Member Info for dougb189

Thanks Charlie, was a couple of nice spread sheets that you put together to aid the Pi with the various metrics involving the PE ratio. I would though go for a more cautious outlook than the recently high-lighted figures then needed for sp. 65p!
The main 5 metrics of :
15000bod flow rate, at a 75% profit rate, on a WTI $100, PE of 33 & 14.8B OS
then producing an sp of 65p was somewhat eye-opening.. so a £10B company?

We can see that our neighbours are investing $1.4B further up the basin so would be guessing that aiming for our 1st metric of 15000bod would also require further investment too, & so then dropping that 75% profit margin.

The WTI of $100 will be dependent on COVID recovery and currently that’s not looking tooo good although I suspect a lot of countries will soon follow North American & South American (Brazil) leads, where it is ‘business as usual’, but then tied in with some regions having fairly good access to vaccines. WTI of $60 will perhaps be the norm for the foreseeable.
The 14.8B OS will soon get eclipsed by an extra 2.25B warrants that are still to be paid for at 0.26p albeit giving an extra £5.8M to the company & offsetting further wells. Perhaps 17B OS may be a better reflection.
Finally the PE ratio of 33, which is the January 2021 Forward PE for the USA O&G explorers/producers sector. The ‘forward’ then has one looking at AM’s recent ‘loudly quoted’ forecasted projection of ‘a plateau of 7000bopd over the next 7 years’ and immediately has one querying if he was simply implying one of the metrics for a Forward PE evaluation...

Adjusting the 5 main metrics then sees, for this cyclical auld geezer then sees..
7000bod, maintaining 75% profit margin, WTI of $62, forward PE 33 & 17B OS
& from your 2 charts, then giving an sp c.20p...??

Thanks Charlie, was a couple of nice spread sheets that you put together to aid the Pi with the various metrics involving the PE ratio. I would though go for a more cautious outlook than the recently high-lighted figures then needed for sp. 65p!
The main 5 metrics of :
15000bod flow rate, at a 75% profit rate, on a WTI $100, PE of 33 & 14.8B OS
then producing an sp of 65p was somewhat eye-opening.. so a £10B company?

We can see that our neighbours are investing $1.4B further up the basin so would be guessing that aiming for our 1st metric of 15000bod would also require further investment too, & so then dropping that 75% profit margin.

The WTI of $100 will be dependent on COVID recovery and currently that’s not looking tooo good although I suspect a lot of countries will soon follow North American & South American (Brazil) leads, where it is ‘business as usual’, but then tied in with some regions having fairly good access to vaccines. WTI of $60 will perhaps be the norm for the foreseeable.
The 14.8B OS will soon get eclipsed by an extra 2.25B warrants that are still to be paid for at 0.26p albeit giving an extra £5.8M to the company & offsetting further wells. Perhaps 17B OS may be a better reflection.
Finally the PE ratio of 33, which is the January 2021 Forward PE for the USA O&G explorers/producers sector. The ‘forward’ then has one looking at AM’s recent ‘loudly quoted’ forecasted projection of ‘a plateau of 7000bopd over the next 7 years’ and immediately has one querying if he was simply implying one of the metrics for a Forward PE evaluation...

Adjusting the 5 main metrics then sees, for this cyclical auld geezer then sees..
7000bod, maintaining 75% profit margin, WTI of $62, forward PE 33 & 17B OS
& from your 2 charts, then giving an sp c.20p...??

Africa’s richest man, Nigerian Aliko Dangoti had hoped to develop some refineries in Nigeria but there was so much back-handers & pay-offs from imported fuel, reputed to be in the Billions of $$$, that the senior ministers quickly made it difficult.

Lol, make your own refinery but the article does perhaps help explain why investors tend to stay clear now of onshore developments and ‘exposed’ pipelines & a lot of the inshore shallow rigs are within c.12 miles of the coast, again easy targets. Offshore deep water started 2004 with the Bonga (further out west), which was c.1000mtrs, but thinking though it may be a wee bit deeper than AM’s previous deep water experience of c.150mtrs in the North Sea...

Thanks T, reading that and i can now deduct 3 sugars from this morning’s 1st costa. Tq!

Thanks Charlie & Harry. Those January 2021, Forward PE figures, make for eye-watering reading. In addition to the 5 year -25% O&G attrition rate.

Now fully comprehending why AM was pushing that 7 year plateau figures. The next two months flow results will have every ii sitting up & watching and similar then to 88 where big players will be prepared to stretch themselves whilst awaiting confirmation of the forward PE. Theses figures though then also point quite strongly at us retaining the 57% BFU & the 67% CC figures, as would require some serious deal making to now step up..

Lol, hat-trick would be as follows
A. 4th May ‘..COPLG are in talks with NOP..
B. 5th May ‘... COPLG are in talks with CNOOC..
C. 6th May ‘... COPLG are in talks with SNEPCO...

Lol. Nice one bud.

‘..further updates to support the future value..’

And guessing that will be a simple word salad :
‘..COPL G are in talks with...’

Netback is a variable, dependent on WTI, bopd & condensate mmcf/d..
2020 & was then $25/bbl at WTI $40 giving c.$15/bbl expenditure.
2021 & netback then became $44.5/bbl at WTI $62,
So again approximately $15/bbl..

This is then tied into the oil output rate, which was then c.1400bopd, then amended to CPR estimate of 5000bopd whilst latest analysis then shows 7000bopd.

An initial increase also to be expected as we ramp up from 2 MMCF/d towards 10MMCF/d, so an additional expenditure in condensate (As perhaps seen with the slight increase from $15 to $17.5 in expenditure, even though there’s been a 50% increase in WTI) whilst the staffing /admin costs should remain static.

A future PR might then highlight netback sub $10 of the WTI..
Ie. is a fairly efficient operation.

‘Prospects’ will be at the fore of everyone’s calculations.
& there has indeed been a lot of froth generated.
In no small part, due to AM’s behaviour.

Prospects though will have many considering if AM can recapture past form, could he again lead a $4B O&G company, could he again have the banks offering that £1B cheque to develop further licenses. Quite a lot then plays on the next couple of months here.

Was noted in January that AM was playing a blinder; that he’s picked up a producing asset for less than 1/2 price (org. nav. was £99M at $40/bbl) and that this only incurred $41M / £29M and even this figure would be offset by the $7M IOU from NOP.

Fingers crossed and we can all be in that happy zone soon, be it joey’s 0.8p or any of the other calculations scribbled down by those of us, enjoying pondering. RNS perhaps.. & Atomic Senior has joined the club?

That’s cool bud, if the equation ‘1 chip short of a Happy Meal’ happens to be your life choice, then who am i to argue.

Joey, show me how you got your evaluation for 25p or indeed for any of your tea-leaves predictions and yes, i may then be inclined to listen to your evaluations..

Interesting to see joey that you have so far gone from
Jan. ‘..i am out, i am selling
Feb. ‘.. we are now fully priced in.. ‘ @0.38p
Mar. ‘...we will open at 0.8p..’
Apr. ‘.. we will open at.. up to 1p..’

So... Consistently 1 chip short of a Happy Meal ?

The market knows that +20% a month has already been achieved, so a wee improvement on total flows from 1350bopd of 30 to 50% might then see the totals range from 1800 to 2000bopd, giving COPL c.1000bopd by end of April.

AOG BFU @ 1000bopd

P/E = 16.98 (USA 2019 O&G average (pre-COVID))
Profit P = 1000 bopd x $45 netback x 360 = $16.2M
where EPS = 16.2M ($) / 17B (OS) = $ 0.00095 EPS
From which, P/E x EPS gives the sp ($)
16.98 x 0.00095 = sp ($) 0.0161 or 1.15p

I suspect the analysts will utilise the CPR estimates
(which increase from 1400 up to 5000bopd with the current 2 to 3.4MMCF/d)

Future P/E (x3) as per CPR is the more probable estimate used & becomes
Profit. 3000bopd x $45 netback x 360 = $48.6M
EPS. 48.6M / 17B = 0.00285($)
sp from. P/E x EPS.
16.98 x 0.00285 =. sp. ($) 0.0485 = 3.46p

CPR estimate then out-dated by more recent January evaluation,
With a figure of 7000bopd for BFU from uprated 10MMCF/d injection
57.8% to AOG, giving 4000bopd, from the 1st field..

Enough guesstimates to then entertain this wee soul prior to serious coffees.

Net Asset Valuation: (80% P2 Reserves of $308 million (10% NPV)) at c. $62/bbl. WTI
• $246 million

Still puts Atomic Senior as a serious player when he gets listed,
as per current holdings RNS’s:

RBC. 819M
HSBC. 741M
Clarendon. 543M
Hadron. 318M

Atomic Senior $4M x 0.714 (£)
£2.86M / avg.5 day sp c.0.35p. c.816M

3.2B of the shares currently wrapped up.

Nice one shaa. Tq.

Lol.

That’s the kind of thinking one expects from Joey.

Cuda currently have two operations within the Shannon on the BFU,
one of which (27%WI) is tied with AOG.
Does appear from that report as if they are burning through cash.
Maybe a $20M to $30M pay-off, would be very attractive to them,
would assist in getting their planned 34 new wells on line..

Hi Charlie, my understanding was that we have 100% ownership of AOG & SWP effective from December 1st 2020 :

Recitals.
Seller desires to sell, and Buyer desires to purchase, effective as if Closing (as defined below) had occurred on the 1st of December 2020 (the “Effective Date”) regardless of when Closing occurs, all of the issued and outstanding shares (the “Shares”) of capital stock of Southwestern Production Corp., a Colorado corporation with its registered office at 390 Union Boulevard, Suite 250, Lakewood, Colorado 80228 (“SWP”), and all of the issued and outstanding membership interests (together with any and all rights, privileges and interests in AOG resulting from, associated with or arising therefrom, the “Membership Interests”) in Atomic Oil & Gas LLC, a Colorado limited liability company with its registered office at 390 Union Boulevard, Suite 250, Lakewood, Colorado 80228 (“AOG” and, together with SWP and their respective Affiliates, collectively, the “Acquired Companies”), for the consideration and on the terms set forth in this Agreement.

5 months (150 days) ownership x 57% x avg.1400bopd x avg.$40 netback
$4.8M after costs.
(WTI then avg.$55 = $960k/month now equates to $1.065M/month)

In addition to the NOP’s 27% interest, using same values
= $2.27M ($2.5M today’s @ today’s WTI after costs)

So after costs, we should be sitting with c.$7.7M in revenues already gained.
In addition to a further $5M yet to be recuperated from NOP (currently insolvent)
So again we have substantial additional cash flows available for the next 2 months,
prior to the uprated 10mmcfg/d injections from April 1st, then kicking up the flow rate.
“Whoosh” being the technical term.