Member Info for dougb189

Lol, but think I’ve got it, this time..

Reading again, and the February presentation then corrects the December injection figures, ie the previous 8mmcf/d is then amended to 3.4mmcf/d.

We are it appears increasing injection levels by 200%, when we now input 10,000mmcf/d as per most recent updates.

Lol, mind clouded perhaps by a wee bit misbehaving involving illicit ‘border crossings’ to catch up on a nice friend.

After the September 2015 presentation on Icewine, Abman was at that time fairly quiet & like a few others was just slowly accumulating. Avg sp was then c.0.55 to 0.6p prior to 2016 January placing at 0.36p which then knocked back the Lth’s but also gave further opportunity to top up. I believe there was 4 on the bb who then held c.20 to 30M OS each & Abman was one of them. The moment though the pictures of the oil soaked drill-bit was released, he went rather loudly ott on the ramp button & a ‘10p party’. He was a very knowledgeable O&G guy but I suspect that sometimes being too knowledgeable on a subject can then make you blind to other metrics, namely market fundamentals & of what is immediately in front of you. Similar will happen here & it becomes a part of the game to try work out which background poster then steps forward & keeps his/her finger permanently on the ramp button. Interesting stock here though, with a very reasonable prospect of again becoming a billion £ company within a year or two, just on the current plays alone ie. the basin & OPL and we still then have a possible 3rd project that AM has alluded to, so possibly we can expect more than a handful of bb players to keep us all entertained. Possibly the only stock past or present that I’d put a wager on as being able to reach the 10p party & is that I’ve declined the offer on quite a few (88 though may yet see it & I hope it does, there was a good crew on its bb). Once the dust clears here & we are then settled with an mc of a small tier producer, say c.£250M+ then the next targeted field will bring us very close to that 10p party. & at which point, no one will care who is loudly pressing the ramp button.

There’s always been miscible flooding since CNOOC & Chesapeake 1st developed/promoted the technique in the basin. For us it will then just be an increase in the rate of flooding (a pretty fairly significant increase though) so any RNS given is really on a par with a PR exercise..

Can be seen from the gas injection v oil & gas output flows graph, that there is then almost a full month from start of injection to when flow rates start to pick up. But the graph also starts from a zero injection rate and as per AM’s interview, he states the latest flow figure as 1350bopd so it can be seen that Atomic Senior has kept the reservoir pressures fairly well primed.

Putting out a presentation/ interview or an RNS stating that further gas injection has commenced will prime the market, even whilst suspended.

AM got his wellies on & been out in the field with his divining rods looking for that nice whoosh. Lol, but fingers crossed and there is a nice wee rise in flow rates.

As per HFB & guessing that even for an ‘expert’ it would be extremely difficult/rash making any prediction of an accurate oil flow from the few parameters that have been presented so far.

There are 3 available figures relating to miscible flooding as produced by COPL’s presentations and they make for rather convoluted reading.

Dec 2020 presentation Appendix pg.10 shows :
(1) ‘..injection..commenced December 2019 at a constant 8mmcf/d..’
[therefore almost an exact year of injects from when the report issued]
But in the next line down in that report..
(2) ‘...Currently c.750mmcf has been injected..’

A wee bit maths shows that 750 / 365 days = c.2mmcf/d
So a big discrepancy there.
These injections though (either 2mmcf/d or 8mmcf/d) are then stated to have seen a 15% to 20% monthly increase on oil flows with ‘..20% production increase in those wells surrounding the initial injection wells..’

The 3rd inputted figure is from latest February 2021 report, and that states the injection rate will then be 10mmcf/d, so either a 25% increase from the 1st figure, or is a 400% increase on the 2nd figure.

An expert might then be able to rationalise which of the two daily flow rates is more suited to field development...

My suspicion though would be that the lower figure is applicable, which then suggests a significant boost in flows when the quoted 10,000mmcf/d is injected. Lol, fingers crossed & the sink plunger creates a nice loud “Whooosh”.

‘...prudent dilutions..’.

Lol, but that statement from the CFO still makes me wonder wtf is going on with that excess funds.

That’s cool Haha., your 5 year plan is very similar. My target date of 2026 for software issues was formulated earlier this year, so is much appreciated when further up to-date analysis is given.

Fingers crossed but the moment the national lockdown has finished, I can then get back to living a life again, as it is all looking fairly good on here : 2 x O&G, both suspended, both RTO’s, both with a shelf life of c.4 years, 1 x crypto and also with a shelf life of 5 years, and 1 x medical, traditional tumours & again a good shelf life, for which they can all be left to develop.

I appreciate that this is an excellent bb and makes for brilliant & humorous analysis tied into the numerous good links. Hopefully these ‘rambles’ today will assist others in formulating their planning.

‘..IonQ leads the way with 160 cubits...’

Thanks Haha., I’d been thinking/hoping that I wouldn’t need to worry about this until 2026. An exponential increase though appears to be on the cards.

CC., current levels of quantum cpu are about c.60 qubits processing power. The articles show that by 2028 then this is expected to be c.4.4 million qubits, equating to 13.8 GH/sec.

We currently have ASIC’s running at 1000 times that value, at 14TH/sec hence why they see another decade of safe mining. It will obviously pay though to keep an open eye on one’s investment.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2017/11/08/67685/quantum-computers-pose-imminent-threat-to-bitcoin-security/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/googles-quantum-computer-achieves-chemistry-milestone/

The mining algorithms appear to be safe for quite some time as the speed of the ASICS are quite phenomenal. There is then a flip-over point where, if someone or something (quantum) then controls 51% of the mining power that could dictate the security of the blockchain. The speed & power base of the ASICS though appear to be well in front, & estimated to be so till well into the mid 2030’s [as per earlier, putting the ASICS together & allowing them to then create their own ‘quantum’ properties, via self-regulation, a process which tends to see significant evolution after the 20th or so iteration, as seen in self regulating organisms].

Serious issue though as Haha. stated is the elliptical signature algorithm for individuals holding coins but that the theorists state there are ‘anti-quantum safe guards available’. Further nonces perhaps..

There seems to be some correlation there Haha., with the electron quanta’s ‘stepped’ outputs, eg there is no linear progression in output but rather, the quanta then jumps/transposes to another level. Pondering a linear progression in ‘equation difficulty’ for the next 118 years, then sees you quickly running out of ‘difficulty’. Similar then to the quanta, there has to be a stepped progression. Hopefully we again see a significant jump in technology but the current as described ‘stadium sized computer block’ won’t sit too well on the Enterprise. Lol.

Was tempted to suggest that ARB’s computing power then took every twelfth month off.. & so allow the individual 17,000+ CPU’s to ‘self-regulate’ with each other. The 20th generation of code, through self regulating organisms, tends to show astonishing results. Lol, maybe suggest in a few years time.

Reject leveraged oil ? A wee bit narrow thinking there bud.
The bb in general acknowledged that there is a plateau in crypto come late Q3/Q4 v an already tremendous start/spike to the 3rd halving v the logarithmic behaviour as per Matcalfe’s., . so as per any leverage, there are numerous factors to take into account.

Nice thread on quantum computing & the prospect of the codes being smashed in sub 100 seconds. I see that similar already happens in that the daily ‘quota’ c.900 btc’s, occasional gets swamped with today’s computing powers, but then just sees the equation variables made more harder.
Is perhaps then not the variables being changed but the complete equation. Currently some of the hardest equations being derived from some of the easiest formulas eg. z = z (PWR.2) x C, ie. the simple feedback loop, but which then gives infinite probables. Qubits might then come in handy in replicating the original transmission/code.
Nb. Crack the quantum though, and we then crack teleportation, and it’s already known that this then ‘destroys’ the original whilst computing/profiling the subject matter.

5 might indeed be the current figure.

16.98 was the average PE ratio figure for the USA oil sector in 2019, ie. during the last ‘normal’ year, prior to global lockdown.

Suspecting that OPL might not be so important now..

Could be reasonable to think that AM was looking to generate c.25,000bopd to then be used as a stepping stone(s) for that elusive ‘3rd project’.

40% holding of OPL’s forecasted 60-65,000bopd gave c.25,000 bopd.
Which was then (Aug.4th) reduced to 5 - 15%, close to 3,250 - 9,750 bopd,
& AM then immediately sought out another ‘stepping stone’ resulting in Atomic, with its flow rates then making up for the shortfall...? It might suggest that OPL is no longer so strategically important and so perhaps allow the company to develop further on Atomic &/or further fields in America or similar that are more amenable, to again make up that shortfall (the 25,000bopd as a target guesstimate). Should the exploration extension be awarded from the ‘toxic’ NNPC then great, the bopd figures combined will be quite awesome, but suspecting that now & AM will no longer be so heavily reliant on a system tied to a ‘toxic’ regulator.

Further developments on Atomic’s 3 fields may be moved higher on the schedules, chasing that 10,000+ bopd simulator predictions & the associated abundant cash flows. There is though perhaps another, more familiar approach, to enable AM to chase his elusive projects..
With the expected higher than normal P/E ratio (courtesy of the v.low costs in future expenditures needed) then being applied on re-listing, the expected higher mc within a few months of improved gas injections, will again make raising funds from equity an easy option for AM, if he so decides to chase the 3rd project within say, 12 months; The majors are currently off-loading, the forecasted POO will be enticing & the opportunities will generally have a shelf-life limited to less than 12 months, anticipating that all those currently suffering by COVID losses, will then have recuperated financially... suggesting that the clock is already ticking. Should be a very interesting couple of months.

Currently raising the paperwork needed to set up a club AGM for end of next month (excuse my multi-tasking & not concentrating on either) and this necessitates all members being given notice, at least 28 days in advance which is a fairly standard practice. When I queried it with Cathy, she wrote that it would likely have to be done at an AGM or a Special Meeting.

As someone recently posted though, having xx billion shares in circulation does not stop some of the majors from operating (inc. BP). If AM is busy concentrating on finding the BFU’s sweet spot, then I’ll easily forgive him.

The debt/loans will get inputted on several other metrics, inclusive of NAV, COS, eCOS, EBITDA, etc
and will assist in formulating a new mc, almost on par with an IPO, so some quite deep calculations then carried out by the investment bankers / MM’s. Also AM’s “..future dividends..” may have been aimed so as to be included in these calcs.

What ever price is then selected, be it 0.8p or 2.8p or perhaps even further north, this will then get swept aside, by the ii’s & the Pi’s, depending on the value of sentiment.

The forward/future PE ratio is though a fairly good metric by which to try calculate a future value on the company. Again though, market sentiment plays a big part. This then needs a wee impetus from the team, hence “...30% to 50% additional flow rates..” being subtly shouted at AM. Lol, but it should be good.

Lol, but Doug has also inputted a wee error in the number of fully diluted shares, which then brings the quoted sp values down a small bit.

Was going to leave that for the weekend, ie. repost similar computations, but the gist of this evening’s post is to try get across to peeps just how under-valued we currently are...

Thanks Charlie, agree that the flow rate on us re-opening will be quite significant in attracting ii’s & Pi’s.

The market knows that +20% a month has already been achieved, so a wee improvement on total flows from 1350bopd of 30 to 50% might then see the totals range from 1800 to 2000bopd, giving COPL c.1000bopd by end of April.

I’d disagree with your P/E ratio of 5 though, the USA Oil sector average being 16.98

Atomic’s above flow of 1000bopd

P/E = 16.98,
Profit P = 1000 bopd x $45 netback x 360 = $16.2M
where the E equates to EPS = 16.2M ($) / 14.0B (OS) = $ 0.00116 EPS
From which, P/E x EPS gives the sp ($)
16.98 x 0.00116 = sp ($) 0.0196 or 1.4p (nothing else factored in)

Unsure what your ‘..we have gone from x3 to x5..’ was referring to,
But for oil in place, I suspect the analysts will utilise the CPR estimates (x3).

Future P/E (x3) is the more probable estimate used by analysts & then becomes
Profit. 3000bopd x $45 netback x 360 = $48.6M
EPS. 48.6M / 14.0B = 0.00347 ($)
sp from. P/E x EPS.
16.98 x 0.00347 =. ($) 0.0589 ($) = 8.2p

It can be seen to be v.high but this is then using the industry PE average (& hopefully it upsets the doomsday conspiracy theorists!).

The P/E ratio as we know is a variable & as per Tilburn’s excellent comparison with Jadestone Petroleum & its almost $600M debt, the P/E ratio is then in very very low figures. We should hopefully be at the higher end of the scale.

The herd not warming to this is not helped by a small group of eejits, including yourself LB who posted multiple profanities on the morning of the recent dilution, totally incapable of any understanding of financial metrics & Joey totally incapable of working out the basic company fundamentals. His most recent attempts at analysis of company prospects again highlighting an appalling grasp of basics. ‘25p would see the company valued at £2.5B’..... stating in effect that he believes there are only 10B OS. 25p fully diluted, would then see the company mc at slightly north of £4B.

It is, as it always has been, a very speculative stock with many metrics needed for the package to gel together: OPEC, controlling global production levels; POO, sustaining north of $50-$60; licenses/permits, post-covid from Nig.gov; further opportunities, NOP &/or CNOOC &/or marginals, in addition to a whole host of other metrics, not least of which is a helping hand from Lady Luck. A metric scorned by the same quality of eejits who also dismiss the values placed on networking ie the detrimental effect of constant negativities. AM though now seems to be assisted, in his acquiring of Atomic & as previously stated she certainly seems to favour those who put in the hard work. Negotiating the deal at 8pm on New Year’s Eve, adequately covers AM’s commitment to hard graft.

25p would be highly speculative. I’m reminded of a similar 4 year put in place for DL’s LGO; 18 donkeys in the field, each producing 6bopd. Target was to see c.60bopd from each donkey, giving 2000bopd & a nice lil 3-bagger then netting 0.5M. DL then went for the sweet spot & 1st donkey then came up with 240bopd, smashing my 4 year plan in less than 4 weeks, then doubling it in 4 months. The herd would sit up & take notice here, if any improvements about the previous 20%/month was seen. Imagine AM also hitting the sweet spot & reporting a 30-50% increase on flow figures. 25p would then seem not so far away. Lol, but that’s v.speculative.