Member Info for dougb189

CC., its the frustration energy bud, being locked down during my week off.

I just need AM to have all his cards on the table by the end of April,
so that I can resume misbehaving again in the real world.

There may be another explanation:

Hadron paid £2,100,000 for 1.05B OS.
They've now just sold 413,200,000 shares at say 0.33p, generating £1,363,000.
Returning c.70% of their initial investment.

They still have access to 525,000,000 warrants at 0.26p, requiring... £1,365,000

If all goes wrong on Monday, then just need to unload remaining 636,800,000 >0.12p
& they then still retain their full deposit.

It just looks like a very good hedge.

Hadron have a 5% holding with a crypto mining stock, which they've held for c. 2 years.

From Cathy, reference Cuda:

‘’....When we close Atomic will have a net zero working cap deficit. As well Cuda has paid off is receivable to Atomic..”

Interpreted as we would pick up the $8M IOU (hence reduced debit fig’s)
and that Cuda were still very much ongoing...

I like what you are saying Cdn., but would the creditors be perpetrated to wait..
Some previous calcs (now in limbo in a frozen heed). showed that it would take around a year at the existing flow rates, for the NOP to then become solvent again...

Just a thought.

Cdn., the good analogy would be that when a tenant stopped paying, there was no legal recourse to then evict. Sadly & the ex’s brothers from the Gorbals, could not be utilised for the NOP..

Lol, frost bite is being outside this morning, & some figures need correcting:

1st part was a good est. c.$1M/month production cost to COPL for P1
2nd part, should read c.$1.75M/month cost to COPL for the P1+P2 developments.
($7M & $3.5M was trying to work out the funding for next 2 months v fund raise).

Then have to cross check these CPR estimated monthly costs with AM’s recent presentation of a netback fig to COPL of a cool $44.5 for each barrel (at $62 WTI) which then approximately ties in.

A wee bit frost bite/wind chill today & not enough caffeine.
Lol, but my fingers are currently frozen..
Spring is in the air though.

Frost bite might be apt for the current sentiment ?!

Charlie, I kept it on the lower estimate.
I think that may change to the higher figure, with the other two big players that are developing in the basin.

Tiburn, the proven reserves development is $23.6M for 2021 as per CPR, therefore c.$2M/month, which then works out at around $1M/month cost to COPL. We will though pay all production costs and when the pay cheques are given out (guessing, each quarter) we will then get back a refund c.43% on those costs.
The $7M/month figure is the projected CPR development costs for the proven + probables, which then incorporates the P2 figure of 5000bod. AM’s in-house figures may then require a revised estimate but that’s to be verified. CPR est. shows it will cost COPL c.$3.5M/month after they have reclaimed the production costs from other two partners.

Lol, just keep biting at AM, he’s way too sensitive,
and results in that he works a lot harder (a wee bit like Ironman).

There will be a few variables shaa, the ‘plus 40%’ increase is quickly taken to almost a 100% increase on some in-house projections. Likewise from Tilburn’s post, although we pay for all production costs, we can, currently, claim back c.43% from the other two players.
Hopefully though, gives an approximate insight into the next couple of months.

The P2 would be the 5000bod CPR estimate,
then bringing in c.$120M/annual.

The in-house figures then projecting plus 40%.

Miscible/ future development costs
2021 Proved reserves $23.6M. Proved + Probables $40.4M

As per CPR, table 3.3
Grapths (from in-house) then highlight an almost 2month hysteresis lag prior to dividends from improved flow.

From the CPR table of est. production costs, then approximately 2 months of the $23.6M estimate is needed, ie. c.$4M for the proven reserves ie 1400bod.

Going for the P2 straight away, then requires c.$7M to get us thru the 1st two months production, prior to getting a good flow. As per recent fund raises...,

-unforeseen acts of AM.

CC., that $44.5 was from one of the presentations.
I ran it thru an on-line NAV calculator and inputted the debt.
Then ran it cross-checking against the proper CPR figures & was then reasonably pleased with the match.

The 3p figure at today's 1.4B OS, then seems to correlate with a few others interpretations.

7000bod at 5 years (as per CPR) giving an approximate NPV.

'..You could then obtain an approximate NPV 5 year forecast, using 2500bod as avg. for 2021, then 5000bod for 2022, & the CPR final figure of 7000bod for 2026. Putting in linear values for the intervening 2 years, then produces a net cash flow of $609M using $65/bbl. inputting the debt fig. of $26M, then gives an NPV of $587M (£420M)...'

dodgy is a CFO who states that it was "prudent" to send a last minute, rushed, garbled, panicked RNS to the market.

Hopefully AM will have another trick up his sleeve, last summer's placings bought the CPR, Xmas placings then bought 15% of Atomic. Lets just wait & see..

its good Charlie;
a couple of minor points, inclusive of, both your CPR 'oil prices' were incorrect
'..If I have the $35 wrong and it’s $39 per barrel..'
$39 was actually the hedge price that Atomic received,
the actual price of the WTI used in the CPR was $41.
There is now only a passing reference to hedges in the planned buy-out,
& that is that there are none currently being used... pinch of salt I guess.

Calc's come up very similar, with 1.55p
but as you've clearly high-lighted this then will fluctuate on sentiment.

I do hope & believe that you will come good CC.

Is good though to put a wee bit dampener on today’s sp,
AM does have history of a double whammy when fund raising.
(His mates then getting a drip feed off the secondary raise).

He does though, also have history of making good use of fund raises.
Last Summer’s unexpected dilutions, did pave the way for a CPR to be paid for...
& the 100% dilution at Xmas from 4.8B to 9.6B, did pave the way for Atomic..

A triple is on the cards, but how it plays out for the next year, will be determined on why yesterday’s funding was done. Fingers crossed bud & try & enjoy!