Member Info for dougb189

Deepwater horizon.. lol, you do realise that we are then only one step short of putting in an offer for Total’s 12% share of the Bonga’s 200,000bopd (a few fields west of OPL) which is on the market c.$700M. Ten times the value of loan we are currently being offered which came about when we had zero production.. lol, I don’t think AM though would be cut out to be a small bit player for others for much longer. And the Bonga’s catering is pretty naff.

That last 2 ducks refusing to plonk their asses on the water

4. What has Arty been up to in his OTHER talks ?
5. What TF is or has happened in Nigeria

Lol. Anymore on the horizon?!

That’s cool Wookie, i too will apologise; not for insinuating there was opinions floating from an empty glass of wine (hey, it was midnight Saturday?!) but is that i took your protestations of hecklings & of bullying as devoid of substance. Bullying on the bb is a no no (apologies again on the teenage speak, but it most eloquently describes) and as a no no, in a very highly charged atmosphere, we all try and amend our inputs accordingly, sometimes erring to close to what some might see as provocation.
(You need to up your game bud, ‘woke’ is not only an accurate reflection of today’s culture but it is also endemic in many investment decisions... Reddit?!)

That slide on audit is a smokescreen,
Lol but AM is just lining up the ducks.

The ‘twaaat’ comment was midday
Your ‘heckling & bullying’ protestations were 9am

So who was the one heckling :
‘.. Keep your knickers on.... wow, your super highly strung huh!....’

& one can only presume your ‘bullying’ was in protest at your opinion ‘this could re-list in a year’s time’ then being classed as absolute poo ?!

Perhaps woke may be a more appropriate monster.

Your postings Wookie are somewhat dubious
You are an alleged oil man yet have contributed nothing
apart from ‘this may be delayed for a year’
Then followed by lots of nonsense, alleging personal attacks
When it was the research that HFB shot down.
The only one throwing personal insults was then easily seen to be yourself. As you are still doing.

‘clever’ was convincing everyone that there was a delay needed for the audit (which was 1st raised in the original December rns). Original ‘delay’ of April 21st + 10 working days, was then thought to incorporate the revised flow rates. Subsequent delay, could be to consolidate those results or Additional news..

‘Overlap scenario being allowed..’
which means that the prospectus has already been approved
(FCA would simply have referred to the finance house that was offering $65M loans)
which then suggests... AM’s wait is news dependent.

The 1st April till c.1st June, two month period, does coincide with the presentation graph showing projected injection rates v oil rates and a more enhanced flow rate. AM’s recently quoted ‘7000bopd plateau over 7 years’ for the 1st field (BFU) was indicated to start near the end of 2021, and may be what he is aiming for, ie a good Forward PE value from the markets (Forward PE for USA O&G E&P was then at 33 in January of this year).

“....Not holding breath re May relist. Things like this always drag on. Wouldn’t be surprised if it was a year or more.. but be great if back by June....”

Without any kind of reference given, then one has to query,
was the experience gained from the bottom of the wine glass? Weekend wine-o’clock’s always seem to bring such great pearls of wisdom.

On a par perhaps with joeys ‘we are fully priced in’ @0.38

4th of May for relisting was just a best estimate from the bb: I believe it was YM who originally factored in the 4 weeks of uprated injections plus the various national holidays at end of April, start of May. It could be earlier or could be later, but is used as a good reasonable estimate. As Charlie highlighted, it gives a stabilisation period, for the increased pressure.

£13M ($18M) placing was on the 8th March, & then a week later in the notice of completion was then mentioned that the company has provided SWP with $9M working capital. Could be that SWP were then directed with working on the uprated condensate injections as soon as possible, maybe a full two weeks before the official 1st April start date.

Lol. How many headers for a perfect storm ?!
We are still sitting with some additional artillery available:

$20M accordian loan for ‘development purposes’
$9M left-over from most recent (£13M) placing
$8M from warrants (2.25B x 0.26p, £5.8M)
$7M from NOP IOU
$5M from Dec.1st till May.1st revenue

Guessing: Am will wait till May 4th, confirm his cash flows, then...pounce. (with a meaty “Grrrrrrr”)

Early news maybe on BFU flow rates this Thursday & guessing it would mostly be dependent on the reservoir pressures & the *cough* completion of AOG audits. The presentation graph shows the timeline for injections and then the delay for uprated flows, but they do appear to start from a zero pressure point yet we now know the pressure was kept fairly constant (c.1300psi?)

There then appears to be a few discrepancies (lol, more COPL word salad) in what the initial $9M deposit covered :
16th December RNS highlighted
‘Initial debt-financed payment: $8M for 15% of AOG’s WI..’,
followed by Cathy (Feb.) who replied that
“ the funds ($9M) were utilised to reduce Atomic’s working capital deficit which was $16M at the time. This was at the request of Atomic’s lender.’
Then RNS 18.03.21 which appears to contradict both of the above
“The Company, through its recent equity financing, has provided SWP with $9M of working capital”

which possibly highlights how the reservoir pressure was able to be nicely maintained & which then suggests the planned increase in injections possibly started earlier than initially decreed...
Thursday just might be interesting but i’ll still appily aim for a May 4th whoopee.

Essar having just spent almost $700M in India on a new downstream gas pipeline providing energy directly to the cities, then being given handshakes by India’s Prime Minister Modi at the opening ceremony, are perhaps on a very good footing at the diplomatic level. Should assist massively to then see that their OPL226 $70M investment does not get forgotten. Essar M’s new E&P boss in early 2020 then oversees the settlement of Essar & Shoreline conflict, within 6 months of being in office. Thinking now that a few diplomatic ears are perhaps being spoken to & also that post-covid, no further excuses from Nig.gov will be entertained.
News could surely drop at any time.
Nice find Guitar.

Iggy Pop’s rendition of Gold “hail to the thief & we’ll keep what’s left tonight” rattling inside ma heed & that quote from the movie of the same name, where Wall St Senior chews off junior ‘..that 15% sounds like nothing But!! it’s 15% of $30B.. & you’re fired..’
lol, perhaps a few parallels here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvs30Ad94xo

Great find Guitar, latest ESSAR website with media updates as recent as 17 Feb 2021, inc. last year’s new appointees of a E&P boss who’s ex-Cairns Energy & hopefully now looking to make his mark.

OPL 226 with a recorded 4 prospective areas of interest & as jiving just posted ‘ESSAR sees one prospect with a planned 18 development wells’.

Lol.. but should Always blow 10% of your winnings, it then keeps the wife/hubby/gf/bf/partner/favourite penguin/errant daughter, in the good books.

Could Ukog have gone even higher than £60M if there had been a more amenable CEO at the helm.., their LTH’s actively shooting it down (but not quite as pathological as some that most here could name but still deeply grievous). O&G E&P & M&A’s seem to be definitely this year’s flavours..

That’s probably a fair statement to make Austin, that many do seem to blindly follow, but I would also suggest that perhaps it is us, the ‘older’ Pi who may be blind to their MO, ie. that they do have a working metric which sees them through eg. networking algos where they know the herd will move in, & so enable them to aim for their 10% profits. Metcalf’s & Fibonacci algos perhaps?

There is though imo a similar number of LTH’s on each of these minnows, which suggests to me there are still Pi’s enjoying trying to work out the metrics. Today’s networking then makes easily available any good info that is sourced, to all & sundry. With more joining the herd, then that part of the market mechanics then results in a more pronounced peak in sp results, for which we & they, simply adjust trading patterns for.

Likwise, those of us who have been fortunate, perhaps also seek a form of networking ie having our names accredited against successful ventures & is maybe why some of us post when trying to suggest to other Pi’s that posting should be as straight as possible, eg. posting undiluted figures whilst simultaneously claiming ‘forward projections’ IMO only discredits Pi’s whilst the mad dingo’s barking at the moon is stacked full of credit worthy titbits that the discerning Pi can enjoy.. Lol, there’s an equation for him, but nobody’s found it yet.

Good luck also Austin, I suspect that if opening at your 0.7-0.8p, there will be quite a few Pi’s & ii’s also hoping to buy. To get your head around the market mechanics, then is perhaps worth looking at the figures in the small print; the attrition rate for O&G companies in the States over the next 5 years is estimated to be c.25%, the O&G E&P sector Forward PE reflects this.

Nice table of peer comparisons last night by our resident mad dingo But he did happen to miss out the only peer that came to mind as of the morning of the 16th December.. namely Andrew Austin’s Kistos, then also a £40M cash shell (so, on a par I thought with our $40M+ offers in loans) and with a 2 to 4 year shelf life (he sold his previous £4.5M cash shell for £280M within 4 years). And as of now, both suspended, both awaiting RTO proceedings. The next 4 years should make an interesting comparison..

Antha, 7p would imv be the most reasonable estimate for the American asset. Would then be a holiday to the, err.. greenhouse. Lol, but if we can’t spend it, then I suspect a fair few of us may yet see a small percentage of our pf move towards 20+p.

*cynical ! Twice over. Lol