Member Info for dougb189

Lol, spitting my tea out that someone (CC.’ 21.57!) has the temerity to point out the elephant that’s standing in the corner of the room. I’d disagree though with the ‘.. Atomic could go back to market and seek a potentially much higher price. ..’ which would be in line with the company spin that ‘old oil man looking to retire’, but Not in line with the old adage that ‘old oil men never retire’ & input into that a fistful of $$$’s to play with as well?!

Nice that the bb has progressed & is now recognising possible elephants. Its behaviour 4 years ago with no one commenting or recognising the consequences of OPEC’s cuts, paralleled to Nig’s upgrades on the Bonga & its other strategically important assets, was somewhat rueful. Sure, today, LB & others of a certain millennial ilk, will again chant their own death laments, but if its sound enough for the ii’s, this will hopefully get over the line, this time.

Nice production figures from yesterday’s posts. The 10” feeder pipe that was coming off the Brenda is perhaps a dream too far, as was the almost completed purchase of the whole Balmoral PV. Lol, the game needs serious poker players and we need a serious player (21.57 hit the bullseye). Can the old flame though be relit.. GLA.

Timing references then become interesting, with the competent person’s report of 1st October 2020, looking to have originated from June’s latter two fund raises. July’s fund raise (same two associates of 20+yrs, from the O&G E&P background) & also its debt (wages) for equity swap, with AM then acquiring another 40M+OS, perhaps both showing confidence in the initial feedback from the new O&G D&P project that Ryder Scott were then commissioned for assessing. An approximate 8 month time frame then seems to be about par for the corporate hound course. Lol, time indeed will tell, but the next few years will perhaps now have a few more sitting up & watching carefully. GLA.

CND., the $4M worth of equity stock is not due to be handed over to the retiring owner until the deal is fully completed. The ‘end of this month’ for completion of deal was always a variable.

‘Stumbled on ‘ & Lady Luck then getting all the credit ?!
Or perhaps an old-boys network whose peers are still connected to the fields...

He’s already got a pretty good team he can use and that will soon be expanded, giving extra development potential.

Some mud hounds though just live for the exploration & perhaps some of that Third World wahhallah. A corporate hound would perhaps be the new breed of leader that is needed, in these strange times.

Lol, minor concerns as either way, both disciplines looking quite promising, with OPL’s potential being a possible game changer as would any further Atomics II & III.

‘.. It would be best if the company announced the 100% .
I am thinking of any pitfalls to announcing 100% ownership.
Anything less will be seen as a bit of a let down...’

There was a quite a bit of excitement on the Atomic notice and it was not just from the upgrade which would come with being a producer. There then existed the possibility that AM was aiming at broader horizons; perhaps to try & emulate the successes of the current North Sea’s most celebrated investor, namely Andrew Austin. AA with a background in management consultancy followed by developing IGAS, then followed by setting up RRE, & its 6 acquisitions resulting in it morph from a £4.5M cash shell, to then being sold 4 years later for £250M, was a good act to follow, & there was then some similarities being seen across the pond, with AM’s recent handiwork. Could there be in the future a similar MO? And at which point the 100% WI becomes less significant.

Let’s face it, IF it does all get successfully wrapped up in one loan, would AM get recognition for it or would the market assume he perhaps got lucky, as apposed to say, 1st acquiring Atomic, letting the dust settle, secondly obtaining NOP’s % share of field, then finally obtaining the Chinese %, in effect building up market sentiment (over 3 separate acquisitions) & which we could all agree currently appears to be somewhat lacking.

As pitfalls go, it is rather negligible. Wether there’s only a 57% share, or a 84% share, or the full 100%WI, there will still be significant gains for all to enjoy. There is though some Interest on if this was a one off fluke, or if perhaps there is also a similar US market of stressed & cheap stocks, awaiting a competent management development team to bring in development..

Was therefore a wee chuckle at those promoting $100+ for a barrel of oil, which (a) seems rather fanciful & (b) is not one wishes for when hoping to make a killing from a distressed market.

Nice one Charlie, is much appreciated. AM comes across as brimming with confidence.

Was a wee laugh at ‘conspiracy theorists’.

With a CEO known for reneging on his written words, it is then cool for the PI to keep an open mind, or to elaborate extensively on possible knowns & possible unknowns. Lol.

Much appreciated & is good to see AM enjoying the buzz.

CC.,

I’m suspecting that the securities that have been allocated to Ireland are the same units that triggered the TR1. Hadron’s subsidiary Alpha being based there, is for me too much of a coincidence, so i suspect the main office then did the TR1 filing to the FCA.

The 2 new Hadron ‘board’ members who have previous with Royal Bank Canada London, are both affiliated directly with Hadron Capital LLP & is i’m struggling to find background info of the ‘director’ who controls Hadron Alpha Select Fund. My suspicion is that Alpha’s acquisition may then have triggered Hadron Capital to also dabble, but relatively small sizes... they do appear to be quite an aggressive investment outfit, as seen by their 4 members commission fees.

Guessing that Hadron’s subsidiary, Hadron Alpha, who are based in Ireland, are also getting ready to party, based on their £2M investment, giving a significant £1M on every 0.1p increment...

The numbers mostly tie, but a couple of wee anomalies, as per COPL.
Notification to the Canadian FCAA that securities were bought by foreign owners.

A total of $12M raised, equivalent to £9M, as per RNS of 8th jan.

Anomalies seen in the $1.75 selling price of the ‘units’ & in the second batch warrant conversion 0.2p, but again it’s highlighted in previous RNS that the 2nd placement was done ‘on the same terms & conditions as the 1st placement’. Ie. at 0.2p per OS & 0.26p per warrant. The higher selling price $1.75 then multiplied by the number of shares issued c.3.5B. An explanation would be good. Lol.

Interesting oversees partners in Ireland & Switzerland. Possible delayed TR1 from Ireland?

Market currently evaluates Atomic at £12M, as per the rise in mc.
Which is not bad for 120bod.

IF the other players are then bought out, that figure becomes transformational,
And likewise any future dilutions are then less intrusive.

Where did that '$4M worth of stock' originate from?
You have an energy company evaluated at c$120 to $180M, then purchased at half price,
There was c£40M worth of loans & debt,
The owner was happy to walk away with.... and I'm guessing he quoted $10M. A Nice Round Figure.
AM scraped together $8M cash, then offered the $4M worth of stock at closing price on completion of the deal.
Sure its balsy, but that's oil men.

Some decent RNS's will then see a swing.

I'd agree shaa that with the Atomic ideal almost done. that your 0.5p would be a fair price..
c.£55M/yr., from 800bod, 57% of 1400,
& then with a v.good prospect of tripling 1st field output to 5000bod in 2022.

My suspicion on AM's elevated excitement is he recognises that with the other players current circumstances, he's in with quite a good chance in which to acquire full 100%WI, & so probably being chased as we speak, through some further equity deals (all 3 players equity, hopefully then coming in at around 10% of £100M mc, putting us close to 12B OS ?)

The December figures would be relatively small (c.$100K) but from which the MM's can then reasonably calculate cash flow prior to all the staff expenditures etc.

Chinese 15% is currently worth 210bod less costs (say c.$2M annually) so there may be a concerted effort to get a deal done to obtain 100%WI, prior to developing the field’s full potential (which would then see that 15% holding with an estimated 750bod in 2022).

The option would then be to offer equity, say 2% worth of stock in a future £100M Canadian outfit which puts emphasis on lifting the mc prior to any deal completion (such that the dilution/s then do not significantly impinge on the value of the ii holders 10%) necessitating some decent RNS’s.

Suspecting next RNS might be an update on COPL’s December revenue figures which would then assist the MM’s in putting a revised value on the company..

Biden is recognised as being a bit of a Chinese puppet and will perhaps cancel the removal of foreign ownership, dependent on his security advisors.

Chinese took possession of in excess of 50% of the North Sea through various stock holdings for 2 primary reasons. The 1st was the long-term strategy in energy reserves & the 2nd was for the PR benefit ie. their companies names get entered into the subconsciousness of the indigenous. It is very subtly done but apparently quite effective. They do seek respectability.

Their PR at the moment though is flat on the floor; globally and everyone currently thinks they are dog poo.

They will not wish to be seen as antagonists but they won’t let go of their strategic holdings too easily. Suspect that their holdings will either get passed over to an umbrella company (South American?) or they may be quite happy to take a holding in a Canadian outfit...

Strong suspicion is that there will be a further dilution.
But I'm hoping it can all be kept to within around 10% of the current stock c.11B (OS + warrants)
which then sees us at topping out at close to 12B OS.

AM will be prioritising access to the remaining 43% of field ownership, for which I see deals being done that is similar to the $4M worth of stock, that the owner of Atomic is acquiring, possibly on the 31st January, yet possibly on the 28th February.

On a positive....Perhaps the Chinese interest with their 15% holding might then opt for say a 2% holding of a £100M outfit. They do collectively own over 50% of all the North Sea assets.

IF the Chinese play hardball, that 15% holding, currently 210 bod (say c.$2M annually)
then effectively becomes 750 bod, as and when the field is tweaked...
so, the equivalent of 50+% of today's figures.

Possible risk otherwise of a similar long & drawn out Essar scenario.

Payment of the $8M gives 15% of Atomic's share in both fields.
(120 bod, hence paying the wages)
'..us at 12B shares..' is a similar guesstimate, ie 11.5B is inclusive of stock + warrants,
& with an MC of say c.£100M, then the additional $4M then working out hopefully, at close to 0.5B shares.

2nd step. 57% of 1400 generating 300k.bo/year, so a cash flow of c.$15M annually... initially.
& so paying off the $40M debt over 10 years
3rd step. 100% of 1400 bod (before the 'long stop date'?)
& a v.healthy cash flow, which can then see the fields being tweaked & output tripled by 2022 as per field report.

Shouston,
15% ownership on first interpretation, had been somewhat alarming.
The figures currently working out at 210 bod, and as a minor susbsidary holding, this would then appear as a cheque, quarterly or perhaps once a year, say c.$2M annual after deductions. A cash generator, yes, but already ear-marked.

Then IF all else goes t!ts up, the COPL management lifestyle will not be affected. An excellent investment, with the board hedging & looking for confirmed revenue to pay their wages, for the next 40 years. Not a bad return for the 3 directors who put in a month's wages of exactly $10k each. As stated, on 1st interpretation this was rather alarming, for up until yesterday's notice, there was effectively no serious skin in the game, unless of course you equate a CEO investing £150k for a return of c.£16M over the next 40 years, as being a committed player...

Yesterday then brought in the Canadian big boys thankfully with some serious skin in the game, and at which point alleviated a substantial amount of concern of yet further hostilities towards shareholders.

Fingers crossed and the game continues to play out;
2. 57% holding prov. due 31st Jan.
3. the remaining 43%, and possibly extending the notification of '2' up until the 'long stop date' of Feb 28th., ie. wrapping all the concerns into one parcel..

The board will be well pleased so far... fields with a 40 year life and a minimum 210 bod.
Lets hope the team that were previously sitting on 35,000 bod in the North Sea, are soon back up to their previous game strengths.

CC,
For a PI then you should declare when a holding reaches 3%
For current stock numbers, then a holding of 289M+ requires notification to FCA,
But with the additional 1.5B shortly coming into the mkt., 3% then equates to 334M+
(Perhaps keeping the buyer incognito; there’s a delay permitted of several days if notifying).
A rare opportunity perhaps when the MM’s are being v.cautious or are simply behind the curve...

i think it was pre-planned but Only for provoking a reaction ;
Permit confirmation 'within x weeks', is a good result.
(& i'm still extremely cautious on Any of those Eurocrats).

Also some good vibes being heard here :
word on the street is now "..update this month.."

Summer is still sizzling.

Gaffy, FYiS (Fer Yer i's Only. lol)

was a nice email last Monday a.m. from CH, (very shortly after the Poo hitting the fan) & was C's still confident 'tech issues with wells could be overcome, if permits available, but continues to see wether can find a partner from those remaining in the review' & the rest you know bud... (One of the reasons i'm a Big Euro sceptic & that ex German Chancellor now over-seeing the imported gas into Europe, for Putin).

No apologies from me peeps. Is i enjoy looking after my investments & a wee bit craick.

Ouch!

Someone is now showing their true colours.

'digitus impudicus' was perhaps relevant after all.

Lol, try chill & try enjoy the day wee man.