increment. Anytime next week though would suffice.

CC.,

From 8th Jan RNS
‘....The Funds will secure the purchase of 15% of Atomic's working interest in all of Atomic's leasehold interests. In the event of non-completion, COPL would retain this interest...’

You will possibly agree that the average Yank is a wee bit more astute than the average Brit when it comes to dealing in equities, the end result of which is that we are kept in the dark on how many monitor the LSE, but we can draw parallels with similar set-ups across the pond as they do provide stats. An example of one of their chat rooms would be Stockwits and from which it can then be easily read, that as of yesterday 10,000 log-ins were aptly watching a small UK ‘mining’ company. That particular company looks like it will do well hence perhaps why the added interest. It does though highlight very well the power & depth of the chat rooms.
You underestimate wildly, the silent traders.

But then wildly, appears to be regularly tapped into?

Without the chat then there is no sentiment.
Without the sentiment then there is no emotion.
The candlesticks are then used to chart that emotion.
Any two-bit trader worth his salt, would recognise the value of simple chat.

The hedged bet would say that if we do plummet, it will as stated affect the day traders but a total wipe out & that’s a No. The $8M paid is refundable should the deal fall thru & AM is only just getting warmed up on the M&S trail. A nice hedge to have.

Eleets.,

you are correct in that on completion of transfer of the ownership of Atomic we will then also own 66.7% of Cole Creek.
The current planning is for that to then to start developments, once the plateau (5000bod+) has been reached on Barron Flats.
The forecasted production plateau for Cole Creek is then c.3,500 bod by 2026.

Friday RNS ?!
& then have the weekend spoilt by a barking mad wolf chewing on all the spelling mistakes ???
Lol